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Florida Panthers
Florida Panthers
Panthers
Pittsburgh Penguins
Penguins
Pittsburgh Penguins
Full Game Analysis
NHL
Ω OMEGA PICK
58% Lean
58% Lean
SPREAD
Florida Panthers Florida Panthers 1.5
"FLA +180 ML (+8.6 EV): PIT -218 overjuiced despite injuries; DDN 9-5 vs Penguins, model 62% PIT win prob"
EV / $100
+2.1
Win Prob
62%
Edge
+12.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Florida Panthers None
64%
TOTAL under 6.5
54%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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Florida Panthers

Pittsburgh Penguins

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Market Consensus - -208 / 181 ↑ -
Market Consensus -1.5 (117) - -
Market Consensus - - Over 6.5 (-108)
Fair Value PIN DE-VIG 125 / -125 -190 / 190 O/U -101 / 101
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Florida Panthers

D
Dmitry Kulikov
(D) day-to-day — day-to-day
Day-To-Day
C
Cole Schwindt
(RW) Injured Reserve — Schwindt (lower body) is expected to return to the lineup Saturday in Pittsburgh, per Jameson Olive of the Panthers' official site.
Injured Reserve
A
Aaron Ekblad
(D) out — Ekblad suffered a broken finger Tuesday versus Ottawa and could be gone for the remainder of the season, Jameson Olive of the Panthers' official site reports Thursday.
Out
J
Jonah Gadjovich
(LW) Injured Reserve — Gadjovich (upper body) is not expected to suit up again this season, per Jameson Olive of the Panthers' official site on Tuesday.
Injured Reserve
S
Sam Reinhart
(C) out — Reinhart (foot) is expected to miss the remainder of the 2025-26 season, according to Jameson Olive of the Panthers' official site on Tuesday.
Out
E
Evan Rodrigues
(C) out — Rodrigues will undergo surgery for his broken finger, officially ending his 2025-26 campaign, George Richards of Florida Hockey Now reports.
Out
A
Aleksander Barkov
(C) Injured Reserve — As expected, Barkov (knee) won't return before the end of the 2025-26 season, per George Richards of Florida Hockey Now on Monday.
Injured Reserve
A
Anton Lundell
(C) out — Head coach Paul Maurice said Wednesday that Lundell (ribs) is expected to miss approximately 2-6 weeks, George Richards of Florida Hockey Now reports.
Out
N
Niko Mikkola
(D) Injured Reserve — ir
Injured Reserve
U
Uvis Balinskis
(D) out — Balinskis (lower body) has a fracture and is slated to miss 4-6 weeks, Jameson Olive of the Panthers' official site reports Monday.
Out
B
Brad Marchand
(LW) Injured Reserve — Marchand landed on injured reserve Tuesday, per the NHL media site.
Injured Reserve

Pittsburgh Penguins

C
Caleb Jones
(D) out — Jones had right shoulder surgery and will be out 4-6 months, the Penguins announced Friday.
Out
B
Blake Lizotte
(C) out — Lizotte (upper body) will be reevaluated in four weeks.
Out
F
Filip Hallander
(C) Injured Reserve — Hallander (leg) was recalled from his conditioning stint with AHL Wilkes-Barre/Scranton on Friday, Seth Rorabaugh of Tribune-Review Sports reports.
Injured Reserve
P
Peyton Kettles
(D) out — out
Out
Game Preview
Florida Panthers @ Pittsburgh Penguins
until puck drop
Current Line
Spread -1.5 (117)
Total Over 6.5
Key Injuries
Dmitry Kulikov Day-To-Day
Cole Schwindt Injured Reserve
Caleb Jones Out
Blake Lizotte Out
Analysis starts at puck drop

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Florida Panthers @ Pittsburgh Penguins

+2.1 EV
per $100 wagered
Florida Panthers 58% Lean
"FLA +180 ML (+8.6 EV): PIT -218 overjuiced despite injuries; DDN 9-5 vs Penguins, model 62% PIT win prob"
62% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 62%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +12.0%
Line Movement
Current PIT -218 ML / PIT -218 spread (odd format) / O/U 6.5
Movement No movement data
PIT ML breakeven 68.6% but our model sees only 62% true prob after injuries; negative EV on favorite, positive EV on FLA +180 underdog
Model: 42.3% win rate | n=215 — Based on N=215 graded NHL outcomes; reduce 3-5 pts for lean/sharp/strong tiers
FULL ANALYSIS
PIT -218 ML priced for 68.6% win but model sees 62% true prob after FLA loses Ekblad/Reinhart (0.75 GF60 drop) while PIT misses 4 bodies incl Lizotte. FLA +180 dog offers 8.6 EV as NHL pups cover 52% in multi-injury spots (N=48). Under 6.5 projects 5.8 goals but totals tanking calibration across tiers.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Florida Panthers 1.5
+2.1 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Florida Panthers None
+8.6 EV 64% 1u
TOTAL under 6.5
+1.2 EV 54%
MONEYLINE PICK
● 64%
Florida Panthers -224
  • Omega ML -224 for Panthers aligns with ELO edge (1550.6 > 1534.9); model moneylines profitable in strong tier (57.6%)
SPREAD PICK
○ 55%
Pittsburgh Penguins 0.0
  • Omega spread at 0.0 with Penguins home ice despite injuries; model calibration shows spreads profitable in lean tier (72.7%)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
UNDER 19.0
  • Omega total 19.0 reflects Poisson 9.6-9.6 expected; heavy injuries reduce scoring (Reinhart out 61 pts)
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Panthers ML -224 model edge (ELO 1550>1534) despite injuries both ways; Penguins home dog +2.1 EV in profitable ML tier
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