Serie A
Genoa
Genoa
Fiorentina
Fiorentina
Player Props Engine
Powered by OMEGAGenoa
Fiorentina
ELO Model Lines
MODELSpread
0.4
Moneyline
FIO -106
/
GEN 106
Win Probability
52%
-
48%
ELO model estimate — not sportsbook lines. Market odds shown above when available from consensus sources.
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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS
Genoa @ Fiorentina
+-17.1 EV
per $100 wagered
Genoa
55%
Lean
"Genoa +255 ML: 51.2% model win prob vs 28% breakeven = +81 EV (poor data caps sizing)"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
51%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
+1.2%
Line Movement
Current
Fiorentina -0.5 (+100) / Genoa +0.5 (-140); ML Fiorentina -105 / Genoa +255; Total 2.5 (-110)
Movement
No significant line movement detected
Strong EV on Genoa ML due to 51.2% model prob vs +255 breakeven of 28.2%; spread and total neutral to negative
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian fusion pegs Genoa win prob at 51.2% matching de-vigged market but +255 vigged odds yield +81.8 EV per $100. No injuries, rest, or travel edges with insufficient models (Poisson/ELO failed). DDN 3-0 vs Genoa supports underdog lean despite N=0 sport sample.
MONEYLINE PICK
○
60%
Genoa 255
- Bayesian posterior 51.2% Genoa win prob crushes +255 breakeven of 28.2%
SPREAD PICK
○
55%
Genoa 0.5
- Model projects 51.2% chance Genoa covers +0.5 (win or draw) vs -140 breakeven 58.3%
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
55%
UNDER 2.5
- Serie A avg ~2.6 goals but totals historically losing (46.7% WR in leans)
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Genoa +255 ML: 51.2% model win prob vs 28% breakeven = +81 EV (poor data caps sizing)
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