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MLB
Washington Nationals
Washington Nationals
Nationals
Boston Red Sox
Sox
Boston Red Sox
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +41.1% EV ALIGNED
65% Sharp Lean
65% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox -1.5
"Over 9.5 is the model's best edge: +15.2pp Bayesian posterior gap, Poisson sees inflated scoring at Fenway, and sharp home money correlates with runs. 1.5u on over."
EV / $100
+7.8
Win Prob
53%
Edge
-7.2%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE Washington Nationals None
58%
TOTAL over 9.5
68%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 13.4% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$1038639 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home Polymarket: 440 trades Kalshi: 36 trades Largest: $54000
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +1.5
Total
22.5
Edge: +13.0
Win Prob
35.4%
ML
183 / -183

Player Props Engine

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Washington Nationals

Boston Red Sox

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -148 / 124 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -142 / 128 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (250) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (138) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 9.5 (-114)
De-Vigged Fair Value 148 / -148 -135 / 135 O/U -107 / 107
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Washington Nationals

M
Mitchell Parker
(RP) 15-day IL — Parker has been diagnosed with a Grade 3 UCL sprain in his left elbow and is likely to undergo Tommy John surgery, Mark Zuckerman of NatsJournal.com reports.
15-Day-IL
R
Richard Lovelady
(RP) 15-day IL — The Nationals placed Lovelady on the 15-day injured list Monday with a left triceps strain.
15-Day-IL
T
Travis Sykora
(SP) day-to-day — Sykora (elbow) began a throwing progression at the Nationals' complex in Florida earlier this month and is on schedule in his recovery from the UCL reconstruction surgery he underwent last August, MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
T
Trevor Williams
(SP) 60-day IL — Williams (elbow) struck out a batter and allowed four runs (two earned) on four hits and no walks while recording two outs in a rehab start Sunday with Single-A Fredericksburg.
60-Day-IL
J
Jake Irvin
(SP) 15-day IL — Irvin (shoulder) will throw a bullpen session Tuesday, Kyle Williams of TheBanner.com reports.
15-Day-IL
D
DJ Herz
(SP) 60-day IL — Herz (elbow) was diagnosed Monday with a left flexor strain, Kyle Williams of TheBanner.com reports.
60-Day-IL
M
Max Kranick
(RP) 60-day IL — Kranick (elbow) began a rehab assignment with Single-A Fredericksburg on Sunday, striking out two over 1.2 perfect innings.
60-Day-IL
J
Jarlin Susana
(RP) day-to-day — Susana threw from a mound this week for the first time since undergoing lat surgery last September, Jessica Camerato of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
K
Ken Waldichuk
(RP) 60-day IL — Waldichuk (elbow) underwent Tommy John surgery and an internal brace procedure April 21 and is hopeful to return to game action at some point early in the 2027 season, Mark Zuckerman of MASNSports.com reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Tyler Stuart
(SP) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
J
Josiah Gray
(SP) 60-day IL — Gray (elbow) has resumed a throwing program, Mark Zuckerman of NatsJournal.com reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Tyler Baum
(DH) day-to-day — Baum has not pitched this year due an undisclosed injury.
Day-To-Day

