MLS
New York City FC
FC
Charlotte FC
FC
Whale Activity Detected
$7574990 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home
Polymarket: 2622 trades
Kalshi: 149 trades
Largest: $319165
Ω OMEGA LINE
OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Total
7.5
Win Prob
41.4%
ML
141 / -141
Player Props Engine
Powered by OMEGANew York City FC
Charlotte FC
ELO Model Lines
MODELSpread
-0.8
Moneyline
CHA 112
/
NEW -112
Win Probability
47%
-
53%
ELO model estimate — not sportsbook lines. Market odds shown above when available from consensus sources.
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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS
New York City FC @ Charlotte FC
+4.8 EV
per $100 wagered
Charlotte FC
59%
Lean
"Charlotte PK +0.0 (MC 58.8% cover) backed by $7.6M extreme whale home steam, under 7.5 63% MC edge"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
51%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
+1.0%
Line Movement
Current
omega_model Spread: Charlotte FC +0.0 (-110) / New York City FC -0.0 (-110) | ML: Charlotte FC +111 / New York City FC -111 | Total: o7.5 / u7.5 (-110)
Movement
N/A
Marginal +EV on home ML after whale adjustment (+111 odds, breakeven 47.6%, our 51% exceeds by 3.4%); spread PK +EV from model cover rate.
FULL ANALYSIS
Tight even matchup per OMEGA PK spread and 47.4% home posterior, but MC sims give Charlotte 58.8% PK cover (43.6% W +15% draw) and 63% model total under. Extreme $7.57M whale steam (102 wallets, 61% home ML) provides key Tier 2 confirmation vs Bayesian away lean. Cool 52F/low wind supports under; degraded data caps at Lean tier.
SHARP MONEY
Extreme whale volume $7.57M from 102 profitable wallets (61% on home ML, institutional tier equivalent to steam move).
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
○
55%
Charlotte FC 110
- Extreme institutional whale action ($7.57M volume, 61% confidence) overrides Bayesian away edge
SPREAD PICK
○
59%
Charlotte FC 0.0
- MC 10k sims project 58.8% home PK cover (43.6% win + 15.2% draw) vs 52.4% breakeven
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
60%
UNDER 7.5
- MC sims 63.1% under 7.5 (HIGH edge conf, projected 3.4-3.3); cool 52F weather adds under bias
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Charlotte +141 ML: 47.4% posterior vs 41.5% model implied (+5.9% edge) + $7M whale steam
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