Home › