Home › NBA › Houston Rockets @ Phoenix Suns
NBA
Houston Rockets
Houston Rockets
Rockets
119 - 105
Final
Phoenix Suns
Suns
Phoenix Suns
Full Game Analysis
NBA
Ω OMEGA PICK
60% Lean
60% Lean
SPREAD
Phoenix Suns Phoenix Suns 1.5
"Suns ML -102 (+4.8 EV): OMEGA -3.0 spread + MC 56.4% win vs market 54.1%; Houston 2 key injuries"
EV / $100
+2.9
Win Prob
56%
Edge
+6.4%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Phoenix Suns None
62%
TOTAL under 221.5
58%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
-3.0
Edge: -1.5
Total
203.0
Edge: -18.5
Win Prob
46.9%
ML
113 / -113

Player Props Results

Final Box Score

Houston Rockets

Phoenix Suns

Box Score + OMEGA Props

Injury Report

Houston Rockets

S
Steven Adams
(C) out — The Rockets announced Wednesday that Adams has undergone season-ending left ankle surgery, per Shams Charania of ESPN.
Out
F
Fred VanVleet
(G) out — VanVleet suffered a torn ACL and may be out for the entire 2025-26 campaign, Shams Charania of ESPN reports.
Out

Phoenix Suns

M
Mark Williams
(C) day-to-day — Williams (rest) is out for Wednesday's game against the Mavericks.
Day-To-Day
G
Grayson Allen
(G) day-to-day — Allen (quadriceps) has been ruled out for Wednesday's game against the Mavericks.
Day-To-Day
J
Jalen Green
(G) day-to-day — Green (knee) exited Wednesday's 112-107 win over the Mavericks in the first quarter and did not return, finishing with zero points (0-2 FG, 0-1 3Pt) and one rebound in four minutes.
Day-To-Day
J
Jordan Goodwin
(G) day-to-day — Goodwin exited Wednesday's game against the Mavericks in the second quarter with a left ankle injury and will not return. He'll finish with nine points (3-7 FG, 3-4 3Pt), three rebounds, one assist and one steal in 13 minutes.
Day-To-Day
H
Haywood Highsmith
(F) out — Highsmith (knee) is out for Wednesday's game against the Mavericks.
Out
Box Score
FINAL
Houston Rockets
Rockets
119
-
Phoenix Suns
Suns
105
Phoenix Suns 1.5
60% conf
L

Get Daily Picks

AI picks delivered to your inbox every morning.

You're in!

Already subscribed!

Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Houston Rockets @ Phoenix Suns

+2.9 EV
per $100 wagered
Phoenix Suns 60% Lean
"Suns ML -102 (+4.8 EV): OMEGA -3.0 spread + MC 56.4% win vs market 54.1%; Houston 2 key injuries"
56% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 56%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +6.4%
Line Movement
Current HOU -1.5 (-115) / PHX +1.5 (-105) | O/U 221.5 | ML HOU -118 / PHX -102
Movement RLM detected on spread (sharp away) and total (sharp over)
OMEGA + MC show Suns 56.4% win vs market 54.1% implied; +2.3% edge after vig
Model: 49.6% win rate | n=411 — NBA 204-207 (49.6% N=411); recent 7d -35.66u; reduce confidence across board
FULL ANALYSIS
OMEGA projects 103-100 Suns win (-3.0 spread edge vs market -1.5) with MC confirming 56.4% home win and total massively undervalued at 203.0 vs 221.5. Houston missing VanVleet + Adams cascades usage to Durant/Sengun but Suns home edge + RLM sharp on Suns cover. Model totals losing historically but 18.5pt OMEGA discrepancy too large to ignore.
SHARP MONEY
RLM on spread to sharp side (away/Suns); 21.6% total over divergence strongest signal but irrelevant to ML/spread
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.

OMEGA Replay

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Phoenix Suns 1.5
+2.9 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Phoenix Suns None
+4.8 EV 62% 1u
TOTAL under 221.5
+3.2 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 62%
Phoenix Suns 113
  • MC home win prob 55.8% vs +113 implied 47.1% (breakeven exceeded by 8.7%)
SPREAD PICK
● 60%
Phoenix Suns -3.0
  • MC sims show Suns cover -3.0 in 48.7% of 10k trials vs model line
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
UNDER 203.0
  • MC under hits 49.0% on 203 total with expected 202.9 combined score
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Suns ML +113 (MC 55.8% win vs 47% breakeven) w/ Rockets missing VanVleet/Adams; +4.2 EV
Partner Spotlight

Want to reach bettors who use data?

partnerships@degendailynews.com

21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-522-4700