Home › Mixed Martial Arts › Tatsuro Taira @ Joshua Van
Mixed Martial Arts
Tatsuro Taira
Tatsuro Taira
Taira
Joshua Van
Van
Joshua Van
Full Game Analysis
Mixed Martial Arts
Ω OMEGA PICK
55% Lean
55% Lean
SPREAD
Joshua Van Joshua Van 0.0
"Joshua Van ML -110 (omega_model): $18k moderate whales 100% home +1.2 EV vs 50/50 posterior"
EV / $100
+1.2
Win Prob
53%
Edge
+3.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Joshua Van None
55%
TOTAL under 2.5
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Whale Activity Detected
$18470 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (100% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 19 trades Largest: $2000

Player Props Engine

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Tatsuro Taira

Joshua Van

ELO Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
—
Moneyline
JOS -100 / TAT -100
Win Probability
50% - 50%

ELO model estimate — not sportsbook lines. Market odds shown above when available from consensus sources.

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Tatsuro Taira @ Joshua Van
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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Tatsuro Taira @ Joshua Van

+1.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Joshua Van 55% Lean
"Joshua Van ML -110 (omega_model): $18k moderate whales 100% home +1.2 EV vs 50/50 posterior"
53% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 53%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +3.0%
Line Movement
Current omega_model: ML Joshua Van -110 / Tatsuro Taira -110 | Spread 0.0 | Total 2.5
Movement No movement (no market data)
Marginal +1.2 EV on Joshua Van at -110 from whale adjustment to 50/50 posterior; breakeven 52.4%
FULL ANALYSIS
50/50 Bayesian posterior with no odds/models/injuries; sole signal is $18k moderate whale volume (100% on Van). MMA flyweights average 2.3 rounds (under bias); home posterior slight lean after +2 whale/+3 edge adj. Poor 24% data caps at 55% LEAN (historical Lean ML 54.8%).
SHARP MONEY
Moderate whale volume ($18,470, 3 profitable wallets, 100% on home) equivalent to +2 confidence adjustment
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Joshua Van 0.0
+1.2 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Joshua Van None
+1.2 EV 55% 0.5u
TOTAL under 2.5
+1.0 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 55%
Joshua Van -110
  • Moderate prediction market whale volume ($18k at 100% confidence) on Joshua Van amid 50/50 Bayesian posterior
SPREAD PICK
○ 55%
Joshua Van 0.0
  • Moderate prediction market whale volume ($18k at 100% confidence) on Joshua Van amid 50/50 Bayesian posterior
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
UNDER 2.5
  • Flyweight pace favors finishes (under bias in 3-rounders); totals historically losing (46.7% Lean tier)
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Joshua Van ML (-108 model) +0.2 EV: $18k moderate whale steam (100% conviction) tips even 50/50 posterior
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