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Osasuna
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Deportivo
Deportivo
Deportivo
Full Game Analysis
La Liga
Ω DDN SI PICK
60% Lean
60% Lean
SPREAD
Deportivo Deportivo -0.5
"Deportivo -0.5 at +105 priced at 48.8% implied vs our 54% home-win model — a 5-point edge on the lowest-risk price on the board."
EV / $100
+4.7
Win Prob
54%
Edge
+5.2%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Deportivo None
60%
TOTAL over 2.5
56%
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Osasuna

Deportivo

DDN SI Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
4.2
Moneyline
DEP -182 / OSA 182
Win Probability
65% - 35%

DDN SI model estimate — not sportsbook lines. Market odds shown above when available from consensus sources.

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Osasuna @ Deportivo
until kickoff
Analysis starts at kickoff

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Recorded picks and reasons

These are the saved selections and explanations from the public results record. The analysis below may have been refreshed later.

Spread: Deportivo -0.5 (+105) PENDING · Recorded 2026-11-01T23:40:40.878402 UTC

Deportivo at home priced at +105 to cover -0.5 (essentially win the match) while the de-vigged moneyline implies ~62% combined home+favorites lean, giving the model's 54% home-win estimate a ~5-point edge over the implied 48.8%.

Ω
DDN SI ANALYSIS

Osasuna @ Deportivo

+4.7 EV
per $100 wagered
Deportivo 60% Lean
"Deportivo -0.5 at +105 priced at 48.8% implied vs our 54% home-win model — a 5-point edge on the lowest-risk price on the board."
54% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 54%
Book Implied 49%
Edge +5.2%
Line Movement
Current Home -0.5 at +105, Away +0.5 at -145; Total 2.5 (over +120 / under -150)
Movement No opening line or movement data supplied
Model projects Deportivo win probability at 54% vs the +105 spread price implying 48.8% for the home side to cover -0.5 (a straight win), producing modest positive EV of about $4.7 per $100 as a model-projected estimate without validated sport models.
FULL ANALYSIS
Books are juicing the opposite direction on this fixture: Osasuna +0.5 at -145 and the under at -150 both carry more than 58% implied vig-loaded probability, while Deportivo -0.5 at +105 is the cheapest price on the most likely single outcome. The model puts Deportivo's win chance at 54% against a 48.8% implied on the spread side, which is where the small edge lives. With no injuries, pace, or sharp-money data supplied and no validated La Liga model history, this stays a two-half-unit Lean, not a strong play. The draw (~22-24%) is the main killer of both the spread and moneyline positions.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Deportivo -0.5
+4.7 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Deportivo None
+16.1 EV 60% 0.5u
TOTAL over 2.5
+10.0 EV 56% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 60%
Deportivo 115
  • Deportivo win-only at +115 requires just 46.5% to break even, and the model's 54% home-win estimate clears that breakeven by more than 5 points
SPREAD PICK
○ 60%
Deportivo -0.5
  • Deportivo at home priced at +105 to cover -0.5 (essentially win the match) while the de-vigged moneyline implies ~62% combined home+favorites lean, giving the model's 54% home-win estimate a ~5-point edge over the implied 48.8%
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 56%
OVER 2.5
  • The under at -150 is juiced to 60% implied on a 2.5-line, leaving the over at +120 with roughly a 50% model estimate vs a 45.5% implied breakeven for a positive-EV but low-conviction lean
About This Analysis

DDN SI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Deportivo +115 priced softer than its own -0.5 spread — a 5-cent book gap is the only edge, and with no model data we're passing at +2.8 EV.
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