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San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres
Padres
Boston Red Sox
Sox
Boston Red Sox
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
74% High Edge
74% High Edge
SPREAD
Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox -1.5
"BOS spread +47 EV (Pinnacle 40.8% fair vs +260) + 14.4% sharp divergence despite omega neutral spread"
EV / $100
+47.0
Win Prob
31%
Edge
-18.7%
Size
2.0u
MONEYLINE San Diego Padres None
64%
TOTAL over 9.0
58%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +156.0
Total
24.0
Edge: +15.0
Win Prob
31.3%
ML
220 / -220

Player Props Engine

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San Diego Padres

Boston Red Sox

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Market Consensus - -150 / 138 ↑ -
Market Consensus -1.5 (137) - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.5 (-115)
Fair Value Fair Value 145 / -145 -144 / 144 O/U -108 / 108
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

San Diego Padres

G
Griffin Canning
(SP) 15-day IL — Canning (Achilles) will start for Double-A San Antonio on a rehab assignment Saturday, Jeff Sanders of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Jason Adam
(RP) 15-day IL — Adam (quadriceps) will throw a simulated game Tuesday before making back-to-back rehab appearances with Double-A San Antonio on Friday and Saturday, Jeff Sanders of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Joe Musgrove
(SP) 15-day IL — Musgrove (elbow) said Thursday that he has resuemd playing catch, but he doesn't have a definitive timeline to return from the 15-day injured list, Jeff Sanders of The San Diego Union Tribune reports.
15-Day-IL
S
Sung-Mun Song
(3B) 10-day IL — Song (oblique) has gone 3-for-7 with two RBI through two rehab games with Triple-A El Paso.
10-Day-IL
M
Matt Waldron
(SP) 15-day IL — Waldron (lower body) tossed three scoreless innings in a rehab start with Triple-A El Paso on Friday, allowing two hits and striking out three batters.
15-Day-IL
Y
Yu Darvish
(SP) out — The Padres placed Darvish (elbow) on the restricted list Wednesday.
Out
Y
Yuki Matsui
(RP) 15-day IL — The Padres placed Matsui (groin) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
B
Bryan Hoeing
(RP) 15-day IL — The Padres placed Hoeing (elbow) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
W
Will Wagner
(3B) 10-day IL — The Padres placed Wagner (oblique) on the 10-day injured list Wednesday.
10-Day-IL
J
Jhony Brito
(RP) 60-day IL — Brito (forearm) has been throwing bullpens in Padres camp, per MLB.com.
60-Day-IL
B
Blake Hunt
(C) day-to-day — Hunt is dealing with an oblique injury and has been shut down from activity, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
Day-To-Day

Boston Red Sox

T
Triston Casas
(1B) 10-day IL — Manager Alex Cora said Saturday that Casas (knee) will begin a swinging progression Monday, Christopher Smith of MassLive.com reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Johan Oviedo
(SP) 15-day IL — Oviedo will open the season in Boston's bullpen, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports.
15-Day-IL
G
Garrett Whitlock
(RP) Paternity — Whitlock threw a perfect inning while striking out one batter in a 9-6 loss against Minnesota on Monday.
paternity
K
Kutter Crawford
(SP) 15-day IL — Red Sox manager Alex Cora said Wednesday that Crawford (wrist) is expected to make his first minor-league rehab start in about two weeks, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
P
Patrick Sandoval
(SP) 15-day IL — Sandoval (elbow) will begin a rehab assignment Tuesday at Double-A Portland on Sunday, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.
15-Day-IL
B
Brendan Rodgers
(2B) out — Rodgers (shoulder) re-signed Friday with the Red Sox on a two-year, minor-league contract, Chris Hatfield of SoxProspects.com reports.
Out
H
Hobie Harris
(RP) day-to-day — Red Sox manager Alex Cora said Monday that Harris has been shut down due to forearm tightness, Mac Cerullo of the Boston Herald reports.
Day-To-Day
A
Anthony Seigler
(2B) 10-day IL — Boston placed Seigler on the 10-day injured list Wednesday due to left knee patellar tendinopathy.
10-Day-IL
R
Romy Gonzalez
(1B) 60-day IL — Gonzalez will have his left shoulder injury evaluated Tuesday to determine whether he needs to undergo surgery, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Tanner Houck
(SP) 60-day IL — Houck (elbow) began a throwing program Monday with 25 throws from 45 feet, Ian Browne of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
San Diego Padres @ Boston Red Sox
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -1.5 (137)
Total Over 8.5
Key Injuries
Griffin Canning 15-Day-IL
Jason Adam 15-Day-IL
Triston Casas 10-Day-IL
Johan Oviedo 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

San Diego Padres @ Boston Red Sox

+47.0 EV
per $100 wagered
Boston Red Sox 74% High Edge
"BOS spread +47 EV (Pinnacle 40.8% fair vs +260) + 14.4% sharp divergence despite omega neutral spread"
31% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 31%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -18.7%
Line Movement
Current BOS -156 / SD +129 | Total 9.0
Movement No movement data
No positive EV on home ML (-156 requires 60.9% win prob); SD +129 offers +3.2 EV vs our 68.7% implied non-home prob
Model: 52.0% win rate | n=248 — MLB 52% N=248; spreads profitable lean tier; totals losing mid-tiers
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega model obliterated at 24 total vs market 9.0 (12-12 Poisson) but calibration kills high confidence on overs; massive +47 EV BOS spread per Pinnacle fair (40.8% vs Bovada +260) with 14.4% sharp edge confirms home lean despite neutral 0 spread. SD ML has slight model edge (+3.2 EV at +129) as market overprices BOS -156 vs our 31% win prob. H2H 3-2 vs series but mixed results; injuries hit pitching both sides.
SHARP MONEY
14.4% sharp edge on BOS spread (+260 EV at Bovada); strong divergence signal despite weak ML sharp (away)
Recommended Sizing
2.0u
Positive EV with multiple confirming factors. Standard sizing.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Boston Red Sox -1.5
+47.0 EV 74% 2.0u
MONEYLINE San Diego Padres None
+3.2 EV 64% 0.5u
TOTAL over 9.0
+2.1 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 58%
San Diego Padres 127
  • Omega ML implies Padres -206 (32.7% win prob undervalued vs market 44.1%)
SPREAD PICK
● 65%
Boston Red Sox -2.2
  • Sharp books price home spread at +159 fair odds vs Bovada +300 = +54.6% EV
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
OVER 8.0
  • Omega total 24.0 vs market 8.0 = 16pt edge from Poisson projecting 12-12 scores
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Boston spread +300 = +54.6 EV vs Pinnacle fair +159; omega total edge 24.0-8.0 but totals unprofitable
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