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Athletics
Athletics
Athletics
Baltimore Orioles
Orioles
Baltimore Orioles
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +45.5% EV EARLY VALUE
56% Lean
56% Lean
SPREAD
Athletics Athletics 2.2
"Athletics +2.2 (56% posterior, 2.2pt omega edge) + over 9.5 (MC 20.2 total) on home injury lambda -10.6%"
EV / $100
+6.8
Win Prob
53%
Edge
+2.9%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Athletics None
53%
TOTAL over 9.5
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 13.7% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$438740 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: away Polymarket: 214 trades Kalshi: 41 trades Largest: $39285
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +2.2
Total
22.5
Edge: +13.0
Win Prob
31.2%
ML
221 / -221

Player Props Engine

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Athletics

Baltimore Orioles

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -138 / 115 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -132 / 119 -
Value Line - -134 / 108 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (280) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (150) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 9.5 (103)
De-Vigged Fair Value 161 / -161 -126 / 126 O/U 110 / -110
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Athletics

D
Denzel Clarke
(CF) 10-day IL — Clarke (foot) has begun a running and hitting progression, Martin Gallegos of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
G
Gunnar Hoglund
(SP) 60-day IL — Hoglund (knee/back) was given a cortisone injection in his left hip May 1, Martin Gallegos of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
M
Max Muncy
(3B) 10-day IL — Muncy (hand) has yet to resume baseball activities, Martin Gallegos of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL

Baltimore Orioles

B
Blaze Alexander
(3B) day-to-day — Alexander is out of the lineup for Wednesday's game against the Marlins.
Day-To-Day
C
Cade Povich
(SP) 15-day IL — The Orioles placed Povich on the 15-day injured list Friday with left shoulder inflammation.
15-Day-IL
D
Dean Kremer
(SP) 15-day IL — Kremer (quadriceps) is expected to miss several weeks, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Jackson Holliday
(2B) 10-day IL — The Orioles sent Holliday (hand) to Double-A Chesapeake on Thursday to resume a rehab assignment.
10-Day-IL
C
Colin Selby
(RP) 60-day IL — The Orioles placed Selby on the 60-day injured list Saturday due to right shoulder inflammation, Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Richard Guasch
(SP) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
T
Trevor Rogers
(SP) 15-day IL — Rogers (illness) has rejoined the Orioles in Miami after doing some throwing at Camden Yards this past weekend, Matt Weyrich of The Baltimore Sun reports.
15-Day-IL
Z
Zach Eflin
(SP) 60-day IL — Eflin underwent Tommy John surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Andy Kostka of TheBaltimoreBanner.com reports.
60-Day-IL
W
Will Robertson
(LF) day-to-day — The Orioles reassigned Robertson to minor-league camp Wednesday, Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun reports.
Day-To-Day
F
Felix Bautista
(RP) 60-day IL — Bautista (shoulder) threw a baseball Tuesday for the first time since undergoing surgery last August, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
60-Day-IL
K
Keagan Gillies
(P) day-to-day — Gillies will be sidelined for at least six weeks with a quad injury, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
Day-To-Day
H
Heston Kjerstad
(LF) 10-day IL — The Orioles announced Monday that Kjerstad (hamstring) will be re-evaluated soon to determine his readiness for a rehab assignment, Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun reports.
10-Day-IL
L
Luis Vazquez
(SS) day-to-day — Orioles manager Craig Albernaz said Monday that Vazquez has been diagnosed with a broken right thumb, Andy Kostka of TheBaltimoreBanner.com reports.
Day-To-Day
Y
Yaramil Hiraldo
(RP) 60-day IL — Hiraldo is scheduled to meet with Dr. Neal ElAttrache on Monday to receive a second opinion on his inflamed right shoulder, Andy Kostka of TheBanner.com reports.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Athletics @ Baltimore Orioles
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (280)
Total Over 9.5
Key Injuries
Denzel Clarke 10-Day-IL
Gunnar Hoglund 60-Day-IL
Blaze Alexander Day-To-Day
Cade Povich 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Athletics @ Baltimore Orioles

+6.8 EV
per $100 wagered
Athletics 56% Lean
"Athletics +2.2 (56% posterior, 2.2pt omega edge) + over 9.5 (MC 20.2 total) on home injury lambda -10.6%"
53% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 53%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +2.9%
Line Movement
Current Orioles -2.2 / Athletics +2.2 | Total 9.5 | ML Orioles -138 / Athletics +115
Movement No significant movement
Home injuries -10.6% impact vs away -4.1% (net +6.5% away edge)
+10.8pp edge on Athletics ML at +115; breakeven 46.5%, our posterior 52.9% clears by 6.4pp
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega spread even vs market -2.2 Orioles (2.2pt edge Athletics) + Bayesian 56% Athletics cover, backed by home -10.6% injury hit and whale $317k extreme away. MC 9.9-10.3 proj fuels 65% over 9.5 before total adj. ML +115 offers 13.7 EV with sharp/whale away.
SHARP MONEY
ML sharp edge 1.3% away + whale extreme volume $317k on away; spread sharp home conflicting but +EV away cover 61.7% fair
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Athletics 2.2
+6.8 EV 56% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Athletics None
+13.7 EV 53% 1u
TOTAL over 9.5
+15.2 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 53%
Athletics 115
  • Bayesian posterior 52.9% Athletics win vs market 42%, +10.8pp edge; whale extreme $317k volume (44 wallets) on away
SPREAD PICK
○ 56%
Athletics 2.2
  • Posterior 56.3% Athletics cover +2.2 vs market 50%, omega spread 0.0 (2.2pt edge) + MC away cover 49.2%
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 60%
OVER 9.5
  • Over posterior 65.2% vs market 50% (+15.2pp), MC projected 20.2 total, omega 22.5
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Market juices Orioles -138/-2.2 but Omega even +10.8pp Bayesian Athletics edge, extreme whales $302k away, 20-run MC proj smashes 9.5 total
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