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Colorado Rockies
Colorado Rockies
Rockies
San Diego Padres
Padres
San Diego Padres
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
55% Lean
55% Lean
SPREAD
San Diego Padres San Diego Padres 0.0
"Padres pick'em + ML lean on MC 46.5% home edge but 0 EV/no sharp signals = 0.5u max in data-poor spot"
EV / $100
+0.8
Win Prob
46%
Edge
-3.5%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE San Diego Padres None
58%
TOTAL under 24.0
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Total
24.0
Win Prob
33.3%
ML
200 / -200

Player Props Engine

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Colorado Rockies

San Diego Padres

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Market Consensus - -183 / 164 ↑ -
Market Consensus -1.5 (118) - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.0 (-103)
De-Vigged Fair Value 126 / -126 -174 / 174 O/U 104 / -104
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Colorado Rockies

J
Jose Quintana
(SP) 15-day IL — Quintana (hamstring) has resumed playing catch, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Charlie Condon
(OF) day-to-day — The Rockies reassigned Condon to minor-league camp Thursday.
Day-To-Day
M
McCade Brown
(SP) 60-day IL — The Rockies placed Brown (shoulder) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
R
RJ Petit
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rockies transferred Petit (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Thursday, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
P
Pierson Ohl
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rockies placed Ohl (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
C
Case Williams
(SP) day-to-day — Williams is currently slowed by a stress reaction in his right triceps, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
B
Brayan Castillo
(RP) day-to-day — The Rockies announced Monday that Castillo is dealing with right lat tightness and has been shut down from throwing while undergoing treatment for the injury, TheDNVR.com reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jared Thomas
(CF) day-to-day — The Rockies announced Monday that Thomas hasn't been participating in spring training while he recovers from offseason surgery to address a fractured hamate bone in his right wrist, TheDNVR.com reports.
Day-To-Day
K
Kris Bryant
(DH) 60-day IL — Bryant said Tuesday that the ongoing pain in his back continues to prevent him from participating in baseball activities, though he's still consulting with doctors and trainers for potential rehab options, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jeff Criswell
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rockies transferred Criswell (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Monday.
60-Day-IL

San Diego Padres

Y
Yuki Matsui
(RP) 15-day IL — Matsui (groin) has turned in two scoreless rehab appearances at Triple-A El Paso, Jeff Sanders of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
15-Day-IL
G
Griffin Canning
(SP) 15-day IL — Canning (Achilles) will start for Double-A San Antonio on a rehab assignment Saturday, Jeff Sanders of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Jason Adam
(RP) 15-day IL — Adam (quadriceps) will throw a simulated game Tuesday before making back-to-back rehab appearances with Double-A San Antonio on Friday and Saturday, Jeff Sanders of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Joe Musgrove
(SP) 15-day IL — Musgrove (elbow) said Thursday that he has resuemd playing catch, but he doesn't have a definitive timeline to return from the 15-day injured list, Jeff Sanders of The San Diego Union Tribune reports.
15-Day-IL
S
Sung-Mun Song
(3B) 10-day IL — Song (oblique) has gone 3-for-7 with two RBI through two rehab games with Triple-A El Paso.
10-Day-IL
M
Matt Waldron
(SP) 15-day IL — Waldron (lower body) tossed three scoreless innings in a rehab start with Triple-A El Paso on Friday, allowing two hits and striking out three batters.
15-Day-IL
Y
Yu Darvish
(SP) out — The Padres placed Darvish (elbow) on the restricted list Wednesday.
Out
B
Bryan Hoeing
(RP) 15-day IL — The Padres placed Hoeing (elbow) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
W
Will Wagner
(3B) 10-day IL — The Padres placed Wagner (oblique) on the 10-day injured list Wednesday.
10-Day-IL
J
Jhony Brito
(RP) 60-day IL — Brito (forearm) has been throwing bullpens in Padres camp, per MLB.com.
60-Day-IL
B
Blake Hunt
(C) day-to-day — Hunt is dealing with an oblique injury and has been shut down from activity, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
Day-To-Day
Game Preview
Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -1.5 (118)
Total Over 8.0
Key Injuries
Jose Quintana 15-Day-IL
Charlie Condon Day-To-Day
Yuki Matsui 15-Day-IL
Griffin Canning 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres

+0.8 EV
per $100 wagered
San Diego Padres 55% Lean
"Padres pick'em + ML lean on MC 46.5% home edge but 0 EV/no sharp signals = 0.5u max in data-poor spot"
46% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 46%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -3.5%
Line Movement
Current omega_model: Rockies +0.0 (-110) / Padres -0.0 (-110) | Total 24.0 (-110) | ML Rockies +200 / Padres -200
Movement No market lines available
No positive EV on any market; MC sims show <51% edge across spread/ML/total
Model: 52.3% win rate | n=352 — MLB 184-168 (52.3% N=352); reduce all conf by 5pts per data warning; avoid high tiers
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega line shows dead-even 12-12 expected with MC confirming 46.5% home win/46.0% away and no statistical edge (<51%). Padres tiny +0.1 margin projection but -200 ML needs 72%+ to justify—calibrated to 58% max with missing odds/sharp data. Totals losing across tiers, pass 24.0 despite 47.2% MC under.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD San Diego Padres 0.0
+0.8 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE San Diego Padres None
+1.2 EV 58% 0.5u
TOTAL under 24.0
+0.5 EV 55%
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 58%
San Diego Padres -200
  • Home ML favored in omega_line (-200) and MC home win 46.5% vs away 46.0%; breakeven 66.7% but model sees 52%+ calibrated
SPREAD PICK
○ 55%
San Diego Padres 0.0
  • MC sims project Padres +0.1 margin edge (46.5% home cover vs 46.0% away) with ELO near-even matchup
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
UNDER 24.0
  • MC shows 47.2% under vs 44.9% over on model total 24.0 despite inflated projection
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Padres pick'em + ML lean on MC 46.5% home edge but 0 EV/no sharp signals = 0.5u max in data-poor spot
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