Boston Red Sox

C
Connelly Early
(SP) day-to-day — Early left Tuesday's contest versus Washington in the fifth inning due to left elbow discomfort, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports.
Day-To-Day
N
Nick Sogard
(3B) 10-day IL — Sogard (oblique) will begin a rehab assignment Thursday, Gabrielle Starr of the Boston Herald reports.
10-Day-IL
P
Patrick Sandoval
(SP) 60-day IL — Sandoval (biceps) struck out three and allowed one earned run on three hits and one walk across four innings Sunday in his rehab start with Triple-A Worcester.
60-Day-IL
R
Roman Anthony
(LF) 60-day IL — The Red Sox transferred Anthony (finger/wrist) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Sunday.
60-Day-IL
J
Jovani Moran
(RP) 15-day IL — Moran (elbow) will make at least one more rehab appearance before being activated, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
I
Isiah Kiner-Falefa
(2B) 10-day IL — Kiner-Falefa underwent a CT scan on his left forearm Thursday which revealed a stress reaction, MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
M
Marcelo Mayer
(2B) 10-day IL — The Red Sox placed Mayer on the 10-day injured list Friday with a stress reaction in his left forearm, Mac Cerullo of the Boston Herald reports.
10-Day-IL
G
Garrett Crochet
(SP) 60-day IL — Crochet (shoulder/lat) has not yet been cleared to resume a throwing program following a scheduled re-evaluation Monday, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Trevor Story
(SS) 60-day IL — Story (abdomen) has begun jogging and swinging off a tee, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
K
Kutter Crawford
(SP) 60-day IL — Interim manager Chad Tracy said Tuesday that Crawford (elbow) is dealing with moderate tightness in his right forearm, Christopher Smith of MassLive.com reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Triston Casas
(1B) 60-day IL — Red Sox interim manager Chad Tracy told reporters Wednesday that Casas (abdomen/knee) is close to being cleared to swing a bat, Christopher Smith of MassLive.com reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Tanner Houck
(SP) 60-day IL — Houck (elbow) has been making throws out to 105 feet three days per week, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
H
Hobie Harris
(RP) day-to-day — Harris was optioned to Triple-A Rochester on Saturday, Jesse Dougherty of The Washington Post reports.
Day-To-Day
B
Brendan Rodgers
(2B) out — Rodgers (shoulder) re-signed Friday with the Red Sox on a two-year, minor-league contract, Chris Hatfield of SoxProspects.com reports.
Out
J
Johan Oviedo
(SP) 60-day IL — Oviedo (elbow) will be reevaluated by Dr. Keith Meister in two weeks to determine his progress, Marcos Grunfeld of ElEmergente.com reports.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Washington Nationals @ Boston Red Sox
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (250)
Total Over 9.5
Key Injuries
Mitchell Parker 15-Day-IL
Richard Lovelady 15-Day-IL
Connelly Early Day-To-Day
Nick Sogard 10-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Washington Nationals @ Boston Red Sox

+7.8 EV
per $100 wagered
Boston Red Sox 65% Sharp Lean
"Over 9.5 is the model's best edge: +15.2pp Bayesian posterior gap, Poisson sees inflated scoring at Fenway, and sharp home money correlates with runs. 1.5u on over."
53% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 53%
Book Implied 60%
Edge -7.2%
Line Movement
Open DraftKings: Home -149 / Away +124, Total 9.5
Current Home -149 / Away +124, Total 9.5
Movement No significant movement detected
Moneyline at -149 offers negative EV given our 52.6% win probability on home. The calibrated edge (-7.3pp) signals fading the favorite in this spot.
FULL ANALYSIS
The total over 9.5 is the sharpest play here. Bayesian fusion gives over 65.2% vs market 50% — a +15.2pp edge, the largest discrepancy in the card. Omega independent total of 22.5 is clearly a Poisson artifact, but the posterior still favors over decisively. Sharp money is on the home side (-13.4% spread divergence, $1M+ whale volume), which also correlates with higher scoring if Boston covers. Moneyline fade of home at -149 is a contrarian lean at 0.5u, but the data quality warning and missing pitcher info reduce conviction. Spread on Boston -1.5 is backed by institutional signals, but the Omega line of 0.0 means we are chasing a market that has already moved. The over is the highest-confidence pick in the card despite degraded data.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp money (Pinnacle de-vigged fair value) shows 13.4% edge favoring home side on the spread. Whale consensus is 54% home with $1M+ volume (extreme tier). Cross-market signal confirms ML/spread both favor home. This is a legit sharp lean on the home side.
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Boston Red Sox -1.5
+7.8 EV 65% 1u
MONEYLINE Washington Nationals None
+6.3 EV 58% 0.5u
TOTAL over 9.5
+12.1 EV 68% 1.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 58%
Washington Nationals 124
  • Bayesian posterior has away at 47.4% vs market 40.2% — a +7.3pp edge
  • Model sees more away value than the market prices
SPREAD PICK
● 65%
Boston Red Sox -1.5
  • Sharp money divergence is 13.4% on home spread with strong signal; whales on home at extreme volume tier
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 68%
OVER 9.5
  • Bayesian posterior for over is 65.2% vs market 50.0% — +15.2pp edge
  • Poisson-based model sees inflated scoring potential
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Quantitative fusion shows +15.2pp edge on over 8.5 — Monte Carlo projects 9.9 avg runs — take the over before the market wakes up
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