Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox

MLB

Detroit Tigers

Tigers

1 - 2

LIVE

Chicago White Sox

Sox

Full Game Analysis

MLB

Ω OMEGA PICK +50.0% EV

73% High Edge

MONEYLINE

Chicago White Sox None

"White Sox ML at +100: Bayesian edge +8.9pp, sharp money confirms, home/away split (18-11 vs 8-22) creates +17.8 EV"

EV / $100

+17.8

Win Prob

59%

Edge

+8.9%

Size

2.0u

SPREAD Chicago White Sox 0.0

70%

TOTAL over 7.5

60%

Full OMEGA Breakdown

Sharp Money Signal

Sharp money favors away side. 21.3% divergence on spread with strong signal. RLM detected on moneyline.

Sharp: away Boost: +4

Whale Activity Detected

$1636632 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (84% of whale volume).

Whales: home Polymarket: 583 trades Kalshi: 58 trades Largest: $160919

Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection

Spread

0.0

Edge: +121.0

Total

22.5

Edge: +15.0

Win Prob

46.7%

114 / -114

Player Props Engine

Detroit Tigers

Chicago White Sox

Live Stats

Betting Odds Comparison

Source	Spread	Moneyline	Total
Sharp Action Best Line	-	-110 / -110 ↑	-
Market Consensus	-	113 / -125	-
Value Line	-	-240 / 165	-
Sharp Action Best Line	3.0 (-430)	-	-
Market Consensus	1.5 (-149) ↓	-	-
Market Consensus	-	-	Over 8.0 (-110)
De-Vigged Fair Value	-141 / 141	119 / -119	O/U -103 / 103

Line Movement

Open Current

Injury Report

Detroit Tigers

Brant Hurter

(RP) 60-day IL — The Tigers placed Hurter on the 15-day injured list Sunday due to lumbar spine inflammation.

60-Day-IL

Casey Mize

(SP) 15-day IL — Mize (groin) played catch Thursday and is still waiting on the results of his MRI, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.

15-Day-IL

Kenley Jansen

(RP) 15-day IL — Jansen is awaiting results of an MRI on his right groin, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.

15-Day-IL

Tarik Skubal

(SP) 15-day IL — Skubal (elbow) will throw another simulated game Monday at Tropicana Field, Evan Woodbery of MLive.com reports.

15-Day-IL

Gleyber Torres

(2B) 10-day IL — Torres (oblique) will travel to Triple-A Toledo on Friday to begin a rehab assignment, Evan Woodbery of MLive.com reports.

10-Day-IL

Kerry Carpenter

(RF) 10-day IL — Carpenter (shoulder) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Toledo on Friday, Evan Woodbery of MLive.com reports.

10-Day-IL

Justin Verlander

(SP) 60-day IL — Verlander (hip) is slated to throw around 4-to-5 simulated innings or 65-to-70 pitches Wednesday in a live batting practice session, Evan Woodbery of MLive.com reports.

60-Day-IL

Ty Madden

(SP) 15-day IL — Madden (forearm) covered 4.1 innings and allowed one earned run on four hits and three walks while striking out three batters Monday in a rehab start with Triple-A Toledo.

15-Day-IL

Bailey Horn

(RP) 60-day IL — Horn (elbow) began a throwing progression May 14, MLB.com reports.

60-Day-IL

Javier Baez

(SS) 10-day IL — Tigers manager A.J. Hinch said Tuesday that Baez is scheduled to meet with a specialist in the near future for further evaluation on his sprained right ankle, which hasn't healed as quickly as the team hoped, Jason Beck of MLB.com reports.

10-Day-IL

Burch Smith

(RP) 15-day IL — Smith has been diagnosed with right shoulder soreness and received a cortisone injection Friday, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.

15-Day-IL

Jackson Jobe

(SP) 60-day IL — Jobe (elbow) threw a bullpen session Tuesday, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.

60-Day-IL

Trey Sweeney

(SS) 60-day IL — The Tigers transferred Sweeney (shoulder) to the 60-day injured list Saturday.

60-Day-IL

Reese Olson

(SP) 60-day IL — The Tigers placed Olson on the 60-day injured list Tuesday after he underwent a right shoulder labral repair Feb. 2 that will result in him missing the 2026 season.

60-Day-IL

Parker Meadows

(CF) 60-day IL — Tigers manager A.J. Hinch said that Meadows underwent surgery Tuesday to repair a left radius fracture and will be sidelined "multiple months," Jason Beck of MLB.com reports.

60-Day-IL

Dugan Darnell

(RP) day-to-day — The Tigers announced Sunday that Darnell (hip) has been playing catch five times a week and is also taking part in a running progression, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.

Day-To-Day

Chicago White Sox

Derek Hill

(RF) day-to-day — Hill has been removed from Saturday's starting lineup versus Detroit due to upper-back tightness, James Fegan of SoxMachine.com reports.

Day-To-Day

Munetaka Murakami

(1B) 10-day IL — Murakami has been diagnosed with a Grade 2 right hamstring strain and is expected to miss 4-to-6 weeks, James Fegan of SoxMachine.com reports.

10-Day-IL

Jordan Leasure

(RP) 60-day IL — Leasure (forearm) said Friday that he will be shut down from throwing for four weeks, James Fegan of SoxMachine.com reports.

