Home › MLB › Athletics @ New York Yankees
MLB
Athletics
Athletics
Athletics
New York Yankees
Yankees
New York Yankees
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
55% Lean
55% Lean
SPREAD
Athletics Athletics 0.0
"Athletics +155 ML (46.5% MC win prob vs 39% breakeven): Yankees rotation gutted (Cole/Rodon IL), model 7% edge"
EV / $100
+0.8
Win Prob
46%
Edge
-3.5%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Athletics None
57%
TOTAL under 24.0
54%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Total
24.0
Win Prob
39.3%
ML
155 / -155

Player Props Engine

Powered by OMEGA

Athletics

New York Yankees

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action - -218 / 178 ↑ -
Sharp Action -3.0 (205) - -
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Athletics

No injuries reported

New York Yankees

A
Anthony Volpe
(SS) 10-day IL — Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Wednesday that Volpe (shoulder) will "potentially" begin a rehab assignment next week, Erik Boland of Newsday reports.
10-Day-IL
C
Carlos Rodon
(SP) 15-day IL — Rodon (elbow/hamstring) experienced "some soreness" following his workout Saturday, but manager Aaron Boone said that the soreness is "to be expected," Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
G
Gerrit Cole
(SP) 15-day IL — Cole (elbow) tossed one simulated inning of live batting practice Wednesday, per MLB.com.
15-Day-IL
R
Rafael Montero
(RP) out — Montero continues to have visa issues and hasn't yet arrived at Yankees camp, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
Out
T
Travis MacGregor
(SP) day-to-day — MacGregor signed a minor-league contract with the Angels on Monday.
Day-To-Day
C
Clarke Schmidt
(SP) 60-day IL — Schmidt (elbow) is tentatively slated to begin throwing bullpens before the end of March and could face hitters in April or May, per MLB.com.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Athletics @ New York Yankees
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (205)
Key Injuries
Anthony Volpe 10-Day-IL
Carlos Rodon 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

Get Daily Picks

AI picks delivered to your inbox every morning.

You're in!

Already subscribed!

Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Athletics @ New York Yankees

+0.8 EV
per $100 wagered
Athletics 55% Lean
"Athletics +155 ML (46.5% MC win prob vs 39% breakeven): Yankees rotation gutted (Cole/Rodon IL), model 7% edge"
46% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 46%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -3.5%
Line Movement
Current omega_model: Yankees -155 ML / Athletics +155 ML | Spread Yankees -0.5 (-110) | Total 24.0 (-110)
Movement N/A (model-generated lines)
Model sees dead even matchup (46.5% Athletics win prob vs -155 implies 60.8% Yankees); no EV on either ML. MC sims confirm 46.1-46.5% split.
Model: 53.3% win rate | n=336 — MLB 53.3% (N=336); lean ML profitable but overconfident; reduce all conf by 5; cap props at 60.
FULL ANALYSIS
Dead even matchup per MC (46.5% Athletics cover +0, 47.7% under 24 hits) despite ELO 5.8pt Yankees edge—Poisson neutralizes at 12-12 expected. Yankees missing Cole/Rodon/Volpe hurts rotation/depth vs Athletics model-favored (10-8 record). Data quality poor (42%), no sharp signals; lean Athletics ML/spread at low conf given profitable ML tier but overconfident calibration.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Athletics 0.0
+0.8 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Athletics None
+1.2 EV 57% 0.5u
TOTAL under 24.0
+0.4 EV 54%
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 58%
Athletics 205
  • Market -240 (70.6% breakeven) vs omega_model +155 (46.3% win prob from MC); heavy juice kills ROI
SPREAD PICK
● 65%
New York Yankees -2.2
  • Sharp 17.3% spread divergence + RLM with Bovada +180 vs Pinnacle fair -107 (51.8% home cover)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
OVER 8.0
  • Omega total 24.0 vs market 8.0 (MC total mean 24.1); model sees massive scoring projection
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Yankees spread +17.3% sharp edge + RLM vs -2.2 despite omega even spread; +45% EV Bovada
Partner Spotlight

Want to reach bettors who use data?

partnerships@degendailynews.com

21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-522-4700