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Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians
Guardians
Los Angeles Dodgers
Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
66% Sharp Lean
66% Sharp Lean
MONEYLINE
Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians
"CLE +163 ML +3.2 EV (model 62% Dodgers vs 66.5% implied) + under 8.5 (8.1 proj) on dual depleted staffs"
EV / $100
+3.2
Win Prob
38%
Edge
-12.0%
Size
1u
SPREAD Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5
63%
TOTAL Under 8.5 8.5
68%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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Cleveland Guardians

Los Angeles Dodgers

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Pinnacle - -188 / 168 ↑ -
Pinnacle -1.5 (112) - -
Pinnacle - - Over 8.5 (-112)
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Cleveland Guardians

T
Tanner Bibee
(SP) day-to-day — Bibee (shoulder) said that he felt good after completing a 26-pitch bullpen session Saturday, but the Guardians have yet to decide if he'll be ready to go for his next turn through the rotation Tuesday versus the Dodgers in Los Angeles, Paul Hoynes of The Cleveland Plain Dealer reports.
Day-To-Day
H
Hunter Gaddis
(RP) 15-day IL — Gaddis (forearm) allowed one walk while striking out one batter in a scoreless inning during his rehab appearance with Triple-A Columbus on Saturday, Tim Stebbins of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
G
George Valera
(RF) 10-day IL — The Guardians placed Valera (calf) on the 10-day injured list Wednesday.
10-Day-IL
A
Andrew Walters
(RP) 15-day IL — The Guardians placed Walters (lat) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
A
Austin Hedges
(C) day-to-day — Hedges is considered day-to-day after an X-ray on his right hand came back negative, Tim Stebbins of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
C
Carlos Hernandez
(RP) out — Hernandez is making progress but is still in the midst of a rehab program after suffering fractures to his left arm and right leg during a Jan. 11 car accident in Venezuela, SI.com reports.
Out

Los Angeles Dodgers

E
Enrique Hernandez
(1B) 60-day IL — Hernandez (elbow) took on-field batting practice at Dodger Stadium on Saturday, Jack Harris of the California Post reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Tommy Edman
(2B) 10-day IL — Edman (ankle) took on-field batting practice Saturday and is progressing well, Jack Harris of the California Post reports.
10-Day-IL
B
Brock Stewart
(RP) 15-day IL — Stewart (shoulder) will begin throwing live batting practice Friday, Sonja Chen of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Jake Cousins
(RP) 15-day IL — The Dodgers signed Cousins (elbow) to a one-year contract Tuesday.
15-Day-IL
E
Evan Phillips
(RP) 60-day IL — Phillips (elbow) threw a bullpen session to a squatting catcher March 17, per MLB.com.
60-Day-IL
B
Blake Snell
(SP) 15-day IL — The Dodgers placed Snell (shoulder) on the 15-day injured list Monday.
15-Day-IL
B
Brusdar Graterol
(RP) 15-day IL — Graterol (shoulder) was spotted playing catch out to about 90 feet Monday, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
B
Bobby Miller
(SP) 60-day IL — The Dodgers placed Miller (shoulder) on the 60-day injured list Monday.
60-Day-IL
G
Gavin Stone
(SP) 15-day IL — The Dodgers placed Stone (shoulder) on the 15-day injured list Monday.
15-Day-IL
L
Landon Knack
(SP) 15-day IL — The Dodgers placed Knack on the 15-day injured list Monday due to an intercostal strain, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
Game Preview
Cleveland Guardians @ Los Angeles Dodgers
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -1.5 (112)
Total Over 8.5
Key Injuries
Tanner Bibee Day-To-Day
Hunter Gaddis 15-Day-IL
Enrique Hernandez 60-Day-IL
Tommy Edman 10-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Cleveland Guardians @ Los Angeles Dodgers

+3.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Cleveland Guardians 66% Sharp Lean
"CLE +163 ML +3.2 EV (model 62% Dodgers vs 66.5% implied) + under 8.5 (8.1 proj) on dual depleted staffs"
38% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 38%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -12.0%
Line Movement
Current LAD -199 / CLE +163 | Total 8.5
Movement No movement data available
CLE ML +163 offers +3.2 EV despite model seeing Dodgers at only 62% (4pt edge vs implied 66.5%)
Model: 53.2% win rate | n=47 — DDN 4-0 vs Dodgers boosts CLE ML confidence; N=47 medium sample
FULL ANALYSIS
Dodgers -199 ML overjuiced vs model 62% true prob (CLE +3.2 EV at +163) with DDN 4-0 vs LAD. Under 8.5 projects +4.8 EV (Poisson 8.1 total) as both bullpens shredded—CLE Bibee DTD, LAD 4 arms IL. DeLauter/Smith leader props pop with injury usage bumps.
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE Cleveland Guardians
+3.2 EV 66% 1u
SPREAD Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5
+2.1 EV 63% 0.5u
TOTAL Under 8.5 8.5
+4.8 EV 68% 1u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 66%
Cleveland Guardians +163
  • Model sees Dodgers win prob at 62% vs market 66.5% implied; Guardians pitching injuries offset by LAD bullpen on IL (Graterol/Stewart out)
SPREAD PICK
● 63%
Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5
  • Dodgers home dominance vs Guardians road struggles; model projects LAD 5.2-3.8 final (covers -1.5 at 54%)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 68%
UNDER 8.5 8.5
  • Model Poisson projects 8.1 total runs; both teams missing key arms (CLE Bibee DTD, LAD Stone/Knack IL) caps early scoring
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
CLE +163 ML +3.2 EV (model 62% Dodgers vs 66.5% implied) + under 8.5 (8.1 proj) on dual depleted staffs
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