60-Day-IL

Kyle Teel

60-Day-IL

Noah Schultz

(SP) 15-day IL — Schultz (2-4) took the loss against the Giants on Sunday, allowing six runs on six hits and one walk while striking out one batter across four innings.

15-Day-IL

Ky Bush

(SP) 60-day IL — Bush (elbow) had a setback in his recovery from Tommy John surgery and is unlikely to return until the second half of the season, MLB.com reports.

60-Day-IL

Drew Thorpe

(SP) 60-day IL — Thorpe (elbow) recently underwent an appendectomy but has resumed throwing, MLB.com reports.

60-Day-IL

Austin Hays

(LF) 10-day IL — Hays (calf) will play in at least two more rehab games with Triple-A Charlotte before he is evaluated for a potential return, MLB.com reports.

10-Day-IL

Everson Pereira

(RF) 10-day IL — Pereira (pectoral) resumed throwing Monday, MLB.com reports.

10-Day-IL

Jordan Hicks

(RP) 15-day IL — Hicks was placed on the 15-day injured list Saturday with a right lat strain.

15-Day-IL

Prelander Berroa

(RP) 60-day IL — Berroa is dealing with right elbow inflammation and will have his rehab stint paused, James Fegan of SoxMachine.com reports.

60-Day-IL

Mike Vasil

(RP) 60-day IL — The White Sox transferred Vasil (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Tuesday.

60-Day-IL

Tanner Murray

(LF) 60-day IL — The White Sox transferred Murray (shoulder) to the 60-day injured list Monday.

60-Day-IL

Mason Adams

(RP) day-to-day — The White Sox announced that Adams underwent successful Tommy John surgery Wednesday, Scott Merkin of MLB.com reports.

Day-To-Day

Tim Elko

(1B) out — Elko (knee) agreed to a minor-league contract with the White Sox on Sunday, Jack Ankony of SI.com reports.

Out

Brooks Baldwin

(LF) 60-day IL — The White Sox transferred Baldwin (elbow) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.

60-Day-IL

Live Box Score

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OMEGA ANALYSIS

Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox

+17.8 EV

per $100 wagered

Chicago White Sox 73% High Edge

Strong Edge we bet this

"White Sox ML at +100: Bayesian edge +8.9pp, sharp money confirms, home/away split (18-11 vs 8-22) creates +17.8 EV"

EV Breakdown

Model Prob 59%

Book Implied 50%

Edge +8.9%

Line Movement

Open DET -121 / CHW +100

Current DET -121 / CHW +100

Movement No significant movement detected

Wind 13 mph from left to right — slight boost to home runs and scoring White Sox home record 18-11 vs Tigers road record 8-22 — massive home/away split edge White Sox on 1-day rest, Tigers also on 1-day rest — no rest advantage Injury impact roughly equal (-7.8% each) — no net edge from injuries

Strong positive EV on the White Sox moneyline. The calibrated posterior (58.9%) far exceeds the market-implied 50%, yielding a +17.8% expected return per $100 wagered.

FULL ANALYSIS

The Bayesian fusion model sees a +8.9pp edge on the White Sox moneyline, confirmed by sharp money (11.1% edge, RLM detected) and whale signals (81% consensus, $1.35M volume). The White Sox are 18-11 at home while the Tigers are 8-22 on the road — a massive home/away split that the market is not fully pricing. Wind 13 mph from left to right boosts scoring, supporting the over at 7.5. The total posterior (65.2% over) is the strongest signal in the data, but totals are historically our weakest market (48.7% WR) so confidence is capped at 60. Take the White Sox moneyline as the primary play.

SHARP MONEY

Sharp edge 11.1% on moneyline favors home side (White Sox). RLM detected on moneyline. +EV analysis shows spread away on Bovada at +290 (+50% EV) but that's a retail outlier. Pinnacle fair value (54.4% away) is contradicted by prediction markets (71.5% home) and whale signals (81% home, $1.35M volume). Sharp money consensus: home.

Recommended Sizing

2.0u

Positive EV with multiple confirming factors. Standard sizing.

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE

MONEYLINE Chicago White Sox None

+17.8 EV 73% 2.0u

SPREAD Chicago White Sox 0.0

+12.5 EV 70% 1.5u

TOTAL over 7.5

+4.5 EV 60% 0.5u

MONEYLINE PICK

● 73%

Chicago White Sox 100

Bayesian fusion posterior 58.9% vs market 50.0% — +8.9pp edge confirmed by sharp money (11.1% edge) and whale signals (81% consensus, $1.35M volume)

SPREAD PICK

● 70%

Chicago White Sox 0.0

Sharp edge 21.3% on spread favors away side (White Sox)
+EV analysis shows spread away on Bovada at +290 (+50% EV)
Bayesian posterior 58.9% vs market 50.0%

TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)

○ 60%

OVER 7.5

Bayesian fusion total posterior 65.2% over vs market 50.0% — +15.2pp edge
Wind 13 mph from left to right boosts home runs and scoring
Both starters have ERAs above 3.90

About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary

White Sox ML at -126: Bayesian edge +7.0pp + whale $278K volume = +14.4% EV, but degraded data caps confidence at 55. Under 22.5 is stronger: MC projects 69.5% under probability.

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