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MLB
Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians
Guardians
Los Angeles Dodgers
Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
72% Strong
72% Strong
MONEYLINE
Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians
"Guardians +218 ML has +64.6 EV as omega_model projects 12-12 vs -271 market overreaction"
EV / $100
+64.6
Win Prob
36%
Edge
-14.1%
Size
2u
SPREAD Cleveland Guardians +271
69%
TOTAL Over 8.5 8.5
75%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +271.0
Total
24.0
Edge: +15.5
Win Prob
35.9%
ML
179 / -179

Player Props Engine

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Cleveland Guardians

Los Angeles Dodgers

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Pinnacle - -256 / 223 ↑ -
Pinnacle -1.5 (-115) - -
Pinnacle - - Over 8.5 (101)
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Cleveland Guardians

G
George Valera
(RF) 10-day IL — Valera (calf) began a rehab assignment at Triple-A Columbus on Tuesday, SI.com reports.
10-Day-IL
H
Hunter Gaddis
(RP) 15-day IL — Gaddis (forearm) allowed one walk while striking out one batter in a scoreless inning during his rehab appearance with Triple-A Columbus on Saturday, Tim Stebbins of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
A
Andrew Walters
(RP) 15-day IL — The Guardians placed Walters (lat) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
C
Carlos Hernandez
(RP) out — Hernandez is making progress but is still in the midst of a rehab program after suffering fractures to his left arm and right leg during a Jan. 11 car accident in Venezuela, SI.com reports.
Out

Los Angeles Dodgers

E
Enrique Hernandez
(1B) 60-day IL — Hernandez (elbow) took on-field batting practice at Dodger Stadium on Saturday, Jack Harris of the California Post reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Tommy Edman
(2B) 10-day IL — Edman (ankle) took on-field batting practice Saturday and is progressing well, Jack Harris of the California Post reports.
10-Day-IL
B
Brock Stewart
(RP) 15-day IL — Stewart (shoulder) will begin throwing live batting practice Friday, Sonja Chen of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Jake Cousins
(RP) 15-day IL — The Dodgers signed Cousins (elbow) to a one-year contract Tuesday.
15-Day-IL
E
Evan Phillips
(RP) 60-day IL — Phillips (elbow) threw a bullpen session to a squatting catcher March 17, per MLB.com.
60-Day-IL
B
Blake Snell
(SP) 15-day IL — The Dodgers placed Snell (shoulder) on the 15-day injured list Monday.
15-Day-IL
B
Brusdar Graterol
(RP) 15-day IL — Graterol (shoulder) was spotted playing catch out to about 90 feet Monday, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
B
Bobby Miller
(SP) 60-day IL — The Dodgers placed Miller (shoulder) on the 60-day injured list Monday.
60-Day-IL
G
Gavin Stone
(SP) 15-day IL — The Dodgers placed Stone (shoulder) on the 15-day injured list Monday.
15-Day-IL
L
Landon Knack
(SP) 15-day IL — The Dodgers placed Knack on the 15-day injured list Monday due to an intercostal strain, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
Game Preview
Cleveland Guardians @ Los Angeles Dodgers
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -1.5 (-115)
Total Over 8.5
Key Injuries
George Valera 10-Day-IL
Hunter Gaddis 15-Day-IL
Enrique Hernandez 60-Day-IL
Tommy Edman 10-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Cleveland Guardians @ Los Angeles Dodgers

+64.62 EV
per $100 wagered
Cleveland Guardians 72% Strong
"Guardians +218 ML has +64.6 EV as omega_model projects 12-12 vs -271 market overreaction"
36% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 36%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -14.1%
Line Movement
Current LAD -271 / Guardians +218 / Total 8.5
Movement No movement data
Massive +EV on Guardians ML vs overpriced -271 favorite; omega_model sees 12-12 expected scores
Model: 53.3% win rate | n=75 — Based on N=75 graded MLB outcomes; recent 7d -2.31u flags caution
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega_model's 12-12 expected scores obliterates -271 pricing (35.9% Guardians win prob vs 73% implied); total edge 15.5pts on 24.0 projection vs 8.5 market. H2H 2-1 Guardians ML (N=3 small). Multiple IL arms both sides but LAD depth hit harder.
Recommended Sizing
2u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE Cleveland Guardians
+64.6 EV 72% 2u
SPREAD Cleveland Guardians +271
+45.2 EV 69% 1u
TOTAL Over 8.5 8.5
+18.4 EV 75% 1.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 68%
Cleveland Guardians +218
  • Omega Poisson projects 12-12 expected scores (35.9% CLE win prob) vs market's 73% implied on -271
SPREAD PICK
● 65%
Cleveland Guardians +271
  • Omega spread 0.0 vs market -271 = 271pt discrepancy; model sees even matchup
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 72%
OVER 8.5 8.5
  • Omega total 24.0 vs market 8.5 (15.5pt edge); Poisson expects 24 combined runs
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Omega 12-12 proj vs LAD -271 (+64 EV CLE ML) and 24.0 total vs 8.5 market—early season line steam
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