Pittsburgh Penguins @ Tampa Bay Lightning

NHL

Pittsburgh Penguins

Penguins

Tampa Bay Lightning

Lightning

Full Game Analysis

NHL

Ω OMEGA PICK

64% Sharp Lean

SPREAD

Pittsburgh Penguins 1.7

"PIT +142 ML (+4.8% edge) as TB gutted by Hedman/Hagel out; sharp on Penguins spread -175"

EV / $100

+3.1

Win Prob

58%

Edge

+8.0%

Size

MONEYLINE Pittsburgh Penguins None

55%

TOTAL under 6.5

54%

Full OMEGA Breakdown

Player Props Engine

Pittsburgh Penguins

Tampa Bay Lightning

Betting Odds Comparison

Source	Spread	Moneyline	Total
Pinnacle	-	-172 / 151 ↑	-
Pinnacle	-1.5 (145)	-	-
Pinnacle	-	-	Over 6.5 (-114)

Line Movement

Open Current

Injury Report

Pittsburgh Penguins

Bryan Rust

(RW) day-to-day — day-to-day

Day-To-Day

Blake Lizotte

Out

Filip Hallander

(C) Injured Reserve — Hallander (leg) was recalled from his conditioning stint with AHL Wilkes-Barre/Scranton on Friday, Seth Rorabaugh of Tribune-Review Sports reports.

Injured Reserve

Peyton Kettles

(D) out — out

Out

Tampa Bay Lightning

Scott Sabourin

(RW) out — out

Out

Brandon Hagel

(LW) out — out

Out

Victor Hedman

(D) out — Hedman (personal) is taking a temporary leave of absence, the Lightning announced Wednesday.

Out

Maxwell Crozier

(D) Injured Reserve — ir-lt

Injured Reserve

Declan Carlile

(D) Injured Reserve — Carlile (lower body) is expected to miss the next 4-5 weeks, the team announced Saturday.

Injured Reserve

Dominic James

(C) Injured Reserve — James (leg) will be sidelined for 8-10 weeks after undergoing surgery, Benjamin Pierce of the Lightning's official site reports Thursday.

Injured Reserve

Game Preview

until puck drop

Current Line

Spread -1.5 (145)

Total Over 6.5

Key Injuries

Bryan Rust Day-To-Day

Blake Lizotte Out

Scott Sabourin Out

Brandon Hagel Out

Analysis starts at puck drop

Get Daily Picks

AI picks delivered to your inbox every morning.

You're in!

Already subscribed!

OMEGA ANALYSIS

Pittsburgh Penguins @ Tampa Bay Lightning

+3.1 EV

per $100 wagered

Pittsburgh Penguins 64% Sharp Lean

"PIT +142 ML (+4.8% edge) as TB gutted by Hedman/Hagel out; sharp on Penguins spread -175"

EV Breakdown

Model Prob 58%

Book Implied 50%

Edge +8.0%

Line Movement

Current TB -170 ML / TB -170 spread / O/U 6.5

Movement No movement data

No ML value on TB at -170 (breakeven 63%); PIT ML +142 offers marginal value but injuries cap edge

Model: 43.4% win rate | n=122 — NHL totals losing consistently; prioritize ML/spread per tier data

FULL ANALYSIS

TB -170 inflated despite Hedman/Hagel out crippling D/depth; PIT gets line value at +142 ML (our 58% prob vs 41% implied) and sharp spread action (-175). Injuries cascade: TB missing top-pair D boosts Crosby/Karlsson shots 15-20%. Model spreads 83% in lean tier but 43% overall NHL caps sizing.

SHARP MONEY

Spread odds divergence: TB ML -170 but spread TB +145 vs PIT -175 signals sharp money on Penguins covering

Recommended Sizing

Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE

SPREAD Pittsburgh Penguins 1.7

+3.1 EV 64% 1u

MONEYLINE Pittsburgh Penguins None

+2.4 EV 55% 0.5u

TOTAL under 6.5

+1.2 EV 54%

MONEYLINE PICK

● 65%

Tampa Bay Lightning -262

Omega ELO gives Tampa 37% win prob vs Poisson 23.6%, creating ML value despite even goal expectations

SPREAD PICK

● 62%

Pittsburgh Penguins PK

Omega spread at 0.0 with 9.6-9.6 expected scores shows no edge to Tampa's ELO-favored ML

TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)

● 60%

UNDER 19.0 19.0

Poisson model projects exactly 19.2 combined but NHL unders hit 52% at model totals with injuries thinning scoring

About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary

Tampa ML -262: ELO 37% win prob vs Poisson even goals (+1.2 EV); injuries offset but TBL home ice tips scale

Partner Spotlight

Want to reach bettors who use data?

partnerships@degendailynews.com

21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-522-4700