Home › NCAA Football › Ohio Bobcats @ Akron Zips
NCAA Football
Ohio Bobcats
Ohio Bobcats
Bobcats
Akron Zips
Zips
Akron Zips
Full Game Analysis
NCAA Football
Ω DDN SI PICK
58% Lean
58% Lean
SPREAD
Ohio Bobcats Ohio Bobcats -14.0
"Ohio's -575 ML is unplayable vig — take Ohio -14 at -110 in a spot the model caps at 58% confidence, small 0.5u only."
EV / $100
+1.8
Win Prob
78%
Edge
-7.2%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Akron Zips None
50%
TOTAL under 51.5
60%
Full DDN SI Breakdown
⚠
Key Number Alert
KEY NUMBER: Spread at 14.0 — 4.2% of NFL games land on 14. Buying the half point is worth ~2.1% win probability. Pay up to -120 for the buy.

Player Props Engine

Powered by DDN SI

Ohio Bobcats

Akron Zips

DDN SI Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
-17.9
Moneyline
AKR 1316 / OHI -1316
Win Probability
7% - 93%

DDN SI model estimate — not sportsbook lines. Market odds shown above when available from consensus sources.

Game Preview
Ohio Bobcats @ Akron Zips
until tip-off
Analysis starts at tip-off

Get Daily Picks

DDN SI picks delivered to your inbox every morning.

You're in!

Already subscribed!

Ω
DDN SI ANALYSIS

Ohio Bobcats @ Akron Zips

+1.8 EV
per $100 wagered
Ohio Bobcats 58% Lean
"Ohio's -575 ML is unplayable vig — take Ohio -14 at -110 in a spot the model caps at 58% confidence, small 0.5u only."
78% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 78%
Book Implied 85%
Edge -7.2%
Line Movement
Current Spread: Akron +14.0 (-110/-110), Total 51.5, ML Ohio -575 / Akron +425
Movement No opening line data; source line only (DraftKings)
Mid-week MAC road spot for a heavy favorite (flat-risk spot)
Ohio ML at -575 requires 85.2% breakeven; our estimate of ~78% makes the moneyline heavily negative EV — the value, if any, sits in the spread, not the juiced favorite
FULL ANALYSIS
Ohio at -575 is a no-bet: that price demands 85.2% and our independent read is only ~78% — the ML is pure vig. The playable angle is the spread at -14 (-110), where the model sees a smaller true margin (~11-12) than the market implies, though the number sits exactly on the key 14 and we lack roster/injury data. Total is a small under lean at 51.5; MAC midweek scoring tends to disappoint, but totals are our weakest market so sizing stays tiny.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Ohio Bobcats -14.0
+1.8 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Akron Zips None
-3.0 EV 50%
TOTAL under 51.5
+2.1 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 50%
Akron Zips 425
  • Akron at +425 implies ~19% — plausible only as a small live-dog lottery, not a playable edge; confidence stays at PASS
SPREAD PICK
○ 58%
Ohio Bobcats -14.0
  • Model projects Ohio by only ~11-12 points; buying the two-touchdown number below the market's implied 87% ML gives a modest margin-of-victory edge at standard juice
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 60%
UNDER 51.5
  • Two MAC offenses with limited scoring efficiency and a cold mid-week November spot point to a 47-50 range, below the 51.5 market number
About This Analysis

DDN SI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Ohio's -575 ML is unplayable vig — take Ohio -14 at -110 in a spot the model caps at 58% confidence, small 0.5u only.
Partner Spotlight

Want to reach bettors who use data?

partnerships@degendailynews.com

21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-522-4700