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MLB
St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals
Cardinals
Detroit Tigers
Tigers
Detroit Tigers
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +56.0% EV
74% High Edge
74% High Edge
SPREAD
Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers -143
"DET spread +55.4% EV at Bovada (+320 vs Pinnacle fair +170) on 14.7% sharp divergence—smash home spread"
EV / $100
+55.4
Win Prob
39%
Edge
-11.3%
Size
2.0u
MONEYLINE St. Louis Cardinals None
60%
TOTAL over 8.0
58%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 14.8% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +143.0
Total
24.0
Edge: +16.0
Win Prob
38.7%
ML
158 / -158

Player Props Engine

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St. Louis Cardinals

Detroit Tigers

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -139 / 116 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -131 / 121 -
Value Line - -150 / 118 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (320) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (159) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.0 (-104)
Fair Value Fair Value 169 / -169 -126 / 126 O/U 102 / -102
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

St. Louis Cardinals

M
Masyn Winn
(SS) day-to-day — Winn (hip) is absent from the lineup for Saturday's game in Detroit.
Day-To-Day
M
Matt Pushard
(RP) 15-day IL — Pushard (knee) will be shut down for 4-to-5 days before resuming a throwing program, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
15-Day-IL
H
Hunter Dobbins
(SP) 15-day IL — Dobbins (knee) will begin a rehab assignment Tuesday at Triple-A Memphis, Daniel Guerrero of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
15-Day-IL
I
Ixan Henderson
(SP) day-to-day — Henderson (elbow) is starting the season on the 60-day injured list at Triple-A Memphis.
Day-To-Day
L
Lars Nootbaar
(LF) 60-day IL — Cardinals president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom said Monday that Nootbaar (heels) will be evaluated this week for potential placement on the 60-day injured list, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
60-Day-IL
V
Victor Santos
(RP) day-to-day — Santos (elbow) has compiled a 3.97 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 26:7 K:BB across 34 innings over his first nine outings (seven starts) in the Dominican Winter League.
Day-To-Day
S
Sem Robberse
(SP) day-to-day — Robberse (elbow) signed a minor-league contract with the Cardinals on Monday, which includes an invitation to spring training, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
Day-To-Day
Z
Zack Thompson
(RP) day-to-day — The Cardinals reassigned Thompson (shoulder) to minor-league camp Monday.
Day-To-Day

Detroit Tigers

J
Justin Verlander
(SP) 15-day IL — The Tigers placed Verlander on the 15-day injured list Saturday with left hip inflammation, retroactive to Wednesday, Jason Beck of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
S
Scott Effross
(RP) day-to-day — Effross (oblique) will throw a bullpen session Friday, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.
Day-To-Day
T
Tyler Owens
(SP) day-to-day — Owens (hip) will begin a rehab assignment with Single-A Lakeland on Saturday, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.
Day-To-Day
T
Troy Watson
(SP) day-to-day — Watson is scheduled to begin a throwing program Monday as he works his way back from arthroscopic right elbow surgery, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
Day-To-Day
T
Trey Sweeney
(SS) 10-day IL — The Tigers placed Sweeney (shoulder) on the 10-day injured list Wednesday.
10-Day-IL
B
Bailey Horn
(RP) 15-day IL — The Tigers placed Horn (elbow) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
S
Sawyer Gipson-Long
(RP) 15-day IL — The Tigers placed Gipson-Long (oblique) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
B
Beau Brieske
(RP) 60-day IL — The Tigers placed Brieske (groin) on the 60-day injured list Monday.
60-Day-IL
J
Jackson Jobe
(SP) 60-day IL — Jobe (elbow) is scheduled to play catch out to 120 feet three times this week, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Troy Melton
(RP) 60-day IL — The Tigers announced Friday that Melton (elbow) has started his throwing program, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.
60-Day-IL
D
Dugan Darnell
(RP) day-to-day — The Tigers announced Sunday that Darnell (hip) has been playing catch five times a week and is also taking part in a running progression, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Josue Briceno
(C) out — Briceno said Friday that he expects to be sidelined a few months after having surgery Wednesday to repair a tendon in his right wrist, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
Out
R
Reese Olson
(SP) 60-day IL — The Tigers placed Olson on the 60-day injured list Tuesday following a right shoulder labral repair Feb. 2 that will result in him missing the 2026 season.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
St. Louis Cardinals @ Detroit Tigers
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (320)
Total Over 8.0
Key Injuries
Masyn Winn Day-To-Day
Matt Pushard 15-Day-IL
Justin Verlander 15-Day-IL
Scott Effross Day-To-Day
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

St. Louis Cardinals @ Detroit Tigers

+55.4 EV
per $100 wagered
Detroit Tigers 74% High Edge
"DET spread +55.4% EV at Bovada (+320 vs Pinnacle fair +170) on 14.7% sharp divergence—smash home spread"
39% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 39%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -11.3%
Line Movement
Current DET -143 / STL +119 | Total 8.0
Movement No movement data
Negative EV on home ML per omega_model (38.7% vs 58.8% implied); massive +55% EV on DET spread at Bovada per Pinnacle fair value (37% fair vs +320 odds)
Model: 52.0% win rate | n=248 — MLB 129-119 (52%) N=248; vs DET 7-10, vs STL 10-8; recent H2H mixed (3L/2W)
FULL ANALYSIS
Sharp money crushing DET spread value (+55% EV Bovada +320 vs Pinnacle 37% fair) with 14.7% divergence despite omega pick'em spread—ELO sees DET +5.2 edge ignored by Poisson. Recent H2H 3/5 STL ML model hits but spread mixed; over hit 4/5 as totals profitable lean tier. Multiple DT DTD injuries but Skubal (0.69 ERA) dominates props.
SHARP MONEY
14.7% sharp edge on spread to DET (Pinnacle fair 37% home vs retail 23.8%); strong signal despite weak ML sharp (away). Bovada DET spread +320 = +55% EV.
Recommended Sizing
2.0u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Detroit Tigers -143
+55.4 EV 74% 2.0u
MONEYLINE St. Louis Cardinals None
+1.8 EV 60% 0.5u
TOTAL over 8.0
+2.1 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 64%
St. Louis Cardinals 113
  • Our 64.2% prob exceeds +113 breakeven 47% by 17%; tier calibration shows ML profitable
SPREAD PICK
● 62%
St. Louis Cardinals 0.0
  • Omega spread 0.0 vs market DET -136 shows 136pt discrepancy favoring STL
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
OVER 8.0
  • Omega total 24.0 vs market 8.0 indicates massive overvalue (Poisson 12-12 expected)
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
STL +113 ML +5.8EV (64% prob vs 48% breakeven); omega 0.0 spread/24.0 total crushes DET -136 market
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