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New York Mets
New York Mets
Mets
San Francisco Giants
Giants
San Francisco Giants
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
64% Sharp Lean
64% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants 0.0
"Giants +104 ML crushes with 67% model prob vs 55.8% implied (+14.2 EV); OMEGA total edge 17pts on 24 projected runs"
EV / $100
+3.8
Win Prob
67%
Edge
+17.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE San Francisco Giants None
67%
TOTAL over 7.0
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +126.0
Total
24.0
Edge: +17.0
Win Prob
32.6%
ML
206 / -206

Player Props Engine

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New York Mets

San Francisco Giants

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Pinnacle - 107 / -118 ↑ -
Pinnacle 1.5 (-165) - -
Pinnacle - - Over 7.0 (-115)
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

New York Mets

M
Mike Tauchman
(RF) out — Tauchman underwent surgery Thursday to repair the torn meniscus in his left knee, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.
Out
A
A.J. Minter
(RP) 15-day IL — The Mets placed Minter (lat) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
N
Nate Lavender
(RP) day-to-day — Lavender (elbow) cleared outright waivers Wednesday and was returned to the Mets.
Day-To-Day
J
Justin Hagenman
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Hagenman on the 60-day injured list Saturday due to a rib fracture.
60-Day-IL
B
Brandon Waddell
(RP) day-to-day — The Mets outrighted Waddell to Triple-A Syracuse on Friday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
R
Robert Stock
(RP) out — Stock experienced shoulder discomfort while playing with Team Israel in the World Baseball Classic and will undergo testing, Laura Albanese of Newsday reports.
Out
G
Grae Kessinger
(3B) out — Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said that Kessinger will get imaging done after suffering a left knee injury in Friday's Grapefruit League game against the Cardinals, SNY Mets reports.
Out
D
Dedniel Nunez
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets transferred Nunez (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Monday.
60-Day-IL
T
Tylor Megill
(SP) 60-day IL — The Mets and Megill (elbow) avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $2.5 million contract Thursday, Ari Alexander of 7 News Boston reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Reed Garrett
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Garrett (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.
60-Day-IL

San Francisco Giants

J
Jose Butto
(RP) day-to-day — Butto was removed during the eighth inning of the Giants' 7-1 loss to the Padres on Wednesday due to right arm tightness, Justice delos Santos of The San Jose Mercury News reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Joel Peguero
(RP) 15-day IL — Peguero (hamstring) threw a 20-pitch live batting practice session Monday, Shayna Rubin of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.
15-Day-IL
S
Sam Hentges
(RP) 15-day IL — Hentges (knee/shoulder) threw 20 pitches during his live batting practice in Arizona on Monday, Shayna Rubin of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.
15-Day-IL
H
Hayden Birdsong
(RP) 60-day IL — Birdsong underwent successful UCL reconstruction surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Reiver Sanmartin
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants placed Sanmartin (hip) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
P
Parks Harber
(3B) out — The Giants announced Wednesday that Harber has been diagnosed with a Grade 2 right hamstring strain and will require 4-to-6 weeks of recovery time, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area reports.
Out
R
Rowan Wick
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants placed Wick (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Sunday, Justice delos Santos of The San Jose Mercury News reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jason Foley
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants signed Foley (shoulder) to a one-year contract Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
R
Randy Rodriguez
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants placed Rodriguez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday, Justice delos Santos of The San Jose Mercury News reports.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
New York Mets @ San Francisco Giants
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 1.5 (-165)
Total Over 7.0
Key Injuries
Mike Tauchman Out
A.J. Minter 15-Day-IL
Jose Butto Day-To-Day
Joel Peguero 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

New York Mets @ San Francisco Giants

+3.8 EV
per $100 wagered
San Francisco Giants 64% Sharp Lean
"Giants +104 ML crushes with 67% model prob vs 55.8% implied (+14.2 EV); OMEGA total edge 17pts on 24 projected runs"
67% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 67%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +17.0%
Line Movement
Current NYM -126 / Giants +104 / Total 7.0
Movement No movement data
Giants ML +104 offers +14.2 EV vs market pricing Mets at 55.8% when OMEGA sees 67% Giants win probability from Poisson/ELO convergence
Model: 55.8% win rate | n=129 — Based on N=129 MLB outcomes; totals losing consistently, cap <55
FULL ANALYSIS
OMEGA Poisson bombs out 12-12 expected runs (24 total) vs market's puny 7.0 while projecting Giants ML edge to 67% despite -126 Mets pricing—classic early line inefficiency. ELO gives home 47.6% but Poisson home win 26% flips to value on +104 after vig. Injuries hit relievers only; no rotation impact confirmed but Webb/Myers leaders project starter edges.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD San Francisco Giants 0.0
+3.8 EV 64% 0.5u
MONEYLINE San Francisco Giants None
+14.2 EV 67% 1.0u
TOTAL over 7.0
+2.1 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 65%
New York Mets -187
  • Omega model win prob 65.1% vs implied 65.1%; ELO favors Mets by 1.4 runs
SPREAD PICK
● 62%
New York Mets +0.0
  • Omega spread 0.0 but ELO projects Mets +1.4 run edge in even matchup
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 60%
UNDER 24.0 24.0
  • Oracle Park suppresses scoring; model expected 24.0 too high for pitcher-friendly venue
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Mets -187 model ML even matchup but ELO +1.4 edge + Giants bullpen injuries; fade model total 24.0 Oracle under
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