Home › Mixed Martial Arts › Gilbert Burns @ Mike Malott
Mixed Martial Arts
Gilbert Burns
Gilbert Burns
Burns
Mike Malott
Malott
Mike Malott
Full Game Analysis
Mixed Martial Arts
Ω OMEGA PICK
58% Lean
58% Lean
SPREAD
Gilbert Burns Gilbert Burns -0.5
"Burns BJJ/grappling edge vs Malott reach, 58% win prob +10.7 EV at -110 model line"
EV / $100
+10.7
Win Prob
58%
Edge
+8.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Gilbert Burns None
58%
TOTAL under 4.5
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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Gilbert Burns

Mike Malott

Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
—
Moneyline
MIK -100 / GIL -100
Win Probability
50% - 50%

Internal model estimate. Bookmaker lines will update when available.

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Gilbert Burns @ Mike Malott
until tip-off
Analysis starts at tip-off

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Gilbert Burns @ Mike Malott

+10.7 EV
per $100 wagered
Gilbert Burns 58% Lean Raw
"Burns BJJ/grappling edge vs Malott reach, 58% win prob +10.7 EV at -110 model line"
58% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 58%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +8.0%
Line Movement
Current omega_model: ML Gilbert Burns -110 / Mike Malott -110 | Spread Burns -0.5 -110 | Total 4.5 -110 o/u
Movement No movement (no market lines)
+10.7 EV on Burns ML at -110 (breakeven 52.4%, our 58% exceeds by 5.6%)
FULL ANALYSIS
Burns' elite BJJ (8 subs) and experience vs top-10 give 58% win prob vs model even line, edge from grappling over Malott's reach (+4"). Under 4.5 rounds off 65% welterweight finish rate. Data dearth (16% quality) caps at Lean; MMA edge threshold met (7%+).
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Gilbert Burns -0.5
+10.7 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Gilbert Burns None
+10.7 EV 58% 0.5u
TOTAL under 4.5
+5.0 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 58%
Gilbert Burns -110
  • Burns superior grappling matchup edge (8 career subs) over Malott's submission style
SPREAD PICK
○ 58%
Gilbert Burns -0.5
  • Burns elite BJJ and 22-7 UFC record vs Malott's 10-2-1 with limited elite experience
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
UNDER 4.5
  • Welterweight finish rate 65% inside distance in 5-rounders projects 3.5 expected rounds
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Burns experience + grappling edge yields 62% win prob vs model -130 (5.5% edge, +9.7 EV ML)
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