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NFL
Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia Eagles
Eagles
Washington Commanders
Commanders
Washington Commanders
Full Game Analysis
NFL
Ω DDN SI PICK +0.2% EV EARLY VALUE
60% Lean
60% Lean
MONEYLINE
Philadelphia Eagles Philadelphia Eagles None
"Eagles ML at +225 vs a model fair of -138 (OMEGA 58% WAS win prob vs 73.5% market implied) — ~+36.5 EV per $100 on a DraftKings overreach on a 1-4-1 home team."
EV / $100
+36.5
Win Prob
42%
Edge
+11.2%
Size
1u
SPREAD Philadelphia Eagles 6.0
62%
TOTAL over 40.5
58%
Full DDN SI Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 3.9% divergence on spread with strong signal. RLM detected on total.
Sharp: away Boost: +1
Whale Activity Detected
$222652 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: away Polymarket: 44 trades Kalshi: 24 trades Largest: $52446
DDN SI LINE DDN SI Independent Projection
Spread
-2.0
Edge: +4.0
Total
48.5
Edge: +8.0
Win Prob
58.0%
ML
-138 / 138

Player Props Engine

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Philadelphia Eagles

Washington Commanders

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -250 / 210 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -239 / 209 -
Value Line - -250 / 195 -
Sharp Action Best Line -6.0 (-110) - -
Market Consensus -6.0 (105) ↓ - -
Value Line -6.5 (-113) ↓ - -
Sharp Action Best Line - - Over 40.5 (-108)
Market Consensus - - Over 40.5 (-108)
Value Line - - Over 42.0 (-112)
De-Vigged Fair Value 110 / -110 -226 / 226 O/U -102 / 102
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Philadelphia Eagles

D
Dontayvion Wicks
(WR) out — inactive
Out
D
DeVonta Smith
(WR) out — inactive
Out
J
Jake Majors
(C) out — inactive
Out
J
Jonathan Jones
(CB) out — inactive
Out
J
Jihaad Campbell
(LB) out — inactive
Out
B
Britain Covey
(WR) out — inactive
Out
S
Saquon Barkley
(RB) active — The Eagles aren't expected to move Barkley ahead of the Nov. 10 trade deadline, Mike Garafolo of NFL Network reports.
Active
J
Jakorian Bennett
(CB) Injured Reserve — Bennett (knee) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Commanders.
Injured Reserve
E
Elijah Mitchell
(RB) active — The Eagles elevated Mitchell from the practice squad to the active roster Saturday.
Active
M
Michael Carter II
(CB) active — Carter (abdomen) does not have a game designation for Philadelphia's Week 8 matchup against the Commanders on Sunday.
Active
N
Nolan Smith Jr.
(LB) active — Smith (concussion) does not carry an injury designation into Sunday's game against the Commanders.
Active
M
Makai Lemon
(WR) active — Lemon will be the Eagles' top wide receiver for a second consecutive game Sunday at Washington due to the absences of both DeVonta Smith (hamstring) and Dontayvion Wicks (ankle).
Active
M
Moro Ojomo
(DT) active
Active
J
Jalyx Hunt
(LB) active
Active
J
Jonathan Greenard
(LB) active
Active
M
Marcus Epps
(S) active
Active
J
Jalen Carter
(DT) active
Active
S
Smael Mondon Jr.
(LB) active
Active
J
Jake Elliott
(PK) active — Elliott made all three of his PAT attempts and didn't attempt a field goal in Monday's 38-21 loss to the Cowboys.
Active
J
Jaydon Blue
(RB) active — The Eagles signed Blue from the practice squad to the active roster Wednesday.
Active
D
Dameon Pierce
(RB) Injured Reserve — The Eagles placed Pierce (undisclosed) on injured reserve Wednesday
Injured Reserve
C
Cooper DeJean
(CB) active — DeJean recorded seven tackles (three solo) during Monday's 38-21 loss versus the Cowboys.
Active
Z
Zack Baun
(LB) active — Baun recorded nine tackles (two solo) and a pass defensed during Monday's 38-21 loss versus the Cowboys.
Active
E
Elijah Moore
(WR) active — Moore caught both of his targets for 16 yards during Monday's 38-21 loss to the Cowboys.
Active
E
Eli Stowers
(TE) active — Stowers failed to haul in his lone target during Monday's 38-21 loss to Dallas.
Active

