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MLB
Seattle Mariners
Seattle Mariners
Mariners
Houston Astros
Astros
Houston Astros
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +46.5% EV
60% Lean
60% Lean
SPREAD
Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners -1.5
"Mariners ML +0.4 EV (59.1% posterior >58.8% implied) + Over 8.5 +24 EV on 19+ projected total"
EV / $100
+4.1
Win Prob
59%
Edge
+9.1%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Seattle Mariners None
59%
TOTAL over 8.5
62%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 19.1% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: away Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$1037445 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (88% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 133 trades Kalshi: 2137 trades Largest: $35624
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +143.0
Total
22.5
Edge: +14.0
Win Prob
32.0%
ML
213 / -213

Player Props Engine

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Seattle Mariners

Houston Astros

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 120 / -143 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 124 / -137 -
Value Line - 116 / -143 -
Sharp Action Best Line 3.0 (-330) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-136) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.5 (-101)
De-Vigged Fair Value -129 / 129 131 / -131 O/U 106 / -106
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Seattle Mariners

B
Bryce Miller
(SP) 15-day IL — Miller (oblique) will return from the injured list to start Wednesday's game against the Astros, Shannon Drayer of SeattleSports.com reports
15-Day-IL
M
Miles Mastrobuoni
(3B) 60-day IL — Seattle transferred Mastrobuoni (calf) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Monday.
60-Day-IL
T
Teddy McGraw
(SP) day-to-day — McGraw is working his way back from right elbow issues, Jonathan Mayo of MLB Pipeline reports.
Day-To-Day
P
Patrick Wisdom
(1B) 10-day IL — The Mariners placed Wisdom on the 10-day injured list Friday due to a left oblique strain, retroactive to Wednesday.
10-Day-IL
V
Victor Robles
(RF) 10-day IL — Robles (pectoral) will begin a rehab assignment at Triple-A Tacoma on Sunday, Adam Jude of The Seattle Times reports.
10-Day-IL
L
Logan Evans
(SP) 60-day IL — The Mariners placed Evans (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Monday.
60-Day-IL
C
Carlos Vargas
(RP) 60-day IL — Vargas (lat) has suffered a setback in his recovery, Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times reports.
60-Day-IL
W
Will Wilson
(3B) 10-day IL — The Mariners placed Wilson on the 10-day injured list Saturday due to a fractured left thumb.
10-Day-IL
G
Gabe Speier
(RP) 15-day IL — The Mariners placed Speier on the 15-day injured list Monday with left shoulder inflammation, Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times reports.
15-Day-IL
M
Matt Brash
(RP) 15-day IL — Brash (lat) began playing catch Tuesday, Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times reports.
15-Day-IL

