Home › NHL › Philadelphia Flyers @ Pittsburgh Penguins
NHL
Philadelphia Flyers
Philadelphia Flyers
Flyers
Pittsburgh Penguins
Penguins
Pittsburgh Penguins
Full Game Analysis
NHL
Ω OMEGA PICK +30.4% EV
58% Lean
58% Lean
SPREAD
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins -1.5
"PIT -1.5 (-135): PHI -15.8% injury hit vs PIT -6.3% (net +9.5%), sharp 9.7% spread edge +2.1 EV"
EV / $100
+2.1
Win Prob
60%
Edge
+10.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Pittsburgh Penguins None
60%
TOTAL under 5.5
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 9.7% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +3
Whale Activity Detected
$313230 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong away consensus (81% of whale volume).
Whales: away Polymarket: 67 trades Kalshi: 157 trades Largest: $43919

Player Props Engine

Powered by OMEGA

Philadelphia Flyers

Pittsburgh Penguins

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -133 / 112 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -130 / 115 -
Value Line - -136 / 120 -
Sharp Action Best Line -2.5 (305) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (191) ↓ - -
Sharp Action Best Line - - Over 2.5 (145)
Market Consensus - - Over 6.0 (105)
De-Vigged Fair Value 211 / -211 -123 / 123 O/U 112 / -112
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Philadelphia Flyers

E
Emil Andrae
(D) day-to-day — day-to-day
Day-To-Day
N
Nikita Grebenkin
(RW) out — out
Out
R
Rodrigo Abols
(C) Injured Reserve — Abols' injury is a fractured right ankle, Kevin Kurz of The Athletic reports Wednesday.
Injured Reserve

Pittsburgh Penguins

P
Peyton Kettles
(D) out — out
Out
Game Preview
Philadelphia Flyers @ Pittsburgh Penguins
until puck drop
Current Line
Spread -2.5 (305)
Total Over 2.5
Key Injuries
Emil Andrae Day-To-Day
Nikita Grebenkin Out
Peyton Kettles Out
Analysis starts at puck drop

Get Daily Picks

AI picks delivered to your inbox every morning.

You're in!

Already subscribed!

Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Philadelphia Flyers @ Pittsburgh Penguins

+2.1 EV
per $100 wagered
Pittsburgh Penguins 58% Lean
"PIT -1.5 (-135): PHI -15.8% injury hit vs PIT -6.3% (net +9.5%), sharp 9.7% spread edge +2.1 EV"
60% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 60%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +10.0%
Line Movement
Current PIT -1.5 (-135) / PHI +1.5 (+114), ML PIT -135 / PHI +114, Total 5.5 (-110)
Movement No significant line movement detected
Injury advantage: Home +9.5% (PHI -15.8% vs PIT -6.3%)
Marginal +EV on PIT ML after injury adjustment; spread EV neutral due to puck line vig
FULL ANALYSIS
PHI injuries (-15.8%, critical outs like Grebenkin/Abols) create 9.5% net edge for PIT vs Bayesian 57.5% prior. Sharp money strong on PIT puck (9.7% edge) and over, +EV under fair value 52.9%, but whales extreme $313k on PHI countered by book efficiency. Degraded data caps at Lean tier post-calibration.
SHARP MONEY
Strong 9.7% sharp edge on PIT spread + 8.0% on over; overall sharp favors home side despite weak ML signal
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Pittsburgh Penguins -1.5
+2.1 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Pittsburgh Penguins None
+3.4 EV 60% 0.5u
TOTAL under 5.5
+1.8 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 60%
Pittsburgh Penguins -135
  • Injuries hit PHI harder (-15.8%) creating 9.5% net home edge over Bayesian prior
SPREAD PICK
○ 58%
Pittsburgh Penguins -1.5
  • Sharp 9.7% edge on PIT puck line + net injury advantage PHI critical outs
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
UNDER 5.5
  • +EV analysis fair under 52.9% vs -110 vig breakeven
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Penguins +1680 ML: Pinnacle 57% fair vs 5.6% implied (+879 EV), whales $35k strong + injury edge
Partner Spotlight

Want to reach bettors who use data?

partnerships@degendailynews.com

21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-522-4700

SIGNAL · LIVE