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Miami Heat
Miami Heat
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Indiana Pacers
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Indiana Pacers
Full Game Analysis
NBA
Ω OMEGA PICK
68% Strong
68% Strong
MONEYLINE
Indiana Pacers Indiana Pacers
"Pacers -140 ML +4.2 EV: home depth exploits Rozier-out Heat (12% performance drop), model 62% win prob vs 58% implied"
EV / $100
+4.2
Win Prob
62%
Edge
+12.0%
Size
1u
SPREAD Indiana Pacers -2.5
65%
TOTAL Under 215.5 215.5
67%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

Player Props Engine

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Miami Heat

Indiana Pacers

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Bovada Best Line - 335 / -450 ↑ -
Pinnacle - 346 / -435 -
Bovada Best Line - - Over 26.5 (200)
Pinnacle - - Over 245.5 (-107)
Pinnacle Best Line 9.5 (-102) - -
Kambi 9.5 (-114) ↓ - -
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Miami Heat

N
Norman Powell
(G) day-to-day — Powell is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Pacers due to back spasms.
Day-To-Day
T
Terry Rozier
(G) out — The Heat are planning to release Rozier in the near future, Anthony Chiang of the Miami Herald reports.
Out

Indiana Pacers

A
Aaron Nesmith
(G) day-to-day — Nesmith (back) is questionable for Sunday's game against Miami.
Day-To-Day
O
Obi Toppin
(F) day-to-day — Toppin is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Heat due to lower-back soreness and right foot injury management.
Day-To-Day
T
T.J. McConnell
(G) day-to-day — McConnell is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against Miami due to right hamstring soreness.
Day-To-Day
J
Jarace Walker
(F) day-to-day — Walker (back) is questionable to play in Sunday's game against Miami.
Day-To-Day
A
Andrew Nembhard
(G) day-to-day — Nembhard (back) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Heat.
Day-To-Day
P
Pascal Siakam
(F) day-to-day — Siakam is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Heat due to right knee injury management.
Day-To-Day
I
Ivica Zubac
(C) out — Zubac will miss the rest of the season with a fractured rib, Dustin Dopirak of The Indianapolis Star reports.
Out
J
Johnny Furphy
(G) out — Furphy was diagnosed with a torn right ACL on Monday and will miss the remainder of the season, Michael Scotto of USA Today reports.
Out
T
Tyrese Haliburton
(G) out — Haliburton said Tuesday in his appearance on the "Mind the Game" podcast that he has resumed taking part in 3-on-3 and 4-on-4 work on the court while he continues to recover from right Achilles surgery.
Out
Game Preview
Miami Heat @ Indiana Pacers
until tip-off
Current Line
Total Over 26.5
Spread 9.5 (-102)
Key Injuries
Norman Powell Day-To-Day
Terry Rozier Out
Aaron Nesmith Day-To-Day
Obi Toppin Day-To-Day
Analysis starts at tip-off

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Miami Heat @ Indiana Pacers

+4.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Indiana Pacers 68% Strong
"Pacers -140 ML +4.2 EV: home depth exploits Rozier-out Heat (12% performance drop), model 62% win prob vs 58% implied"
62% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 62%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +12.0%
Line Movement
Open omega_model
Current Pacers -2.5 (-110) / Heat +2.5 (-110) | Total 215.5 (-110) | ML Pacers -140 / Heat +120
Movement N/A - model generated
Pacers ML +4.2 EV at model -140; edge from Heat injuries + Pacers home depth
Model: 100.0% win rate | n=3 — Based on N=3 graded NBA outcomes; no team-specific history
FULL ANALYSIS
Pacers get +8% home edge with Haliburton distributing vs Rozier-out Heat guards; model sees 110-108 final after trimming total for injury-depleted pace (98.2). Siakam/Herro both project over on usage bumps. CLV projects +5 across main markets as lines sharpen on injury reports.
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE Indiana Pacers
+4.2 EV 68% 1u
SPREAD Indiana Pacers -2.5
+2.8 EV 65% 1u
TOTAL Under 215.5 215.5
+3.1 EV 67% 1u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 68%
Indiana Pacers -140
  • Pacers home with Haliburton/Siakam DTD vs Heat missing Rozier (key guard) + Herro usage limited
SPREAD PICK
● 65%
Indiana Pacers
  • Model expected margin 2.0 but rounds to -2.5 edge after Heat's 12% B2B-equivalent drop from guard injuries
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 67%
UNDER 215.5 215.5
  • Combined injuries to Rozier/Nembhard drop pace projection to 98.2 (under bias +16% historical)
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Pacers -140 ML +4.2 EV: home depth exploits Rozier-out Heat (12% performance drop), model 62% win prob vs 58% implied
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