Houston Astros

C
Carlos Correa
(SS) 10-day IL — Correa is scheduled to undergo surgery Monday in Houston to repair the tendon in his left ankle, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jeremy Pena
(SS) 10-day IL — Astros manager Joe Espada said Pena (hamstring) is expected to begin a minor-league rehab assignment Tuesday or Wednesday, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
10-Day-IL
T
Tatsuya Imai
(SP) 15-day IL — Imai (arm) will be reinstated from the 15-day injured list to start Tuesday against the Mariners, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
H
Hunter Brown
(SP) 60-day IL — The Astros transferred Brown (shoulder) to the 60-day injured list Saturday.
60-Day-IL
B
Bennett Sousa
(RP) 15-day IL — The Astros placed Sousa on the 15-day injured list Saturday with left elbow inflammation, retroactive to Wednesday, Julia Morales of Space City Home Network reports.
15-Day-IL
H
Hayden Wesneski
(SP) 60-day IL — The Astros announced Monday that Wesneski (elbow) is continuing to complete regular bullpen sessions as part of his throwing progression, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Joey Loperfido
(LF) 10-day IL — The Astros announced Monday that Loperfido (quadriceps) has started light running and light baseball activity, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jake Meyers
(CF) 10-day IL — The Astros announced Monday that Meyers (oblique) has started swinging a bat and reincorporating other baseball activities, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
T
Taylor Trammell
(CF) 10-day IL — The Astros announced Monday that Trammell (groin) has begun a running progression in addition to taking part in light baseball activity, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
10-Day-IL
R
Ronel Blanco
(SP) 60-day IL — The Astros announced Monday that Blanco (elbow) is continuing to complete regular bullpen sessions as part of his throwing progression, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
60-Day-IL
L
Lance McCullers Jr.
(SP) day-to-day — McCullers was removed from his start Wednesday against the Dodgers in the top of the third inning after he appeared to be contending with a blister on his pitching hand, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports. He was charged with six earned runs on four hits and three walks over 2.2 innings prior to his departure.
Day-To-Day
B
Brandon Walter
(SP) 60-day IL — The Astros placed Walter (elbow) on the 60-day injured list.
60-Day-IL
W
Walker Janek
(C) day-to-day — Double-A Corpus Christi placed Janek on its 7-day injured list Sunday due to an unspecified injury.
Day-To-Day
N
Nate Pearson
(RP) 15-day IL — Pearson (elbow) permitted one run on one hit and four walks over two innings in his first rehab start with Triple-A Sugar Land on Thursday.
15-Day-IL
L
Lucas Spence
(OF) day-to-day — Double-A Corpus Christi placed Spence on its 7-day injured list April 22 due to an unspecified injury.
Day-To-Day
J
Josh Hader
(RP) 60-day IL — Hader (biceps) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Sugar Land on Tuesday, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
Y
Yainer Diaz
(C) 10-day IL — The Astros placed Diaz (oblique) on the 10-day injured list Tuesday, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
C
Cristian Javier
(SP) 60-day IL — The Astros announced Monday that Javier (shoulder) will begin a throwing progression this week, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 3.0 (-330)
Total Over 8.5
Key Injuries
Bryce Miller 15-Day-IL
Miles Mastrobuoni 60-Day-IL
Carlos Correa 10-Day-IL
Jeremy Pena 10-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros

+4.1 EV
per $100 wagered
Seattle Mariners 60% Lean
"Mariners ML +0.4 EV (59.1% posterior >58.8% implied) + Over 8.5 +24 EV on 19+ projected total"
59% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 59%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +9.1%
Line Movement
Current ML: HOU +119 / SEA -143, Spread: SEA -143, Total: 8.5
Movement No significant line movement detected
net_injury_advantage_away
Slight +0.4 EV on Mariners ML; massive +24.4 EV on over 8.5
FULL ANALYSIS
Posterior anchors Mariners ML at 59.1% (+0.3pp edge) with sharp divergence confirming despite $1M+ whales on Astros; spread sharp edge 19.1% adds support. Over 8.5 screams value at 65.2% posterior when MC/Omega project 19.4-22.5 total vs market 8.5. Net injuries favor Mariners -1.9%, H2H model 61% on Mariners sides.
SHARP MONEY
19.1% sharp edge on spread + 1.2% ML favoring Mariners; strong spread signal offset by extreme whale volume on Astros home
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Seattle Mariners -1.5
+4.1 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Seattle Mariners None
+0.4 EV 59%
TOTAL over 8.5
+24.4 EV 62% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 59%
Seattle Mariners -143
  • Bayesian posterior 59.1% vs market 58.8% implied probability
SPREAD PICK
○ 60%
Seattle Mariners -1.5
  • Sharp spread divergence 19.1% favoring away + cross-market ML/spread consensus on Mariners
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 62%
OVER 8.5
  • Posterior 65.2% over probability vs market 50%; Omega/MC project 19.4-22.5 total
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
SEA runline +46.8 EV vs Pinnacle fair + Bayesian 65% over 8.5 on 19.3 MC total
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