Washington Commanders

C
Charles Omenihu
(DE) active — Omenihu (groin/ankle) is active for Sunday night's contest against the Eagles.
Active
A
Athan Kaliakmanis
(QB) out — Kaliakmanis (coach's decision) is inactive but serving as the Commanders' emergency third quarterback Sunday night against the Eagles.
Out
J
John Bates
(TE) active — Bates (shoulder) is active for Sunday night's matchup with the Eagles.
Active
T
Treylon Burks
(WR) active — Burks (foot) is listed as active Sunday versus the Eagles.
Active
I
Isaac Yiadom
(CB) out — inactive
Out
T
Tanoa Togiai
(G) out — inactive
Out
F
Fabian Moreau
(CB) out — inactive
Out
D
Daron Payne
(DT) out — inactive
Out
J
Javon Kinlaw
(DT) out — inactive
Out
J
Jer'Zhan Newton
(DT) Injured Reserve — Newton (pectoral) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Eagles.
Injured Reserve
N
Nick Allegretti
(G) active
Active
T
Terry McLaurin
(WR) Injured Reserve — McLaurin (knee) underwent surgery Friday to repair the torn patellar tendon in his left knee, Nicki Jhabvala of The Athletic reports.
Injured Reserve
S
Stefon Diggs
(WR) active — Diggs (hand/hamstring) was a full practice participant Thursday.
Active
L
Laremy Tunsil
(OT) Injured Reserve — Tunsil (triceps) could potentially return late in the season, Nicki Jhabvala of The Athletic reports.
Injured Reserve
V
Van Jefferson
(WR) active — The Commanders signed Jefferson to the active roster Wednesday, Zach Selby of the team's official site reports.
Active
M
Marcus Mariota
(QB) active — Mariota (knee) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice.
Active
A
Antonio Williams
(WR) active — Coach Dan Quinn noted Monday that with Terry McLaurin (knee) out for the season, Stefon Diggs' workload isn't expected to change much, however others, notably Williams, should see added opportunities in McLaurin's looming absence, Nicki Jhabvala of The Athletic reports.
Active
J
Jaylin Lane
(WR) Injured Reserve — Lane underwent surgery Oct. 9 to repair his fractured and dislocated ankle, and he is expected to be cleared for activities before OTAs, Tashan Reed of The Washington Post reports.
Injured Reserve
S
Sonny Styles
(LB) active — Styles finished Monday's 23-17 loss to the 49ers with 13 tackles (seven solo) and one pass defense.
Active
D
Drew Stevens
(PK) active — Stevens made his only field-goal try and converted both of his extra-point attempts during Monday's 23-17 loss at San Francisco.
Active
A
Austin Ekeler
(RB) active — Ekeler logged a three-yard carry and caught both of his targets for four yards during the Commanders' 23-17 loss to the 49ers on Monday.
Active
D
Dyami Brown
(WR) active — Brown hauled in his only target for six yards during Monday's 23-17 loss versus San Francisco.
Active
J
Jeremy McNichols
(RB) active — McNichols accrued five rushes for 13 yards during Monday's 23-17 loss to the 49ers.
Active
T
T.J. Maguranyanga
(DE) active
Active
C
Chig Okonkwo
(TE) active — Okonkwo brought in all seven targets for 69 yards in the Commanders' 23-17 loss to the 49ers on Monday night.
Active
Game Preview
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders
until kickoff
Current Line
Spread -6.0 (-110)
Total Over 40.5
Key Injuries
Dontayvion Wicks Out
DeVonta Smith Out
Charles Omenihu Active
Athan Kaliakmanis Out
Analysis starts at kickoff

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Recorded picks and reasons

These are the saved selections and explanations from the public results record. The analysis below may have been refreshed later.

Spread: Philadelphia Eagles 6.0 (-108) PENDING · Recorded 2026-10-30T17:14:04.407830 UTC

OMEGA independent spread is -2.0 vs market -6.0 — a 4.0-point edge toward the road side, and +6 avoids the key-number risk of 3 and 7 while paying -108.

Player Prop: over (-110) PENDING · Recorded 2026-10-30T23:13:27.249875 UTC

Model projection, not a market line — unvalidated roster data; Commanders without Kinlaw weakens interior pressure, but with Smith/Wicks/Covey OUT the passing ceiling is capped, so this is only a Lean-tier projection.

Ω
DDN SI ANALYSIS

Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders

+36.5 EV
per $100 wagered
Philadelphia Eagles 60% Lean
"Eagles ML at +225 vs a model fair of -138 (OMEGA 58% WAS win prob vs 73.5% market implied) — ~+36.5 EV per $100 on a DraftKings overreach on a 1-4-1 home team."
42% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 42%
Book Implied 31%
Edge +11.2%
Line Movement
Current Spread: WAS -6.0 (-112 home / -108 away), Total 40.5, ML Home -278 / Away +225 (DraftKings)
Movement No movement data provided
OMEGA win prob for Washington (58%) converts to a fair -138 ML, yet the market offers Eagles at +225 (30.8% breakeven). Our 42% away-side probability against a 30.8% breakeven drives +36.5 EV per $100 — the largest quantified edge on this board, driven almost entirely by the market overrating a 1-4-1 home team.
FULL ANALYSIS
The 40.5 total is the loudest number on this board: OMEGA's Poisson projection says 48.5 and the decomposed-ratings model says 49.4, an 8-point gap on a market that has apparently priced two bad defenses out of scoring. Secondary edge: Philly's win prob per the fused posterior sits ~15 points above what -278 implies, making the +225 dog ML a fat-EV goalline lay even after acknowledging we have no movement or sharp-split data to confirm it. Keep sizing small — totals are our worst market and this slate is display-only.
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE Philadelphia Eagles None
+36.5 EV 60% 1u
SPREAD Philadelphia Eagles 6.0
+8.0 EV 62% 1u
TOTAL over 40.5
+6.0 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 60%
Philadelphia Eagles 225
  • Public Line prices Washington at -278 (73.5% implied) while OMEGA's fused scoring model+team strength posterior is 58% home — fair price near -138, making +225 a ~+36.5 EV per $100 goalline-lay price on a 1-4-1 team
SPREAD PICK
○ 62%
Philadelphia Eagles 6.0
  • OMEGA independent spread is -2.0 vs market -6.0 — a 4.0-point edge toward the road side, and +6 avoids the key-number risk of 3 and 7 while paying -108
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
OVER 40.5
  • OMEGA scoring model projection totals 48.5 expected points and the decomposed-ratings model says 49.4 — 8.0-8.9 points above a 40.5 market total that has not moved to punish either defense injury list (Payne/Moreau out for WAS, Campbell out for PHI suggest neutral-to-higher scoring)
About This Analysis

DDN SI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
OMEGA独立线48.5总分 vs 市场40.5是8分差距 — 超过40.5向好方向且同线 away +6.0 具备+7.4 EV — 但1pt级差距太大不可全信, 谨慎0.5-1u仓位.
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