Home › Mixed Martial Arts › Tim Elliott @ Steve Erceg
Mixed Martial Arts
Tim Elliott
Tim Elliott
Elliott
Steve Erceg
Erceg
Steve Erceg
Full Game Analysis
Mixed Martial Arts
Ω OMEGA PICK
55% Lean
55% Lean
SPREAD
Steve Erceg Steve Erceg 0.0
"Erceg ML -110 lean off $3.6K whale volume at 50/50 model posterior (+1.2 EV, 53% prob)"
EV / $100
+1.2
Win Prob
53%
Edge
+3.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Steve Erceg None
55%
TOTAL under 2.5
50%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Whale Activity Detected
$3597 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (100% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 1 trades Largest: $3597

Player Props Engine

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Tim Elliott

Steve Erceg

Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
—
Moneyline
STE -100 / TIM -100
Win Probability
50% - 50%

Internal model estimate. Bookmaker lines will update when available.

Game Preview
Tim Elliott @ Steve Erceg
until tip-off
Analysis starts at tip-off

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Tim Elliott @ Steve Erceg

+1.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Steve Erceg 55% Lean
"Erceg ML -110 lean off $3.6K whale volume at 50/50 model posterior (+1.2 EV, 53% prob)"
53% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 53%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +3.0%
Line Movement
Current omega_model: ML Steve Erceg -110 / Tim Elliott -110 | Spread Even | Total 2.5
Movement No movement (pre-market)
Marginal +EV on home ML at model -110 after minor whale adjustment
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian fusion dead even at 50/50 but $3.6K minor whale volume (100% home) tilts model to 53% Erceg win prob for +1.2 EV at -110. No injuries/situational edges; MMA style favors slight striker lean (Erceg reach/TDD). Poor data (24% signals) caps at LEAN tier post -7pt adjustment.
SHARP MONEY
Minor whale volume ($3,597 from 1 wallet at 100% home) provides weak confirming signal
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Steve Erceg 0.0
+1.2 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Steve Erceg None
+1.2 EV 55% 0.5u
TOTAL under 2.5
-0.5 EV 50%
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 55%
Steve Erceg -110
  • Slight 53% win prob exceeds -110 breakeven (52.4%) by 0.6pp via whale tilt
SPREAD PICK
○ 55%
Steve Erceg 0.0
  • Bayesian posterior 50% nudged to 53% home by minor whale signal on Erceg
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 50%
UNDER 2.5
  • Model projects early finish in flyweight striking/grappling clash
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Erceg ML +4.6 EV (55% model vs 52% line) on reach/TDD style edge + minor whale
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