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New York Mets
New York Mets
Mets
St. Louis Cardinals
Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
68% Strong
68% Strong
MONEYLINE
St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals
"Cardinals +141 (50% model prob vs 41% implied) + O7.5 (24.0 omega total vs market) = +20EV edges on mispriced early lines"
EV / $100
+20.9
Win Prob
50%
Size
1u
SPREAD St. Louis Cardinals +171
65%
TOTAL St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Mets OVER 7.5 7.5
72%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +171.0
Total
24.0
Edge: +16.5
Win Prob
33.2%
ML
201 / -201

Player Props Engine

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New York Mets

St. Louis Cardinals

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Pinnacle - 154 / -171 ↑ -
Pinnacle 1.5 (-112) - -
Pinnacle - - Over 7.5 (-115)
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

New York Mets

M
Mike Tauchman
(RF) out — Tauchman underwent surgery Thursday to repair the torn meniscus in his left knee, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.
Out
A
A.J. Minter
(RP) 15-day IL — The Mets placed Minter (lat) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
N
Nate Lavender
(RP) day-to-day — Lavender (elbow) cleared outright waivers Wednesday and was returned to the Mets.
Day-To-Day
J
Justin Hagenman
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Hagenman on the 60-day injured list Saturday due to a rib fracture.
60-Day-IL
B
Brandon Waddell
(RP) day-to-day — The Mets outrighted Waddell to Triple-A Syracuse on Friday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
R
Robert Stock
(RP) out — Stock experienced shoulder discomfort while playing with Team Israel in the World Baseball Classic and will undergo testing, Laura Albanese of Newsday reports.
Out
G
Grae Kessinger
(3B) out — Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said that Kessinger will get imaging done after suffering a left knee injury in Friday's Grapefruit League game against the Cardinals, SNY Mets reports.
Out
D
Dedniel Nunez
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets transferred Nunez (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Monday.
60-Day-IL
T
Tylor Megill
(SP) 60-day IL — The Mets and Megill (elbow) avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $2.5 million contract Thursday, Ari Alexander of 7 News Boston reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Reed Garrett
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Garrett (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.
60-Day-IL

St. Louis Cardinals

M
Matt Pushard
(RP) 15-day IL — The Cardinals have informed Pushard that he will be on the Opening Day roster, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
15-Day-IL
H
Hunter Dobbins
(SP) 15-day IL — Dobbins (knee) will begin a rehab assignment Tuesday at Triple-A Memphis, Daniel Guerrero of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
15-Day-IL
I
Ixan Henderson
(SP) day-to-day — Henderson (elbow) is starting the season on the 60-day injured list at Triple-A Memphis.
Day-To-Day
L
Lars Nootbaar
(LF) 60-day IL — Cardinals president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom said Monday that Nootbaar (heels) will be evaluated this week for potential placement on the 60-day injured list, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
60-Day-IL
V
Victor Santos
(RP) day-to-day — Santos (elbow) has compiled a 3.97 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 26:7 K:BB across 34 innings over his first nine outings (seven starts) in the Dominican Winter League.
Day-To-Day
S
Sem Robberse
(SP) day-to-day — Robberse (elbow) signed a minor-league contract with the Cardinals on Monday, which includes an invitation to spring training, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
Day-To-Day
Z
Zack Thompson
(RP) day-to-day — The Cardinals reassigned Thompson (shoulder) to minor-league camp Monday.
Day-To-Day
Game Preview
New York Mets @ St. Louis Cardinals
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 1.5 (-112)
Total Over 7.5
Key Injuries
Mike Tauchman Out
A.J. Minter 15-Day-IL
Matt Pushard 15-Day-IL
Hunter Dobbins 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

New York Mets @ St. Louis Cardinals

+20.95 EV
per $100 wagered
St. Louis Cardinals 68% Strong
"Cardinals +141 (50% model prob vs 41% implied) + O7.5 (24.0 omega total vs market) = +20EV edges on mispriced early lines"
50% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 50%
Book Implied 50%
Edge 0.0%
Line Movement
Current NYM -171 / STL +141 / Total 7.5
Movement No movement data available
+20.95 EV on Cardinals ML at +141 vs our 50% prob (market implies 41.5%)
Model: 53.3% win rate | n=75 — Omega Poisson detecting total value; early season edges amplified
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega model sees dead pick'em (12-12 expected) vs Mets -171 ML overreaction, delivering +21 EV on Cardinals +141. Total 7.5 is 16.5pts undervalued vs Poisson 24.0 projection amid pitcher injuries both sides. H2H model 2-0 Cardinals yesterday confirms situational lean.
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE St. Louis Cardinals
+20.9 EV 68% 1u
SPREAD St. Louis Cardinals +171
+15.2 EV 65% 0.5u
TOTAL St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Mets OVER 7.5 7.5
+25.4 EV 72% 1.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 68%
St. Louis Cardinals +139
  • Omega Poisson/ELO projects 50% win prob for even matchup vs market-implied 41.8%
SPREAD PICK
● 65%
St. Louis Cardinals +1.5
  • Omega spread 0.0 vs market NYM -168 implies Cardinals cover +1.5 in 65% sims
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 72%
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS @ NEW YORK METS OVER 8.0 8.0
  • Omega total 24.0 vs market 8.0 (expected 12-12 scores) creates largest discrepancy
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Cardinals +139 (19.6 EV) as omega_model sees 50-50 vs -168 chalk + over 8.0 (28 EV) on 24.0 total projection
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