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MLB
San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres
Padres
Los Angeles Dodgers
Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +40.8% EV ALIGNED
55% Lean
55% Lean
SPREAD
San Diego Padres San Diego Padres 1.5
"Over 8.0: Bayesian model projects 65% over, +24.5% EV vs market — the best edge in a data-poor environment."
EV / $100
+2.9
Win Prob
65%
Edge
+15.2%
MONEYLINE San Diego Padres None
55%
TOTAL over 8.0
62%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 16.2% divergence on spread with strong signal. RLM detected on spread.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$1881000 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (76% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 817 trades Kalshi: 258 trades Largest: $152250
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +1.5
Total
22.5
Edge: +14.5
Win Prob
41.9%
ML
139 / -139

Player Props Engine

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San Diego Padres

Los Angeles Dodgers

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -260 / 210 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -250 / 219 -
Value Line - -245 / 190 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (175) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (-111) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.0 (-106)
De-Vigged Fair Value -105 / 105 -237 / 237 O/U 101 / -101
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

San Diego Padres

R
Randy Vasquez
(SP) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
F
Freddy Fermin
(C) day-to-day — Fermin is out of the lineup for Wednesday's game against the Cubs.
Day-To-Day
J
Jason Adam
(RP) 15-day IL — The Padres placed Adam on the 15-day injured list Thursday, retroactive to Tuesday, with a right shoulder strain.
15-Day-IL
D
David Morgan
(RP) 15-day IL — The Padres recalled Morgan from Triple-A El Paso on Friday.
15-Day-IL
L
Luis Campusano
(C) 10-day IL — Campusano (toe) will embark on a rehab assignment with Triple-A El Paso later this week, Annie Heilbrunn of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
10-Day-IL
N
Nick Pivetta
(SP) 60-day IL — Pivetta (forearm) threw a light bullpen session Saturday, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
M
Matt Waldron
(SP) 15-day IL — Waldron (forearm) struck out four and allowed two earned runs on two hits and four walks across 2.2 innings Thursday in a rehab start with Triple-A El Paso.
15-Day-IL
L
Lucas Giolito
(SP) 15-day IL — Giolito was placed on the 15-day injured list Tuesday, retroactive to Monday, with right elbow inflammation.
15-Day-IL
J
Joe Musgrove
(SP) 60-day IL — Musgrove (elbow) started playing catch in late May, per MLB.com.
60-Day-IL
R
Ramon Laureano
(LF) 60-day IL — Laureano underwent surgery Friday to repair his torn right labrum, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jeremiah Estrada
(RP) 15-day IL — Estrada (2-2) picked up the loss after giving up the eventual game-winning run in a 3-2 loss to Philadelphia on Tuesday.
15-Day-IL
Y
Yu Darvish
(SP) out — Darvish (elbow) revealed Tuesday in a social media post that he has resumed playing catch.
Out
B
Bryan Hoeing
(RP) 60-day IL — The Padres transferred Hoeing (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.
60-Day-IL

Los Angeles Dodgers

W
Will Smith
(C) 10-day IL — Manager Dave Roberts said Wednesday that Smith (neck) is expected to remain out until after the All-Star break, Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times reports.
10-Day-IL
T
Tyler Glasnow
(SP) 60-day IL — Glasnow (back) has been cleared to begin a throwing program, Jack Harris of the California Post reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Blake Treinen
(RP) 15-day IL — Treinen does not have any structural damage in his injured right elbow, per MLB.com.
15-Day-IL
B
Blake Snell
(SP) 60-day IL — Snell (elbow) threw a 15-pitch bullpen session Friday, and manager Dave Roberts said it went well, David Vassegh of AM 570 LA Sports reports.
60-Day-IL
L
Landon Knack
(SP) 60-day IL — Knack (chest) began a rehab assignment with Triple-A Oklahoma City on Thursday, yielding two runs on five hits and one walk over 1.1 innings.
60-Day-IL
E
Edwin Diaz
(RP) 60-day IL — Diaz (elbow) is throwing in the bullpen Friday at Dodger Stadium, reports Jack Harris of the California Post.
60-Day-IL
E
Enrique Hernandez
(1B) 10-day IL — Hernandez (oblique) has started some baseball activities but remains in the early stages of his rehab, per MLB.com.
10-Day-IL
E
Evan Phillips
(RP) 60-day IL — Phillips (elbow) began a rehab assignment with Triple-A Oklahoma City on Thursday, yielding one hit and one walk over two-thirds of a scoreless frame.
60-Day-IL
B
Bobby Miller
(SP) 60-day IL — Miller (shoulder/back) will resume throwing off the mound this week, Cody Snavely of DodgersBeat.com reports.
60-Day-IL
G
Gavin Stone
(SP) 60-day IL — Dodgers manager Dave Roberts revealed Tuesday that Stone has been unable to ramp up his throwing without feeling soreness in his surgically repaired right shoulder, Cody Snavely of DodgersBeat.com reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Brusdar Graterol
(RP) 60-day IL — Graterol (shoulder) underwent surgery recently for a back injury he suffered while on a rehab assignment, Jack Harris of the California Post reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Ben Casparius
(RP) 60-day IL — Casparius (shoulder) was moved to the 60-day injured list Monday.
60-Day-IL
J
Jake Cousins
(RP) 60-day IL — The Dodgers transferred Cousins (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (175)
Total Over 8.0
Key Injuries
Randy Vasquez Day-To-Day
Freddy Fermin Day-To-Day
Will Smith 10-Day-IL
Tyler Glasnow 60-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers

+2.9 EV
per $100 wagered
San Diego Padres 55% Lean
"Over 8.0: Bayesian model projects 65% over, +24.5% EV vs market — the best edge in a data-poor environment."
65% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 65%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +15.2%
Line Movement
Current Spread -1.5 (H), Total 8.0, ML H -252 / A +203
Movement No significant movement detected.
Significant positive EV on over 8.0 due to model projection of 65.2% over probability vs market-implied 50%.
FULL ANALYSIS
Despite heavy market and sharp support for Dodgers, the model sees value on the total over 8.0 with a +15.2pp edge. Starting pitcher uncertainty and degraded data temper confidence, but the EV is clear. Spread and moneyline edges are below floor thresholds, making the over the only actionable lean.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp edge on spread 16.2% toward home with RLM detected. Whale signals also heavy on home with $1.85M volume.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD San Diego Padres 1.5
+2.9 EV 55%
MONEYLINE San Diego Padres None
+3.6 EV 55%
TOTAL over 8.0
+24.5 EV 62% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 55%
San Diego Padres 203
  • Positive EV of 3.63% but below required 10% edge floor for MLB moneyline
SPREAD PICK
○ 55%
San Diego Padres 1.5
  • Bayesian posterior shows away cover at 53.9% vs market 50% for +3.9% edge, but degraded data and sharp money conflict
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 62%
OVER 8.0
  • Bayesian posterior 65.2% over vs market 50%, yielding +15.2pp edge and 24.5% EV per $100
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Padres +2.5 and under 22.5 present clear edges as the model fades public money on Dodgers.
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