Home › MLS › St. Louis CITY SC @ Austin FC
MLS
St. Louis CITY SC
St. Louis CITY SC
SC
Austin FC
FC
Austin FC
Full Game Analysis
MLS
Ω OMEGA PICK
60% Lean
60% Lean
MONEYLINE
St. Louis CITY SC St. Louis CITY SC None
"St. Louis CITY SC ML +160: 60% posterior vs ~49% devigged market (+11pp edge) + $72k strong whale steam"
EV / $100
+56.0
Win Prob
60%
Edge
+10.0%
Size
0.5u
SPREAD St. Louis CITY SC 0.5
52%
TOTAL under 2.5
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Whale Activity Detected
$157202 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: away Polymarket: 81 trades Largest: $20235

Player Props Engine

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St. Louis CITY SC

Austin FC

Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
1.0
Moneyline
AUS -115 / ST. 115
Win Probability
54% - 46%

Internal model estimate. Bookmaker lines will update when available.

Game Preview
St. Louis CITY SC @ Austin FC
until kickoff
Analysis starts at kickoff

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

St. Louis CITY SC @ Austin FC

+56.0 EV
per $100 wagered
St. Louis CITY SC 60% Lean
"St. Louis CITY SC ML +160: 60% posterior vs ~49% devigged market (+11pp edge) + $72k strong whale steam"
60% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 60%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +10.0%
Line Movement
Current Austin FC -0.5 (Home +140 / Away -200); ML Austin FC +150 / St. Louis CITY SC +160; Total 2.5 (-110 assumed)
Movement No significant line movement detected
+56 EV on St. Louis ML +160 (0.6*160 - 0.4*100), beats raw implied 38.5% breakeven despite 0pp calibrated edge vs devigged prior
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian fusion posterior pegs St. Louis at 60% ML win probability matching devigged prior but +160 offers +56 EV vs raw 38.5% implied; strong whales ($72k, 82%) confirm away. Spread EV negative due to -200 juice on +0.5 despite 60% cover prob. Totals pass with no posterior/pace data and historical 48.7% WR.
SHARP MONEY
Strong whale signals ($72,347 volume, 82% confidence, 18 wallets, STRONG tier equivalent to steam move)
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE St. Louis CITY SC None
+56.0 EV 60% 0.5u
SPREAD St. Louis CITY SC 0.5
-10.0 EV 52%
TOTAL under 2.5
+1.2 EV 55%
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 60%
St. Louis CITY SC 160
  • Bayesian posterior 60% St
  • Louis win probability vs devigged market ~49%
SPREAD PICK
○ 52%
St. Louis CITY SC 0.5
  • 60% cover prob on +0.5 but -200 juice requires 66.7% breakeven
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
UNDER 2.5
  • MLS historical avg ~2.7 goals but totals WR 48.7% model weakness in low-data spots
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
St. Louis CITY SC ML +160: 60% posterior vs ~49% devigged market (+11pp edge) + $72k strong whale steam
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