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Chicago White Sox
Chicago White Sox
Sox
Athletics
Athletics
Athletics
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +41.5% EV EARLY VALUE
60% Lean
60% Lean
SPREAD
Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 2.2
"Omega 0/-157 away ML & 24 total vs market -2.2/-160 home & 9.5 (+2.2/-14.5 edges); White Sox +2.2/+139 + over"
EV / $100
+5.1
Win Prob
53%
Edge
+3.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Chicago White Sox None
62%
TOTAL over 9.5
58%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 14.1% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$1211158 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (90% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 205 trades Kalshi: 42 trades Largest: $148841
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +2.2
Total
24.0
Edge: +14.5
Win Prob
39.0%
ML
157 / -157

Player Props Engine

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Chicago White Sox

Athletics

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -165 / 139 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -160 / 144 -
Value Line - -157 / 125 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (230) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (125) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 9.5 (-114)
De-Vigged Fair Value 133 / -133 -153 / 153 O/U -106 / 106
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Chicago White Sox

K
Kyle Teel
(C) 10-day IL — Teel (hamstring) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Charlotte on Monday, MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jonathan Cannon
(SP) 15-day IL — Cannon exited Sunday's contest against the Royals in the bottom of the third inning with right hip irritation, Scott Merkin of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Chris Murphy
(RP) 15-day IL — Murphy earned the save in Sunday's 3-0 win over the Blue Jays, allowing no hits and one walk with one strikeout in a scoreless ninth inning.
15-Day-IL
B
Brooks Baldwin
(LF) 60-day IL — Baldwin underwent season-ending internal brace surgery April 1 to repair a right UCL tear, Brooke Fletcher of the Chicago Sports Network reports.
60-Day-IL
M
Mason Adams
(RP) day-to-day — The White Sox announced that Adams underwent successful Tommy John surgery Wednesday, Scott Merkin of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
M
Mike Vasil
(RP) 60-day IL — The White Sox transferred Vasil (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
A
Austin Hays
(LF) 10-day IL — Hays is expected to require a trip to the 10-day injured list after being diagnosed with a right hamstring strain, James Fegan of SoxMachine.com reports.
10-Day-IL
K
Ky Bush
(SP) 60-day IL — The White Sox placed Bush (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Monday.
60-Day-IL
P
Prelander Berroa
(RP) 15-day IL — The White Sox placed Berroa (elbow) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
D
Drew Thorpe
(SP) 15-day IL — The White Sox placed Thorpe (elbow) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
T
Tim Elko
(1B) out — Elko (knee) agreed to a minor-league contract with the White Sox on Sunday, Jack Ankony of SI.com reports.
Out

Athletics

G
Gunnar Hoglund
(SP) 60-day IL — Hoglund received a PRP injection for his back this past Thursday, Martin Gallegos of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Chicago White Sox @ Athletics
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (230)
Total Over 9.5
Key Injuries
Kyle Teel 10-Day-IL
Jonathan Cannon 15-Day-IL
Gunnar Hoglund 60-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Chicago White Sox @ Athletics

+5.1 EV
per $100 wagered
Chicago White Sox 60% Lean Calibrated
"Omega 0/-157 away ML & 24 total vs market -2.2/-160 home & 9.5 (+2.2/-14.5 edges); White Sox +2.2/+139 + over"
53% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 53%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +3.0%
Line Movement
Current Athletics -2.2 / Chicago White Sox +2.2 | O/U 9.5 | ML Athletics -160 / Chicago White Sox +139
Movement No significant movement detected
Net injury impact +5.5% home edge (White Sox -6.9%)
+24.7 EV on Chicago White Sox ML +139 (breakeven 41.8%, our 53% exceeds by 11.2%)
Model: 51.8% win rate | n=552 — ML profitable in strong tier; leans profitable spreads/ML (53.8-56.6%)
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega Poisson/ELO pegs 12-12 scores (total 24) vs market's puny 9.5 and -2.2 Athletics spread—pure value on White Sox sides + over. MC 10.4-10.2 avg confirms 92% over 9.5 hit rate despite no pitchers. Injuries favor home +5.5% but not 2+ runs; mixed sharps/whales (home lean) ignored vs Tier1 model edge.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Chicago White Sox 2.2
+5.1 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Chicago White Sox None
+24.7 EV 62% 0.5u
TOTAL over 9.5
+68.2 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 62%
Chicago White Sox 139
  • Omega ML away -157 (61% implied) vs market +139 (41.8% breakeven), our 53% crushes
SPREAD PICK
● 60%
Chicago White Sox 2.2
  • Omega spread 0.0 vs market -2.2 (2.2 pt edge), MC margin +0.2 home supports 55% away cover
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
OVER 9.5
  • Omega/MC project 20.6-24 total vs 9.5 market (14.5 pt edge), over 9.5 hits 92%
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Athletics +152 (48% model vs 40% impl) w/ extreme whales + Sox injuries; MC 75% under 24.0 (+43 EV)
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