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MLB
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers
St. Louis Cardinals
Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +50.6% EV
55% Lean
55% Lean
SPREAD
Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers -1.5
"Model 22.5 total vs market 8.0 = +24.5 EV over 8; sharps +50.6 EV Brewers RL despite whales"
EV / $100
+5.1
Win Prob
65%
Edge
+15.2%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Milwaukee Brewers None
53%
TOTAL over 8.0
63%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 18.2% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: away Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$177009 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (77% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 125 trades Largest: $14611
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +118.0
Total
22.5
Edge: +14.5
Win Prob
34.8%
ML
187 / -187

Player Props Engine

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Milwaukee Brewers

St. Louis Cardinals

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -106 / -114 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -101 / -109 -
Value Line - -105 / -120 -
Sharp Action Best Line 3.0 (-440) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-172) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.0 (-114)
De-Vigged Fair Value -162 / 162 104 / -104 O/U -107 / 107
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Milwaukee Brewers

A
Angel Zerpa
(RP) 15-day IL — Manager Pat Murphy said Sunday that Zerpa (forearm) is deciding whether or not to undergo Tommy John surgery, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
15-Day-IL
B
Brice Turang
(2B) day-to-day — Turang went 2-for-5 with four RBI in Tuesday's 12-4 win over the Tigers.
Day-To-Day
A
Andrew Vaughn
(1B) 10-day IL — Vaughn (hand) remains on track to return from the 10-day injured list Monday, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jackson Chourio
(CF) 10-day IL — Chourio (hand) had X-rays come back negative after fouling a pitch off his foot during his rehab appearance Saturday with Triple-A Nashville, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jacob Misiorowski
(SP) day-to-day — Misiorowski participated in running drills Saturday and told reporters afterward that his right hamstring felt "normal and fine," Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
Day-To-Day
B
Brandon Woodruff
(SP) 15-day IL — Manager Pat Murphy said Thursday that Woodruff (arm) will receive some time off before making his next start, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
15-Day-IL
Q
Quinn Priester
(SP) 15-day IL — Priester (wrist) is scheduled to throw about four innings and 60 pitches in the next start of his rehab assignment Friday, Jack Stern of BrewerFanatic.com reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Christian Yelich
(LF) 10-day IL — Yelich (groin) is ramping up his hitting and running work and still has an estimated return of mid-to-late May, Sophia Minnaert of Brewers.tv reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jared Koenig
(RP) 15-day IL — Koenig (elbow) is slated to resume a throwing program Tuesday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
G
Gerson Garabito
(RP) day-to-day — Garabito will be out for four months after undergoing surgery to address a broken bone in his foot, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
Day-To-Day
R
Rob Zastryzny
(RP) 60-day IL — Zastryzny (shoulder) was diagnosed with an intercostal strain and will be sidelined until at least late April, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
60-Day-IL
A
Akil Baddoo
(LF) 60-day IL — The Brewers placed Baddoo (quadriceps) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
J.B. Bukauskas
(RP) day-to-day — Bukauskas will undergo surgery on his injured right lat and be sidelined for 9-to-10 months, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
Day-To-Day

St. Louis Cardinals

M
Matt Pushard
(RP) 15-day IL — Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol said Saturday that Pushard (knee) will need "several more" rehab appearances at Triple-A Memphis before being activated from the 10-day injured list, Daniel Guerrero of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
15-Day-IL
L
Lars Nootbaar
(LF) 60-day IL — Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol said Saturday that Nootbaar (heels) is on track to begin a rehab assignment as soon as the week of May 10, Daniel Guerrero of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
60-Day-IL
P
Packy Naughton
(RP) day-to-day — Imaging revealed damage to the UCL in Naughton's left elbow Saturday, Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat reports.
Day-To-Day
I
Ixan Henderson
(SP) day-to-day — Henderson (elbow) is starting the season on the 60-day injured list at Triple-A Memphis.
Day-To-Day
V
Victor Santos
(RP) day-to-day — Santos (elbow) has compiled a 3.97 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 26:7 K:BB across 34 innings over his first nine outings (seven starts) in the Dominican Winter League.
Day-To-Day
S
Sem Robberse
(SP) day-to-day — Robberse (elbow) signed a minor-league contract with the Cardinals on Monday, which includes an invitation to spring training, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
Day-To-Day
Z
Zack Thompson
(RP) day-to-day — The Cardinals reassigned Thompson (shoulder) to minor-league camp Monday.
Day-To-Day
Game Preview
Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 3.0 (-440)
Total Over 8.0
Key Injuries
Angel Zerpa 15-Day-IL
Brice Turang Day-To-Day
Matt Pushard 15-Day-IL
Lars Nootbaar 60-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals

+5.1 EV
per $100 wagered
Milwaukee Brewers 55% Lean
"Model 22.5 total vs market 8.0 = +24.5 EV over 8; sharps +50.6 EV Brewers RL despite whales"
65% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 65%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +15.2%
Line Movement
Current MIL -1.5 -118 / STL +1.5 -102, O/U 8.0 -110
Movement No significant movement detected
+24.5 EV on over 8.0 from 65.2% posterior vs 52.4% breakeven; MC projects 19.8 total
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega/MC project 19.8-22.5 runs vs market 8.0 total for +15.2pp over edge (65.2% posterior). Sharps show 18.2% spread edge on MIL -1.5 despite extreme whale volume ($177k) on STL. Equal -9.7% injuries, no pitchers/weather limits conf; Bayesian ML away 53.2% but neg EV at -118.
SHARP MONEY
Strong 18.2% sharp edge on away spread + moderate 1.1% ML edge; +50.6% EV away spread vs Pinnacle fair value
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Milwaukee Brewers -1.5
+5.1 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Milwaukee Brewers None
-1.7 EV 53%
TOTAL over 8.0
+24.5 EV 63% 1.0u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 53%
Milwaukee Brewers -118
  • Posterior 53.2% vs devigged market 49.5% edge +3.7pp but raw implied 54.1% yields negative EV
SPREAD PICK
○ 55%
Milwaukee Brewers -1.5
  • Sharp divergence 18.2% favoring away run line + MC away margin -0.2pts (47.4% cover at even)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 63%
OVER 8.0
  • Over posterior 65.2% (+15.2pp edge) vs market; omega/MC project 19.8-22.5 total vs 8.0
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Brewers ML +4pp Bayesian edge vs pred mkt; MC under 22.5 68.6% (10.1-10.3 proj total)
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