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MLB
Detroit Tigers
Detroit Tigers
Tigers
New York Yankees
Yankees
New York Yankees
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +50.0% EV ALIGNED
63% Sharp Lean
63% Sharp Lean
TOTAL
over over 7.0
"Poisson says 22.5 runs, books say 7.0 — 15.5-run gap is absurd. OVER 7.0 at 12.8% EV with data caveats."
EV / $100
+12.8
Win Prob
65%
Edge
+7.4%
Size
1.0u
SPREAD New York Yankees -1.5
55%
MONEYLINE Detroit Tigers None
56%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 14.8% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$1675074 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (85% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 735 trades Kalshi: 102 trades Largest: $53821
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +1.5
Total
22.5
Edge: +15.5
Win Prob
31.9%
ML
213 / -213

Player Props Engine

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Detroit Tigers

New York Yankees

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -140 / 117 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -134 / 121 -
Value Line - -141 / 114 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (320) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (159) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 7.5 (105)
De-Vigged Fair Value 171 / -171 -128 / 128 O/U 112 / -112
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Detroit Tigers

J
Jackson Jobe
(SP) 60-day IL — Jobe (elbow) will throw live batting practice Saturday, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.
60-Day-IL
W
Wenceel Perez
(RF) 60-day IL — Tigers manager A.J. Hinch said Tuesday that Perez won't require surgery for the left orbital fracture he sustained June 16, but the outfielder lacks a clear timeline for a return, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports. "It's not, from what I understand, where it's going to be something long term," Hinch said of Perez's injury. "But it doesn't mean it heals itself fast. He's feeling better and better and reporting progress."
60-Day-IL
P
Parker Meadows
(CF) 60-day IL — Tigers manager A.J. Hinch said Tuesday that Meadows (forearm) has yet to resume hitting and is without a timeline to return from the 60-day injured list, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Burch Smith
(RP) 60-day IL — The Tigers transferred Smith (shoulder) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
G
Gleyber Torres
(2B) 10-day IL — Torres (oblique) received a cortisone injection Friday and is expected to start up his rehab program in the next day or two, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Justin Verlander
(SP) 60-day IL — Verlander (hip) has been scratched from a scheduled start Sunday versus the White Sox due to a left hamstring injury, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Javier Baez
(SS) 60-day IL — The Tigers transferred Baez (ankle) to the 60-day injured list Thursday, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Trey Sweeney
(SS) 60-day IL — Sweeney will undergo season-ending shoulder surgery this week, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Brant Hurter
(RP) 60-day IL — The Tigers placed Hurter on the 15-day injured list Sunday due to lumbar spine inflammation.
60-Day-IL
B
Bailey Horn
(RP) 60-day IL — Horn (elbow) began a throwing progression May 14, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Reese Olson
(SP) 60-day IL — The Tigers placed Olson on the 60-day injured list Tuesday after he underwent a right shoulder labral repair Feb. 2 that will result in him missing the 2026 season.
60-Day-IL
J
Josue Briceno
(C) day-to-day — Briceno said Friday that he expects to be sidelined a few months after having surgery Wednesday to repair a tendon in his right wrist, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
Day-To-Day

