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Chicago White Sox
Chicago White Sox
Sox
Arizona Diamondbacks
Diamondbac
Arizona Diamondbacks
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +47.3% EV
64% Sharp Lean
64% Sharp Lean
MONEYLINE
Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox None
"CHW +129 ML: MC 48% win + extreme whales $1M+ vs 43% implied, 9.8 EV; over 8.5 model proj 22.2"
EV / $100
+9.8
Win Prob
48%
Edge
-2.0%
Size
1u
SPREAD Chicago White Sox 1.5
60%
TOTAL over 8.5
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 14.8% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$1064564 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: away Polymarket: 242 trades Kalshi: 66 trades Largest: $50496
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +156.0
Total
24.0
Edge: +15.5
Win Prob
34.0%
ML
194 / -194

Player Props Engine

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Chicago White Sox

Arizona Diamondbacks

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -160 / 134 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -154 / 139 -
Value Line - -165 / 130 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (260) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (135) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.5 (-120)
De-Vigged Fair Value 144 / -144 -147 / 147 O/U -112 / 112
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Chicago White Sox

P
Prelander Berroa
(RP) 60-day IL — The White Sox transferred Berroa (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Saturday.
60-Day-IL
K
Kyle Teel
(C) 10-day IL — Teel (hamstring) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Charlotte on Monday, MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jonathan Cannon
(SP) 15-day IL — Cannon exited Sunday's contest against the Royals in the bottom of the third inning with right hip irritation, Scott Merkin of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Chris Murphy
(RP) 15-day IL — Murphy earned the save in Sunday's 3-0 win over the Blue Jays, allowing no hits and one walk with one strikeout in a scoreless ninth inning.
15-Day-IL
B
Brooks Baldwin
(LF) 60-day IL — Baldwin underwent season-ending internal brace surgery April 1 to repair a right UCL tear, Brooke Fletcher of the Chicago Sports Network reports.
60-Day-IL
M
Mason Adams
(RP) day-to-day — The White Sox announced that Adams underwent successful Tommy John surgery Wednesday, Scott Merkin of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
M
Mike Vasil
(RP) 60-day IL — The White Sox transferred Vasil (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
A
Austin Hays
(LF) 10-day IL — Hays is expected to require a trip to the 10-day injured list after being diagnosed with a right hamstring strain, James Fegan of SoxMachine.com reports.
10-Day-IL
K
Ky Bush
(SP) 60-day IL — The White Sox placed Bush (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Monday.
60-Day-IL
D
Drew Thorpe
(SP) 15-day IL — The White Sox placed Thorpe (elbow) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
T
Tim Elko
(1B) out — Elko (knee) agreed to a minor-league contract with the White Sox on Sunday, Jack Ankony of SI.com reports.
Out

Arizona Diamondbacks

G
Gabriel Moreno
(C) 10-day IL — Moreno (oblique) is on track to be activated from the 10-day injured list Tuesday for the start of the Diamondbacks' road trip, John Gambadoro of Arizona Sports 98.7 FM reports.
10-Day-IL
C
Corbin Burnes
(SP) 60-day IL — Burnes (elbow) threw a bullpen session Tuesday, Jose M. Romero of the Arizona Republic reports.
60-Day-IL
A
A.J. Puk
(RP) 60-day IL — Puk (elbow) threw a bullpen session Tuesday and provided an update following the activity, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.
60-Day-IL
P
Pavin Smith
(1B) 60-day IL — Smith underwent surgery to remove bone chips from his left elbow Thursday, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.
60-Day-IL
A
A.J. Vukovich
(CF) out — Vukovich is expected to miss roughly 2-3 months with a left shoulder injury, Jack Sommers of SI.com reports.
Out
J
Jordan Lawlar
(SS) 60-day IL — The Diamondbacks transferred Lawlar (wrist) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
C
Carlos Santana
(1B) 10-day IL — The Diamondbacks placed Santana on the 10-day injured list Tuesday with a right adductor strain.
10-Day-IL
K
Kyle Amendt
(RP) day-to-day — Amendt underwent shoulder surgery Tuesday, Jack Sommers of SI.com reports.
Day-To-Day
B
Blake Walston
(SP) 60-day IL — Arizona placed Walston (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
C
Cristian Mena
(RP) 60-day IL — The Diamondbacks placed Mena (shoulder) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
T
Tyler Locklear
(1B) 10-day IL — The Diamondbacks placed Locklear (elbow) on the 10-day injured list Wednesday.
10-Day-IL
J
Justin Martinez
(RP) 60-day IL — Martinez (elbow) is throwing from up to 120 feet on flat ground, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
A
Andrew Saalfrank
(RP) 60-day IL — Saalfrank (shoulder) said Wednesday that he expects to be sidelined 10-16 months, Arizona Sports reports.
60-Day-IL
D
Derek Law
(RP) out — Law (forearm) signed a minor-league contract with the Diamondbacks on Tuesday, Aaron Hughes of SI.com reports.
Out
T
Tommy Henry
(RP) out — The Diamondbacks re-signed Henry (elbow) to a minor-league contract Monday.
Out
Game Preview
Chicago White Sox @ Arizona Diamondbacks
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (260)
Total Over 8.5
Key Injuries
Prelander Berroa 60-Day-IL
Kyle Teel 10-Day-IL
Gabriel Moreno 10-Day-IL
Corbin Burnes 60-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Chicago White Sox @ Arizona Diamondbacks

+9.8 EV
per $100 wagered
Chicago White Sox 64% Sharp Lean Calibrated
"CHW +129 ML: MC 48% win + extreme whales $1M+ vs 43% implied, 9.8 EV; over 8.5 model proj 22.2"
48% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 48%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -2.0%
Line Movement
Current ARI -1.5 -156 / CHW +1.5 +130 (est), ML ARI -156 / CHW +129, Total 8.5
Movement No significant movement
+EV on CHW ML at +129 (breakeven 43.7%, our 48%)
FULL ANALYSIS
Models diverge low agreement but MC 48% CHW win/22.2 total crushes market ARI 61% ML/8.5 total; extreme $1M+ whales on CHW confirm away edge vs Pinnacle fair 40.5% away. Equal -6.9% injuries both sides, no pitchers hurts but Omega even spread anchors value. Totals poor WR but 15.5 pt edge too big to ignore at low conf.
SHARP MONEY
Extreme whale volume $1M+ on away (institutional), sharp ML edge 1.1% away, spread mixed
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE Chicago White Sox None
+9.8 EV 64% 1u
SPREAD Chicago White Sox 1.5
+5.2 EV 60% 0.5u
TOTAL over 8.5
+12.4 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 64%
Chicago White Sox 129
  • MC sims 48% CHW win vs implied 43.7%, Bayesian edge -6.3% away + extreme whales $1M+
SPREAD PICK
○ 60%
Chicago White Sox 1.5
  • Omega spread 0.0 even, MC away covers +0 at 48% vs market ARI -1.5 heavy juice
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
OVER 8.5
  • MC proj 22.2 total (11.0-11.2), Omega 24.0 vs market 8.5
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
CHW +1.5 +130 (12.4 EV): omega 0.0 spread + MC 59% cover + extreme whales vs juiced ARI line
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