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MLB
New York Mets
New York Mets
Mets
Los Angeles Dodgers
Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +33.3% EV
58% Lean
58% Lean
SPREAD
Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers 0.0
"Dodgers +149 ML: extreme $661k whales +2.8% injury edge vs MC, 55% our prob = +21 EV"
EV / $100
+4.1
Win Prob
55%
Edge
+5.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Los Angeles Dodgers None
62%
TOTAL over 24.0
53%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 12.1% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$771351 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (81% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 196 trades Kalshi: 829 trades Largest: $44460
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Total
24.0
Win Prob
40.2%
ML
149 / -149

Player Props Engine

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New York Mets

Los Angeles Dodgers

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -184 / 152 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -157 / 142 -
Value Line - -180 / 143 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (215) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (128) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 9.0 (100)
De-Vigged Fair Value 136 / -136 -150 / 150 O/U 107 / -107
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

New York Mets

C
Clay Holmes
(SP) day-to-day — Manager Carlos Mendoza said Saturday that Holmes' hamstring "checked all the boxes" during a series of strength tests, David Lennon of Newsday reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Juan Soto
(RF) 10-day IL — Soto (calf) could return for the start of the Mets' next homestand April 21, Tim Britton of The Athletic reports.
10-Day-IL
A
A.J. Minter
(RP) 15-day IL — Minter (lat) will begin a rehab assignment with Single-A St. Lucie on Thursday, Michael Mayer of MetsmerizedOnline.com reports.
15-Day-IL
M
Mike Tauchman
(RF) out — Tauchman underwent surgery Thursday to repair the torn meniscus in his left knee, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.
Out
N
Nate Lavender
(RP) day-to-day — Lavender (elbow) cleared outright waivers Wednesday and was returned to the Mets.
Day-To-Day
J
Justin Hagenman
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Hagenman on the 60-day injured list Saturday due to a rib fracture.
60-Day-IL
B
Brandon Waddell
(RP) day-to-day — The Mets outrighted Waddell to Triple-A Syracuse on Friday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
R
Robert Stock
(RP) out — Stock experienced shoulder discomfort while playing with Team Israel in the World Baseball Classic and will undergo testing, Laura Albanese of Newsday reports.
Out
G
Grae Kessinger
(3B) out — Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said that Kessinger will get imaging done after suffering a left knee injury in Friday's Grapefruit League game against the Cardinals, SNY Mets reports.
Out
D
Dedniel Nunez
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets transferred Nunez (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Monday.
60-Day-IL
T
Tylor Megill
(SP) 60-day IL — The Mets and Megill (elbow) avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $2.5 million contract Thursday, Ari Alexander of 7 News Boston reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Reed Garrett
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Garrett (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.
60-Day-IL

Los Angeles Dodgers

B
Brock Stewart
(RP) 15-day IL — Stewart (shoulder) has been facing hitters at the Dodgers' complex in Arizona and is getting close to beginning a minor-league rehab assignment, per MLB.com.
15-Day-IL
M
Mookie Betts
(SS) 10-day IL — Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said Friday that Betts is "symptom-free" in regard to his strained right oblique, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.
10-Day-IL
T
Tommy Edman
(2B) 10-day IL — Edman (ankle) took live at-bats against Blake Snell (shoulder) on Saturday, per MLB.com.
10-Day-IL
B
Blake Snell
(SP) 15-day IL — Snell (shoulder) threw 15 pitches in a live bullpen session Saturday, Bill Plunkett of The Orange County Register reports.
15-Day-IL
B
Brusdar Graterol
(RP) 15-day IL — Manager Dave Roberts said Friday that Graterol (shoulder) has begun throwing bullpen sessions, Sonja Chen of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
G
Gavin Stone
(SP) 60-day IL — Stone (shoulder) has resumed throwing, per MLB.com.
60-Day-IL
J
Jake Cousins
(RP) 60-day IL — The Dodgers transferred Cousins (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
E
Enrique Hernandez
(1B) 60-day IL — Hernandez (elbow) took on-field batting practice at Dodger Stadium on Saturday, Jack Harris of the California Post reports.
60-Day-IL
E
Evan Phillips
(RP) 60-day IL — Phillips (elbow) threw a bullpen session to a squatting catcher March 17, per MLB.com.
60-Day-IL
B
Bobby Miller
(SP) 60-day IL — The Dodgers placed Miller (shoulder) on the 60-day injured list Monday.
60-Day-IL
L
Landon Knack
(SP) 15-day IL — The Dodgers placed Knack on the 15-day injured list Monday due to an intercostal strain, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
Game Preview
New York Mets @ Los Angeles Dodgers
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (215)
Total Over 9.0
Key Injuries
Clay Holmes Day-To-Day
Juan Soto 10-Day-IL
Brock Stewart 15-Day-IL
Mookie Betts 10-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

New York Mets @ Los Angeles Dodgers

+4.1 EV
per $100 wagered
Los Angeles Dodgers 58% Lean
"Dodgers +149 ML: extreme $661k whales +2.8% injury edge vs MC, 55% our prob = +21 EV"
55% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 55%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +5.0%
Line Movement
Current omega_model Spread: 0.0 | Total: 24.0 | ML: Dodgers +149 / Mets -149
Movement No significant movement detected
+EV on home ML at model +149 (breakeven 40.2%, our 55% exceeds by 14.8%)
Model: 51.9% win rate | n=420 — N=420 MLB; leans/spreads profitable, totals/player props losing
FULL ANALYSIS
Whales dump $661k extreme vol (80% home) + Kalshi 62% Dodgers overrides MC 45.5% home win and Omega 40.2%; net injuries +2.8% home edge despite Betts/Soto out. Bayesian 61.6% posterior but VERY_LOW agreement caps conf. Degraded data (no pitchers/odds/weather) forces lean tier only.
SHARP MONEY
Extreme whale volume ($661k, 23 wallets, 80% on home); Kalshi 62% home aligns with Bayesian posterior 61.6%
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Los Angeles Dodgers 0.0
+4.1 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Los Angeles Dodgers None
+20.9 EV 62% 0.5u
TOTAL over 24.0
+0.4 EV 53%
MONEYLINE PICK
● 62%
Los Angeles Dodgers 149
  • Extreme whale signal ($661k vol tier) + Kalshi 62% home vs Omega 40.2%
SPREAD PICK
○ 58%
Los Angeles Dodgers 0.0
  • Net injury impact +2.8% home edge (Mets -9.7% vs Dodgers -6.9%)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 53%
OVER 24.0
  • MC sim 51.4% over despite vig; decomposed ratings 203.0 total outlier
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Dodgers ML +149: Bayesian +15.2% edge over model line + extreme $625k whales + injury tilt
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