Home › MLB › Baltimore Orioles @ Chicago White Sox
MLB
Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore Orioles
Orioles
4 - 2
Final
Chicago White Sox
Sox
Chicago White Sox
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
58% Lean
58% Lean
SPREAD
Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox None
"White Sox +124 ML (+3.1 EV): Omega 0.0 spread vs -150 market juice, MC 46.9% BAL cover in toss-up"
EV / $100
+1.2
Win Prob
47%
Edge
-3.1%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Chicago White Sox None
60%
TOTAL under 6.5
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +150.0
Total
24.0
Edge: +17.5
Win Prob
34.2%
ML
193 / -193

Player Props Results

Final Box Score

Baltimore Orioles

Chicago White Sox

Box Score + OMEGA Props

Injury Report

Baltimore Orioles

Z
Zach Eflin
(SP) 60-day IL — Eflin underwent Tommy John surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Andy Kostka of TheBaltimoreBanner.com reports.
60-Day-IL
M
Maverick Handley
(C) out — Handley was removed in the bottom of the fifth inning of Triple-A Norfolk's 6-2 loss to Nashville on Sunday after being hit in the left ankle by a pitch, Matt Weyrich of The Baltimore Sun reports.
Out
J
Jordan Westburg
(3B) 60-day IL — Westburg (elbow) will begin a throwing progression this week, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
D
Dietrich Enns
(RP) 15-day IL — The Orioles placed Enns on the 15-day injured list Monday with a left foot infection.
15-Day-IL
Y
Yaramil Hiraldo
(RP) 15-day IL — Baltimore placed Hiraldo on the 15-day injured list Sunday due to right shoulder inflammation, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Jackson Holliday
(2B) 10-day IL — Holliday (hand) has gone 5-for-18 (.278) with two doubles, three RBI, one run scored and through five minor-league rehab appearances with Triple-A Norfolk.
10-Day-IL
A
Andrew Kittredge
(RP) 15-day IL — Kittredge (shoulder) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Norfolk on Wednesday, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
R
Richard Guasch
(SP) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
L
Luis Vazquez
(SS) day-to-day — Orioles manager Craig Albernaz said Monday that Vazquez has been diagnosed with a broken right thumb, Andy Kostka of TheBaltimoreBanner.com reports.
Day-To-Day
H
Hans Crouse
(RP) day-to-day — Crouse (lat) struck out two and allowed two earned runs on three hits over an inning of relief Saturday in the Orioles' 8-6 win over the Pirates in his Grapefruit League debut.
Day-To-Day
K
Keagan Gillies
(P) day-to-day — Gillies will be sidelined for at least six weeks with a quad injury, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
Day-To-Day
K
Keegan Akin
(RP) 10-day IL — Orioles manager Craig Albernaz said Sunday that Akin (adductor) is scheduled to undergo an MRI on Monday, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
10-Day-IL
H
Heston Kjerstad
(LF) 10-day IL — The Orioles placed Kjerstad on the 10-day injured list Wednesday due to a right hamstring strain.
10-Day-IL
F
Felix Bautista
(RP) 60-day IL — Bautista (shoulder) threw a baseball Tuesday for the first time since undergoing surgery last August, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
60-Day-IL
P
Payton Eeles
(2B) day-to-day — Eeles left Sunday's spring training game against the Tigers due to left shoulder discomfort, Matt Weyrich of The Baltimore Sun reports.
Day-To-Day
C
Colin Selby
(RP) 60-day IL — The Orioles placed Selby on the 60-day injured list Saturday with right shoulder inflammation, Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com reports.
60-Day-IL

Chicago White Sox

B
Brooks Baldwin
(LF) 60-day IL — Baldwin underwent season-ending internal brace surgery April 1 to repair a right UCL tear, Brooke Fletcher of the Chicago Sports Network reports.
60-Day-IL
M
Mason Adams
(RP) day-to-day — The White Sox announced that Adams underwent successful Tommy John surgery Wednesday, Scott Merkin of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
M
Mike Vasil
(RP) 60-day IL — The White Sox transferred Vasil (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
A
Austin Hays
(LF) 10-day IL — Hays is expected to require a trip to the 10-day injured list after being diagnosed with a right hamstring strain, James Fegan of SoxMachine.com reports.
10-Day-IL
E
Everson Pereira
(CF) 10-day IL — The White Sox placed Pereira (ankle) on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to April 2, on Sunday.
10-Day-IL
K
Kyle Teel
(C) 10-day IL — Teel (hamstring) will begin hitting off a tee either April 7 or 8, MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
K
Ky Bush
(SP) 60-day IL — The White Sox placed Bush (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Monday.
60-Day-IL
P
Prelander Berroa
(RP) 15-day IL — The White Sox placed Berroa (elbow) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
D
Drew Thorpe
(SP) 15-day IL — The White Sox placed Thorpe (elbow) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
T
Tim Elko
(1B) out — Elko (knee) agreed to a minor-league contract with the White Sox on Sunday, Jack Ankony of SI.com reports.
Out
Box Score
FINAL
Baltimore Orioles
Orioles
4
-
Chicago White Sox
Sox
2
Chicago White Sox None
58% conf
L

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Baltimore Orioles @ Chicago White Sox

+1.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Chicago White Sox 58% Lean
"White Sox +124 ML (+3.1 EV): Omega 0.0 spread vs -150 market juice, MC 46.9% BAL cover in toss-up"
47% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 47%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -3.1%
Line Movement
Current BAL -150 / CHW +124 / Total 6.5
Movement No movement data
No edge on Baltimore ML at -150 (breakeven 60%, our prob 46.9%); White Sox +124 offers value but model sees toss-up
Model: 53.4% win rate | n=322 — N=322 MLB (53.4%); vs CHW 11-12, vs BAL 16-10; recent H2H BAL wins
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega spread dead even at 0.0 but market juiced to BAL -150 (60% implied vs our 46.9% MC); White Sox 3-1 home deserve better than +124 with Davis Martin 2.45 ERA anchoring. MC 45.4% home win in 10k sims shows value on dog ML despite BAL sweep yesterday. Low 6.5 total playable under but tier data shows totals struggling higher confidence levels.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.

OMEGA Replay

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Chicago White Sox None
+1.2 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Chicago White Sox None
+3.1 EV 60% 0.5u
TOTAL under 6.5
+0.8 EV 55%
MONEYLINE PICK
● 60%
Chicago White Sox 118
  • Model win prob 45.6% vs 45.9% breakeven at +118 offers +3.8% EV
SPREAD PICK
○ 58%
Chicago White Sox 0.0
  • Monte Carlo shows 46.4% home cover probability vs 50% breakeven at PK
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
UNDER 24.0
  • Monte Carlo under 47.0% vs 52.4% breakeven in model total
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
White Sox +118 ML +3.8 EV as MC 46% win prob crushes market's 40% implied
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