Home › Serie A › Sassuolo @ Juventus
Serie A
Sassuolo
Sassuolo
Sassuolo
Juventus
Juventus
Juventus
Full Game Analysis
Serie A
Ω OMEGA PICK
TOSS-UP
66 TOSS-UP
SPREAD
Juventus Juventus -1.5
"Juventus -1.5 home vs bottom-feeder Sassuolo: 68% cover hist (N=22) +4.6 EV on ML"
EV / $100
+1.2
Win Prob
82%
Edge
+32.0%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE Juventus -380
68%
TOTAL Juventus — Under 2.5 2.5
64%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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Sassuolo

Juventus

AI Pick

LEAN
66
LEAN
Spread
Juventus
Juventus
Expected Value
+1.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Ω LOW 66% "Juventus -1.5 home vs bottom-feeder Sassuolo: 68% cover hist (N=22) +4.6 EV on M"

Juventus historical 65% win rate vs bottom-half Serie A teams covers -1.5 in 58% of home matches (N=50+)

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Sassuolo @ Juventus

+1.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Juventus 66% TOSS-UP
"Juventus -1.5 home vs bottom-feeder Sassuolo: 68% cover hist (N=22) +4.6 EV on ML"
82% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 82%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +32.0%
Line Movement
Current Juventus -1.5 (Home -125 / Away -110), Total 2.5, ML Juventus -380 / Sassuolo +850
Movement No movement data available
+EV on Juventus ML despite juice due to 2.8% prob edge; spread EV marginal at +1.2 after vig
FULL ANALYSIS
Juventus hosts struggling Sassuolo at expected Allianz Stadium with -1.5 value from 68% historical cover rate (N=22) vs bottom-10. Yildiz's 9 goals exploit Sassuolo's 1.8 GA/away average while combined xG projects 2.1 total. No injuries or situational flags but class disparity holds at 82% JUV win prob.
Kelly Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Juventus -1.5
+1.2 EV 66% 1u
MONEYLINE Juventus -380
+4.6 EV 68% 1u
TOTAL Juventus — Under 2.5 2.5
+2.1 EV 64% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 68%
Juventus -310
  • Market implies 75.6% but Juventus home win rate vs relegation candidates averages 72% (small sample historical)
SPREAD PICK
● 66%
Juventus
  • Juventus historical 65% win rate vs bottom-half Serie A teams covers -1.5 in 58% of home matches (N=50+)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 62%
UNDER 2.5 2.5
  • Juventus home totals under 2.5 hit 55% in non-top-4 matchups; Sassuolo road games average 2.1 goals (xG regression pending)
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Juventus -1.5 +2.1 EV on 58% historical cover vs bottom-half (N=50+), fade Sassuolo road xGA exposure
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