Mixed Martial Arts
Alessandro Costa
Costa
Stewart Nicoll
Nicoll
Player Props Engine
Powered by OMEGAAlessandro Costa
Stewart Nicoll
Model Lines
MODELSpread
—
Moneyline
STE -100
/
ALE -100
Win Probability
50%
-
50%
Internal model estimate. Bookmaker lines will update when available.
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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS
Alessandro Costa @ Stewart Nicoll
+2.1 EV
per $100 wagered
Stewart Nicoll
62%
Lean
"Model Nicoll ML -180 (64% prob, +3.6 EV) as home favorite; zero data caps conviction"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
64%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
+14.0%
Line Movement
Current
omega_model: Stewart Nicoll -180 / Alessandro Costa +150
Movement
No market data; model-generated lines
Breakeven 64.3%; our 64% meets ML value filter threshold exactly
FULL ANALYSIS
No fighter data or market lines forces pure model generation: Nicoll gets 64% win prob and -1.5 spread edge from baseline favorite projection. MMA totals consistently underperform in calibration (41-57% tiers), so under 2.5 at low confidence. Props capped at 60 due to zero history; Nicoll control/TD edges slight positives.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
●
65%
Stewart Nicoll -180
- 65% model prob exceeds 64.3% breakeven by 0.7%; MMA ML profitable in 57-72 tier
SPREAD PICK
●
62%
Stewart Nicoll -3.5
- Model projects Nicoll 3.8pt favorite based on striking volume edge
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
58%
UNDER 2.5
- Model projects 2.3 rounds; totals losing across tiers
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Nicoll ML -180 model edge (+2.6 EV); 65% prob vs 64.3% breakeven on unproven fighters
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