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Washington Nationals
Washington Nationals
Nationals
Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
68% Strong
68% Strong
MONEYLINE
Washington Nationals Washington Nationals
"Omega 12-12 vs market total 8.0 (+16pt edge); Nats ML +218 has 5.8 EV vs PHI overpriced -271"
EV / $100
+5.8
Win Prob
29%
Edge
-20.6%
Size
1u
SPREAD Washington Nationals +271
65%
TOTAL Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals Over 8.0 8.0
72%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +271.0
Total
24.0
Edge: +16.0
Win Prob
29.4%
ML
240 / -240

Player Props Engine

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Washington Nationals

Philadelphia Phillies

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Pinnacle - -253 / 221 ↑ -
Pinnacle -1.5 (-114) - -
Pinnacle - - Over 8.0 (-111)
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Washington Nationals

P
Paxton Schultz
(RP) 15-day IL — Schultz (elbow) struck out two and allowed no hits and one walk over 1.2 scoreless innings in his first rehab appearance Saturday for Triple-A Rochester.
15-Day-IL
J
Josiah Gray
(SP) 60-day IL — The Nationals optioned Gray to Triple-A Rochester on Thursday.
60-Day-IL
D
DJ Herz
(SP) 60-day IL — Herz (elbow) threw a bullpen session Friday, Jessica Camerato of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Trevor Williams
(SP) 60-day IL — The Nationals announced that Williams (elbow) has resumed his throwing progression and made 25 tosses from 60 feet Wednesday, Jessica Camerato of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Joan Adon
(RP) out — no
Out
T
Tyler Stuart
(SP) out — Stuart underwent Tommy John surgery earlier this week, Bobby Blanco of MASNSports.com reports.
Out
J
Jarlin Susana
(RP) out — Susana underwent surgery last week to repair a right lat tear, Spencer Nusbaum of The Washington Post reports.
Out
T
Travis Sykora
(SP) out — Sykora will undergo a UCL reconstruction on his right elbow in two weeks, Andrew Golden of The Washington Post reports.
Out

Philadelphia Phillies

A
Aidan Miller
(SS) day-to-day — Phillies manager Rob Thomson said Tuesday that Miller (back) has increased his rehab activities but is not yet swinging a bat, Todd Zolecki of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
Z
Zack Wheeler
(SP) 15-day IL — Wheeler (shoulder) struck out three and scattered two hits and one walk over three scoreless frames in a rehab start Saturday for Triple-A Lehigh Valley.
15-Day-IL
D
Daniel Robert
(RP) day-to-day — Robert suffered a cardiac incident Sunday while preparing to throw a bullpen session and was taken to a local hospital, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
K
Keaton Anthony
(1B) day-to-day — Anthony suffered a fractured toe after fouling a ball off his foot during Monday's Grapefruit League game versus the Red Sox, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
Day-To-Day
A
Andrew Bechtold
(3B) day-to-day — Bechtold signed a minor-league contract with the Blue Jays on Dec. 1.
Day-To-Day
O
Orion Kerkering
(RP) 15-day IL — Kerkering (hamstring) threw a clean inning in Saturday's minor-league rehab appearance for Triple-A Lehigh Valley, striking out one.
15-Day-IL
M
Max Lazar
(RP) 15-day IL — Phillies manager Rob Thomson said Tuesday that Lazar is dealing with a "mild" oblique injury and is returning to big-league camp to be evaluated, Jayson Stark of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Johan Rojas
(CF) Suspension — MLB announced Monday that Rojas has been suspended 80 games for violating the league's policy against performance-enhancing drugs, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.
suspension
M
Michael Mercado
(RP) day-to-day — The Phillies reassigned Mercado (shoulder) to minor-league camp Thursday, Todd Zolecki of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
M
Mark Kolozsvary
(C) day-to-day — Kolozsvary (undisclosed) agreed to a minor-league contract with the Phillies on Friday that includes an invitation to spring training, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
C
Christian McGowan
(RP) out — McGowan will miss the remainder of the season following Tommy John surgery, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com reports.
Out
Game Preview
Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -1.5 (-114)
Total Over 8.0
Key Injuries
Paxton Schultz 15-Day-IL
Josiah Gray 60-Day-IL
Aidan Miller Day-To-Day
Zack Wheeler 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies

+5.8 EV
per $100 wagered
Washington Nationals 68% Strong
"Omega 12-12 vs market total 8.0 (+16pt edge); Nats ML +218 has 5.8 EV vs PHI overpriced -271"
29% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 29%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -20.6%
Line Movement
Current PHI -271 / Total 8.0
Movement No movement data
Massive +EV on Nationals ML vs overpriced PHI favorite; omega expected scores 12-12 vs market total 8.0
Model: 53.3% win rate | n=75 — Nats 4W-2L vs model; Phillies 2W-5L. H2H mixed (1-2 yesterday)
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega poisson projects 12-12 runs (total 24) vs market 8.0—16pt total edge from depleted Nats rotation (4 SPs out). PHI -271 implies 73% win but model 29.4% with 0.0 spread; Nats +218 ML has +5.8 EV. Yesterday Nats covered spread in loss, model vs PHI 2-5 historically.
SHARP MONEY
Omega line shows 0.0 spread vs market -271 (271pt discrepancy); model poisson projects 24 runs vs market 8.0 total
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE Washington Nationals
+5.8 EV 68% 1u
SPREAD Washington Nationals +271
+4.2 EV 65% 1u
TOTAL Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals Over 8.0 8.0
+6.1 EV 72% 1.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 62%
Washington Nationals +209
  • Omega model win prob 27.6% vs market-implied 32.4% after vig (edge on underdog)
SPREAD PICK
○ 59%
Washington Nationals +1.5
  • Omega spread 0.0 vs market PHI -259 equivalent (+2.5ish spread), model projects 12-12 scores
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 68%
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES — UNDER 8.5
  • Omega total 24.0 vs market 8.5, Poisson projects 12.0-12.0 runs (market 68% underpriced)
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Model totals 24.0 vs 8.5 market (+12.1 EV under) + Nats ML +209 edge on 27.6% omega prob
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