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MLB
New York Yankees
New York Yankees
Yankees
Houston Astros
Astros
Houston Astros
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +40.5% EV
60% Lean
60% Lean
SPREAD
New York Yankees New York Yankees -1.5
"Sharp 17.6% spread edge to Yankees -1.5 (+40.5% EV) vs whale home action, models project 54-63% away win vs 59% implied"
EV / $100
+4.5
Win Prob
57%
Edge
+7.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE New York Yankees None
58%
TOTAL over 9.5
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 17.6% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: away Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$1837372 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (88% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 447 trades Kalshi: 86 trades Largest: $489828
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +143.0
Total
24.0
Edge: +14.5
Win Prob
25.1%
ML
298 / -298

Player Props Engine

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New York Yankees

Houston Astros

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 113 / -135 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 117 / -129 -
Value Line - 116 / -143 -
Sharp Action Best Line 3.0 (-300) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-135) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 9.5 (-112)
De-Vigged Fair Value -128 / 128 123 / -123 O/U -104 / 104
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

New York Yankees

G
Giancarlo Stanton
(DH) day-to-day — Stanton (calf) isn't in the lineup for Saturday's game against the Astros.
Day-To-Day
A
Angel Chivilli
(RP) 15-day IL — The Yankees recalled Chivilli from Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre on Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
C
Carlos Rodon
(SP) 15-day IL — Rodon (elbow) tossed 4.1 scoreless innings in a rehab outing with High-A Hudson Valley on Friday, allowing one hit and issuing one walk while striking out four batters.
15-Day-IL
G
Gerrit Cole
(SP) 15-day IL — Cole (elbow) pitched 4.1 innings, allowing two runs on five hits while striking out four in his rehab start with High-A Hudson on Thursday, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports.
15-Day-IL
A
Anthony Volpe
(SS) 10-day IL — Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Wednesday on Foul Territory that Volpe (shoulder) is "still ten days [or] two weeks away [from being reinstated off the IL], I would think."
10-Day-IL
C
Clarke Schmidt
(SP) 60-day IL — Schmidt (elbow) threw a bullpen session Friday, Pete Caldera of The Bergen Record reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Rafael Montero
(RP) out — Montero continues to have visa issues and hasn't yet arrived at Yankees camp, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
Out
T
Travis MacGregor
(SP) day-to-day — MacGregor signed a minor-league contract with the Angels on Monday.
Day-To-Day

Houston Astros

T
Tatsuya Imai
(SP) 15-day IL — Astros manager Joe Espada told reporters that Imai's (arm) bullpen session Friday "looked good," and that the right-hander's next step is to embark on a rehab assignment, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
H
Hunter Brown
(SP) 15-day IL — Brown (shoulder) began a throwing program Tuesday, playing catching from 75 feet, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
N
Nate Pearson
(RP) 15-day IL — Pearson (elbow) permitted one run on one hit and four walks over two innings in his first rehab start with Triple-A Sugar Land on Thursday.
15-Day-IL
T
Taylor Trammell
(LF) 10-day IL — Manager Joe Espada stated after Monday's game against the Guardians that Trammell (groin) will "be out for a little bit," Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Joey Loperfido
(LF) 10-day IL — Astros manager Joe Espada said that Loperfido (quadriceps) will do some baseball activities Monday, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jeremy Pena
(SS) 10-day IL — Astros manager Joe Espada said that Pena (hamstring) did some running Monday, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
10-Day-IL
C
Cody Bolton
(RP) 15-day IL — Bolton (back) will throw a live batting practice session Tuesday, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
15-Day-IL
N
Nick Allen
(SS) 10-day IL — Allen was scratched from Saturday's lineup due to back spasms, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
10-Day-IL
C
Cristian Javier
(SP) 60-day IL — The Astros transferred Javier (shoulder) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Monday.
60-Day-IL
Z
Zach Dezenzo
(LF) 10-day IL — Dezenzo (elbow) will begin a rehab assignment with Double-A Corpus Christi on Friday.
10-Day-IL
J
Josh Hader
(RP) 60-day IL — Hader (biceps) threw 20 pitches in a live batting practice session Tuesday and said afterward that it was akin to his first live BP of spring training, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jake Meyers
(CF) 10-day IL — Meyers was removed from Wednesday's game versus the Rockies in the second inning due to lower-back tightness, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
10-Day-IL
R
Ronel Blanco
(SP) 60-day IL — The Astros transferred Blanco (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Friday.
60-Day-IL
H
Hayden Wesneski
(SP) 60-day IL — The Astros transferred Wesneski (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Monday, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Brandon Walter
(SP) 60-day IL — The Astros placed Walter (elbow) on the 60-day injured list.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
New York Yankees @ Houston Astros
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 3.0 (-300)
Total Over 9.5
Key Injuries
Giancarlo Stanton Day-To-Day
Angel Chivilli 15-Day-IL
Tatsuya Imai 15-Day-IL
Hunter Brown 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

New York Yankees @ Houston Astros

+4.5 EV
per $100 wagered
New York Yankees 60% Lean Calibrated
"Sharp 17.6% spread edge to Yankees -1.5 (+40.5% EV) vs whale home action, models project 54-63% away win vs 59% implied"
57% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 57%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +7.0%
Line Movement
Current NYY -1.5 -143 / HOU +1.5 +143 (assumed run line), ML NYY -143 / HOU +119, Total 9.5 (-110)
Movement No significant line movement detected
Marginal negative EV on away ML at current odds; value tighter on run line per +EV analysis
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian edge -8.5% favoring Yankees (posterior 37.2% Astros win vs market prior 45.7%), MC 53.7% away win but moderate model agreement. Sharp 17.6% spread divergence to away (+40.5% EV), extreme whales on Astros reduce by 4 pts. Injuries net +4.1% home but away momentum 7.4 vs 3.9; omega total 24 crushes 9.5 but totals 48.7% historical WR.
SHARP MONEY
17.6% sharp edge on spread favoring away, strong signal despite no RLM
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD New York Yankees -1.5
+4.5 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE New York Yankees None
+1.2 EV 58% 0.5u
TOTAL over 9.5
+2.1 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 58%
New York Yankees -143
  • Bayesian posterior 62.8% away win (MC 53.7%) vs implied 58.8%, moderate model agreement
SPREAD PICK
○ 60%
New York Yankees -1.5
  • +40.5% EV on away spread vs Pinnacle fair value (43.9% cover prob)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
OVER 9.5
  • MC projected 21.4 total (10.2-11.2) vs market 9.5, omega total 24.0
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Astros +2.2: OMEGA pick'em vs -2.2 market overjuice, MC -0.3 margin +53% fair cover = +4.8 EV
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