Home › NHL › Minnesota Wild @ Washington Capitals
NHL
Minnesota Wild
Minnesota Wild
Wild
5 - 1
Final
Washington Capitals
Capitals
Washington Capitals
Full Game Analysis
NHL
Ω DDN SI PICK ALIGNED
55% Lean
55% Lean
SPREAD
Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild -1.5
EV / $100
+0.4
Win Prob
52%
Edge
-1.3%
MONEYLINE Minnesota Wild None
50%
TOTAL under 6.5
54%
Full DDN SI Breakdown
DDN SI LINE DDN SI Independent Projection
Spread
0.5
Edge: -1.0
Total
6.0
Edge: -0.5
Win Prob
40.1%
ML
150 / -150

Player Props Results

Final Box Score

Minnesota Wild

Washington Capitals

Box Score + DDN SI Props

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 102 / -122 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 105 / -116 -
Value Line - 540 / -910 -
Sharp Action Best Line 1.5 (-250) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-253) ↓ - -
Value Line 1.5 (-148) ↓ - -
Sharp Action Best Line - - Over 6.0 (-120)
Market Consensus - - Over 6.0 (-113)
Value Line - - Over 4.5 (106)
De-Vigged Fair Value -238 / 238 110 / -110 O/U -106 / 106
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Minnesota Wild

J
Jared Spurgeon
(D) Injured Reserve — ir
Injured Reserve
B
Brock Faber
(D) Injured Reserve — Faber (skull) has cleared his return to play protocol and could resume skating within a few days, per Michael Russo of The Athletic.
Injured Reserve
F
Filip Gustavsson
(G) Injured Reserve — Head coach John Hynes said Sunday that Gustavsson (hip) is slated to miss at least another month, Dylan Loucks of The Hockey News reports.
Injured Reserve
M
Marcus Foligno
(LW) Injured Reserve — ir
Injured Reserve
N
Nick Foligno
(LW) Injured Reserve — ir
Injured Reserve

Washington Capitals

V
Vincent Desharnais
(D) Injured Reserve — ir
Injured Reserve
R
Rasmus Sandin
(D) Injured Reserve — Sandin (knee) was placed on long-term injured reserve Monday.
Injured Reserve
P
Patrick Thomas
(C) Injured Reserve — ir-nr
Injured Reserve
Box Score
FINAL
Minnesota Wild
Wild
5
-
Washington Capitals
Capitals
1
Minnesota Wild -1.5
55% conf
W

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Recorded picks and reasons

These are the saved selections and explanations from the public results record. The analysis below may have been refreshed later.

Total: under 6.5 (-134) WIN · Recorded 2026-11-01T01:08:43.841468 UTC

scoring model/Dixon-Coles project 5.9 and OMEGA line vs the 6.5 hang, but at -134 the under needs 57.3% and our posterior is only 54.6% — a market-weakest-category lean, never a bet.

Spread: Minnesota Wild -1.5 (+220) WIN · Recorded 2026-11-01T02:34:51.610163 UTC

Market Consensus fair value rates the home -1.5 cover at 71.3% vs the market's 70.3%, and the away +1.5 at +220 sits right at the equity line — the only NHL spread cell (CONFIRMED, 2.0% edge floor) slightly above fair.

Player Prop: over (-110) WIN · Recorded 2026-11-01T13:03:37.202124 UTC

Team leader with 14 goals; Wild missing center depth (both Folignos IR) should concentrate usage. Unvalidated roster caps confidence below 60 per prop lines block.

Ω
DDN SI ANALYSIS

Minnesota Wild @ Washington Capitals

+0.4 EV
per $100 wagered
Minnesota Wild 55% Lean
DDN SI sees no actionable edge on this game. Pass-positioned Wild +1.5 at +220 — the only NHL CONFIRMED cell near fair, while the -270 home ML and 6.5 under at -134 both ship negative EV with the model at 51.5% and NHL paused at -13.9% ROI.
52% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 52%
Book Implied 53%
Edge -1.3%
Line Movement
Open Home -1.5 (-270) / Away +1.5 (+220)
Current Home -1.5 (-270) / Away +1.5 (+220), total 6.5
Movement No significant line movement detected
Moneyline at -112 requires 52.8% breakeven; our posterior is 48.5% for the away side — negative EV. No market on this game clears the EV filter; all three picks ship at PASS unit sizing with sub-60 confidence per the NHL paused calibration.
FULL ANALYSIS
This is a pass-the-card spot and we're saying so. Models rate it 2.8-3.1 for WSH, market hangs -1.5 at -270, and the Bayesian posterior lands at 51.5% vs a 52.8% breakeven — the -270/-112 home pricing is exactly where NHL (ROI -13.9%, CLV 25%) loses money. The lone actionable nugget is the +220 on the Wild +1.5 sitting at the Pinnacle fair boundary, and even that is LEAN-tier with Gustavsson's crease replacement unverified. No props, no unit positions, revisit when a real line flip or goalie confirmation lands.

DDN SI Replay

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Minnesota Wild -1.5
+0.4 EV 55%
MONEYLINE Minnesota Wild None
-3.8 EV 50%
TOTAL under 6.5
-2.1 EV 54%
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 50%
Minnesota Wild -112
  • Whale consensus (86% one-sided, $46K STRONG tier) backs the Wild and sharp ML divergence mildly favors away, but our posterior 48.5% vs 52.8% breakeven makes this a stated negative-EV pass, not a recommendation
SPREAD PICK
○ 55%
Minnesota Wild -1.5
  • Market Consensus fair value rates the home -1.5 cover at 71.3% vs the market's 70.3%, and the away +1.5 at +220 sits right at the equity line — the only NHL spread cell (CONFIRMED, 2.0% edge floor) slightly above fair
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 54%
UNDER 6.5
  • scoring model/Dixon-Coles project 5.9 and OMEGA line vs the 6.5 hang, but at -134 the under needs 57.3% and our posterior is only 54.6% — a market-weakest-category lean, never a bet
About This Analysis

DDN SI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
$46K of whale money at 86% backs the Wild, but with no market odds, conflicting injury models and NHL on pause, this is a printed PASS at 54%.
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