New York Yankees

J
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
(2B) day-to-day — Chisholm has been placed in concussion protocol after exiting Monday's game against the Tigers in the fourth inning following a collision with teammate Jasson Dominguez.
Day-To-Day
G
Giancarlo Stanton
(DH) 10-day IL — Yankees manager Aaron Boone said that Stanton (calf) has restarted a running program and will take live at-bats against rehabbing left-hander Max Fried (elbow) on Tuesday, David Lennon of Newsday reports.
10-Day-IL
M
Max Fried
(SP) 15-day IL — Yankees manager Aaron Boone said that Fried (elbow) will throw a two-inning simulated game Tuesday, David Lennon of Newsday reports.
15-Day-IL
T
Trent Grisham
(CF) 10-day IL — Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Monday that Grisham (hamstring) could be activated from the 10-day injured list Wednesday or Friday, Jorge Castillo of ESPN.com reports.
10-Day-IL
D
David Bednar
(RP) Paternity — The Yankees placed Bednar on the paternity list Monday.
paternity
A
Aaron Judge
(RF) 10-day IL — Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Friday that Judge isn't expected to be ready for a re-evaluation later this week, when he'll be at the four-week mark in his recovery from a stress fracture of the first rib on his right side, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports.
10-Day-IL
R
Ryan McMahon
(3B) 10-day IL — The Yankees placed McMahon on the 10-day injured list Wednesday due to a throat infection.
10-Day-IL
C
Clarke Schmidt
(SP) 60-day IL — Schmidt (elbow) tossed a side session Wednesday and is "a couple of weeks" away from facing live hitters, per MLB.com.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Detroit Tigers @ New York Yankees
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (320)
Total Over 7.5
Key Injuries
Jackson Jobe 60-Day-IL
Wenceel Perez 60-Day-IL
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Day-To-Day
Giancarlo Stanton 10-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Detroit Tigers @ New York Yankees

+12.8 EV
per $100 wagered
over 63% Sharp Lean
"Poisson says 22.5 runs, books say 7.0 — 15.5-run gap is absurd. OVER 7.0 at 12.8% EV with data caveats."
65% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 65%
Book Implied 58%
Edge +7.4%
Line Movement
Current Home -137 / Away +114 (ML), Home -1.5 / Away +1.5 (spread), o/u 7.0
Movement No significant line velocity detected. Market is settled.
Both teams have comparable injury impact (-7.8% each), no net advantage on either side. No weather concern (indoor/neutral venue likely). No schedule spot advantage — both teams have similar rest.
calibrated posterior for OVER 7.0 is 65.2% vs market 57.8%, yielding +12.8% EV. The scoring model scoring models project 22.5 combined runs — a total the market is dramatically underpricing. This is the single largest edge in the game.
FULL ANALYSIS
The Poisson model projects 22.5 combined runs vs market total of 7.0 — a 15.5-run gap that dwarfs any other edge in this game. Bayesian fusion backs OVER 7.0 at 65.2% vs 50% market (12.8% EV). No pitcher data is available, which adds uncertainty, but the model gap is so extreme that it's worth a small play even with degraded data. Sharp money favors the Yankees on the spread, but the total is where the real value sits. Whale volume is extreme ($1.67M) on home side, but this is spread/ML money — not total. The over is a pure model-versus-market play.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp edge on spread is 14.8% (strong signal) favoring home side. Pinnacle de-vigged fair value on spread: home 36.8%. This divergence indicates sharp operators are buying home spread at inflated odds. Whale signal also heavily on home (85% of $1.67M volume). However, for total — the true edge lies on OVER 7.0, where the Poisson model disagrees with market by 15.5 runs. No sharp divergence on total.
Recommended Sizing
1.0u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
TOTAL over 7.0
+12.8 EV 63% 1.0u
SPREAD New York Yankees -1.5
+2.1 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Detroit Tigers None
+4.8 EV 56% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 56%
Detroit Tigers 114
  • Bayesian fusion away posterior 52.4% vs market 42.2% (+10.2pp edge)
  • Poisson win probability 53.3% (Monte Carlo) vs market 42.2%
  • The model sees the Tigers as undervalued dogs
SPREAD PICK
○ 55%
New York Yankees -1.5
  • Sharp money signal strong (14.8% edge on home spread)
  • Whale volume $1.67M 85% on home
  • Pinnacle de-vigged fair value on home spread is 36.8% vs market 50.0% — actually indicates books see home as less likely to cover -1.5
  • This creates a contrarian situation: sharps and prediction markets differ sharply
  • Data quality is degraded so confidence is low
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 63%
OVER 7.0
  • Poisson models project 22.5 combined runs — a 15.5-run discrepancy vs market total of 7.0
  • Bayesian fusion posterior 65.2% vs market 50.0%
  • This is the most extreme model-vs-market gap on the board
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Models see +15.2pp edge on over 7.5 despite data issues; Tigers +2.0 slight edge but sharp money contradicts.
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