English Premier League
Aston Villa
Villa
Burnley
Burnley
Whale Activity Detected
$906 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Strong home consensus (100% of whale volume).
Whales: home
Polymarket: 1 trades
Largest: $906
Player Props Engine
Powered by OMEGAAston Villa
Burnley
Betting Odds Comparison
| Source | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Consensus | - | 475 / -168 ↑ | - |
| Market Consensus | 1.0 (-111) | - | - |
| Market Consensus | - | - | Over 2.5 (-118) |
| De-Vigged Fair Value | -107 / 107 | 251 / -251 | O/U -112 / 112 |
Line Movement
Open
Current
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OMEGA ANALYSIS
Aston Villa @ Burnley
+12.4 EV
per $100 wagered
Aston Villa
70%
Strong
"AVL 81% posterior ML at -170 (+28.6 EV) beats vigged 63% & Pinnacle fair 71%; Kalshi 82.5% confirms"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
81%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
+31.0%
Line Movement
Current
Spread: Aston Villa -0.5 (-185) / Burnley +0.5 (+130); ML: Burnley +425 / Aston Villa -170; Total: 2.5 (-110)
Movement
No significant line movement detected.
+EV on Aston Villa ML at -170 vs vigged implied 63%; Market Consensus fair 71.1% still values retail price.
FULL ANALYSIS
Posterior 81% Aston Villa win crushes -170 vigged implied 63% for +28.6 EV per $100, value vs Pinnacle 71% fair. Kalshi 82.5% confirms, minor $906 whale on Burnley ignored (low tier). 2.5 total leans under on EPL norms, no situational edges.
SHARP MONEY
Cross-market confirms away on ML/spread; Kalshi 82.5% away > book; minor whale on home ($906, low volume) slight contra.
Recommended Sizing
1.5u
Positive EV with multiple confirming factors. Standard sizing.
MONEYLINE PICK
●
79%
Aston Villa -170
- Bayesian posterior 81% away win matches de-vig market prior but crushes vigged 63% implied; breakeven 63% exceeded by 18%
SPREAD PICK
●
70%
Aston Villa -0.5
- Posterior implies ~75% cover prob for -0.5 (win prob 81% adj for draws); +EV vs Pinnacle spread fair 47.3% away cover
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
57%
UNDER 2.5
- EPL avg ~2.7 goals but 2.5 total low; Pinnacle fair neutral 50.2% under, historical totals losing (47.4% Lean tier)
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Aston Villa ML -170: 81% posterior vs 63% implied (+18pp raw edge), Pinnacle/Kalshi confirm +19 EV
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