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MLB
Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins
Marlins
Los Angeles Dodgers
Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +44.7% EV
65% Sharp Lean
65% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Miami Marlins Miami Marlins 1.5
"Even omega spread 0.0 + 22.5 total vs -226/8 juice: Marlins +1.5 (MC 52% cover) & over 8 (+24 EV)"
EV / $100
+12.0
Win Prob
70%
Edge
+20.3%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE Los Angeles Dodgers None
62%
TOTAL over 8.0
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 16.4% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$1308530 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (72% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 587 trades Kalshi: 634 trades Largest: $30783
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +226.0
Total
22.5
Edge: +14.5
Win Prob
47.4%
ML
111 / -111

Player Props Engine

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Miami Marlins

Los Angeles Dodgers

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -225 / 185 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -217 / 192 -
Value Line - -230 / 180 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (200) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (101) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.0 (-111)
De-Vigged Fair Value 107 / -107 -206 / 206 O/U -104 / 104
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Miami Marlins

L
Liam Hicks
(C) day-to-day — Hicks went 1-for-4 with a three-run home run in Monday's loss to the Dodgers.
Day-To-Day
P
Pete Fairbanks
(RP) 15-day IL — Fairbanks described the issue that forced him out of Monday's 5-4 loss to the Dodgers as numbness in his pitching hand, a potential recurrence of the nerve issue that sidelined him in April 2024 during his time with the Rays, Christina De Nicola of MLB.com reports. "Just a lot of diminished sensation," Fairbanks said after the game. "Felt like any movement of the wrist would exacerbate just loss of sensation in the index finger. So we'll see where it goes and how to work on it."
15-Day-IL
G
Griffin Conine
(LF) 10-day IL — Conine will undergo a left hamstring tendon excision next week, Christina De Nicola of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
A
Adam Mazur
(SP) 60-day IL — The Marlins placed Mazur (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
R
Ronny Henriquez
(RP) 60-day IL — The Marlins placed Henriquez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Thursday.
60-Day-IL
J
Jesus Tinoco
(RP) out — The Marlins re-signed Tinoco (elbow) to a minor-league contract Jan. 5.
Out

Los Angeles Dodgers

L
Landon Knack
(SP) 60-day IL — The Dodgers placed Knack on the 15-day injured list Monday due to an intercostal strain, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
M
Mookie Betts
(SS) 10-day IL — Betts (oblique) could kick off a minor-league rehab assignment as soon as the weekend of May 1-3, per MLB.com.
10-Day-IL
T
Tommy Edman
(2B) 10-day IL — Edman (ankle) has been facing live pitching but is still doing only straight-line running, per MLB.com.
10-Day-IL
B
Blake Snell
(SP) 15-day IL — Snell (shoulder) will draw another start with Single-A Ontario on Tuesday.
15-Day-IL
B
Brusdar Graterol
(RP) 15-day IL — Graterol's velocity during recent bullpen sessions has reached the high-90s as he rehabs from right shoulder surgery, per MLB.com.
15-Day-IL
E
Edwin Diaz
(RP) 15-day IL — Diaz shared on his personal Instagram account Wednesday that he underwent surgery on his throwing elbow.
15-Day-IL
B
Brock Stewart
(RP) 15-day IL — Stewart (shoulder) had his rehab assignment transferred from Single-A Ontario to Triple-A Oklahoma City, per MLB.com.
15-Day-IL
B
Ben Casparius
(RP) 15-day IL — Casparius said Saturday at DodgerFest, the team's fan event, that he prepared himself as a starting pitcher this offseason, Steve Webb of DodgersBeat.com reports.
15-Day-IL
G
Gavin Stone
(SP) 60-day IL — Stone (shoulder) has resumed throwing, per MLB.com.
60-Day-IL
J
Jake Cousins
(RP) 60-day IL — The Dodgers transferred Cousins (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
E
Enrique Hernandez
(1B) 60-day IL — Hernandez (elbow) took on-field batting practice at Dodger Stadium on Saturday, Jack Harris of the California Post reports.
60-Day-IL
E
Evan Phillips
(RP) 60-day IL — Phillips (elbow) threw a bullpen session to a squatting catcher March 17, per MLB.com.
60-Day-IL
B
Bobby Miller
(SP) 60-day IL — The Dodgers placed Miller (shoulder) on the 60-day injured list Monday.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Miami Marlins @ Los Angeles Dodgers
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (200)
Total Over 8.0
Key Injuries
Liam Hicks Day-To-Day
Pete Fairbanks 15-Day-IL
Landon Knack 60-Day-IL
Mookie Betts 10-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Miami Marlins @ Los Angeles Dodgers

+12.0 EV
per $100 wagered
Miami Marlins 65% Sharp Lean
"Even omega spread 0.0 + 22.5 total vs -226/8 juice: Marlins +1.5 (MC 52% cover) & over 8 (+24 EV)"
70% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 70%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +20.3%
Line Movement
Current LAD -1.5 (-226) / MIA +1.5 (+185 est) | Total 8.0 (-110)
Movement No significant line movement detected
Net injury advantage home (+4.1%)
Slim +1.4 EV on home ML; +24.5 EV over total 8; +12 EV est Marlins +1.5 vs Market Consensus fair 51.8% away cover
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega Poisson/ELO projects dead-even 11.2-11.2 scores (spread 0.0, total 22.5) vs DraftKings Dodgers -226/8 total misprice. Bayesian fuses slight 70.3% home win but juice kills ML value (+1.4 EV); Marlins +1.5 shines w/ MC 47.8% home cover at even + Pinnacle fair 51.8% away. Over 8 crushes w/ 65.2% posterior, 19.6 MC total despite no weather; whales extreme home but spread value away.
SHARP MONEY
Strong 16.4% sharp edge spread home + moderate ML away offset; +44.7% EV home spread at some books
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Miami Marlins 1.5
+12.0 EV 65% 1u
MONEYLINE Los Angeles Dodgers None
+1.4 EV 62% 0.5u
TOTAL over 8.0
+24.5 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 62%
Los Angeles Dodgers -226
  • Bayesian posterior 70.3% vs implied 69.3% but <5% over breakeven threshold
SPREAD PICK
● 65%
Miami Marlins 1.5
  • Omega spread 0.0 + MC home cover 47.8% at even vs market -1.5 heavy juice
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 60%
OVER 8.0
  • Posterior 65.2% over 8 vs 50% implied; omega 22.5 + MC 19.6 projected
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Marlins +250 ML +84 EV as Omega 52% prob crushes 28.6% breakeven vs juiced Dodgers market
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