Bundesliga
Eintracht Frankfurt
Frankfurt
2
-
3
Final
Borussia Dortmund
Dortmund
Player Props Results
Final Box ScoreEintracht Frankfurt
Borussia Dortmund
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OMEGA ANALYSIS
Eintracht Frankfurt @ Borussia Dortmund
+-1.5 EV
per $100 wagered
Borussia Dortmund
58%
Lean
"Dortmund ML (-140) model posterior 58.3% = fair value, lean home (EV 0, vs Dortmund 3-0)"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
58%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
+8.3%
Line Movement
Current
DOR -0.5 (-150) / FRA +0.5 (+105) | ML DOR -140 / FRA +295 | O/U 3.5
Movement
No significant line movement detected
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian fusion posterior pegs Dortmund win at 58.3%, exact match to devigged -140 fair value with 0pp edge. No injuries, rest, or travel flags; stable line at Signal Iduna Park. Poor data (29% signals) and historical lean overconfidence cap at LEAN tier.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
○
58%
Borussia Dortmund -140
- Posterior exactly matches devigged market prior at 58.3% home win prob
SPREAD PICK
○
58%
Borussia Dortmund -0.5
- Bayesian posterior home win prob 58.3% on -0.5 equivalent despite -150 juice
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
55%
UNDER 3.5
- Bundesliga avg ~2.9 goals/game, line 3.5 offers value (totals historically losing 47.4% lean tier)
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Dortmund -1.5 +115 (6.8 EV) exploits ML juice; 67.7% posterior but spread value vs Frankfurt mid-table
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