Home › UEFA Champions League › Arsenal @ Sporting CP
UEFA Champions League
Arsenal
Arsenal
Arsenal
1 - 0
Final
Sporting CP
CP
Sporting CP
Full Game Analysis
UEFA Champions League
Ω OMEGA PICK
59% Lean
59% Lean
SPREAD
Arsenal Arsenal -0.5
"Arsenal ML -110 vs Pinnacle fair -181 (+9.1 EV); 65% model > 52% implied with Martinelli edge"
EV / $100
+3.8
Win Prob
65%
Edge
+15.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Arsenal None
65%
TOTAL under 2.5
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

Player Props Results

Final Box Score

Arsenal

Sporting CP

Box Score + OMEGA Props

Box Score
FINAL
Arsenal
Arsenal
1
-
Sporting CP
CP
0
Arsenal -0.5
59% conf
W

Get Daily Picks

AI picks delivered to your inbox every morning.

You're in!

Already subscribed!

Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Arsenal @ Sporting CP

+3.8 EV
per $100 wagered
Arsenal 59% Lean
"Arsenal ML -110 vs Pinnacle fair -181 (+9.1 EV); 65% model > 52% implied with Martinelli edge"
65% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 65%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +15.0%
Line Movement
Current Arsenal -0.5 (-110/-120), Total 2.5, ML Sporting +310/Arsenal -110
Movement No movement data
+9.1 EV on Arsenal ML at -110 vs 64.4% Pinnacle fair value (our 65% > 52.4% implied)
FULL ANALYSIS
Pinnacle fair value prices Arsenal ML at -181 but DraftKings offers -110, creating +9.1 EV on our 65% projection vs 52% implied. Martinelli's 0.67 G/M pace exploits Sporting's UCL defense while Suarez faces elite Arsenal CBs. Spread offers marginal value but totals avoided (losing tier performance); data quality caps conviction.
SHARP MONEY
Pinnacle de-vigged fair value shows Arsenal ML -181 (64.4%) vs retail -110, indicating retail odds undervalue Arsenal edge
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.

OMEGA Replay

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Arsenal -0.5
+3.8 EV 59% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Arsenal None
+9.1 EV 65% 1u
TOTAL under 2.5
+1.2 EV 55%
MONEYLINE PICK
● 67%
Arsenal -135
  • Model prob 67% vs book 57.4% breakeven creates +8.1 EV; exceeds -135 threshold by 9.6%
SPREAD PICK
● 65%
Arsenal -0.5
  • Pinnacle fair value implies 67.2% Arsenal cover -0.5 vs DraftKings -150 pricing
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
UNDER 2.5
  • Pinnacle fair under 50.2% aligns with UCL knockout low-scoring bias
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Arsenal ML -135 +8.1 EV (67% model vs 57% breakeven), Pinnacle fair value confirms 67.2%
Partner Spotlight

Want to reach bettors who use data?

partnerships@degendailynews.com

21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-522-4700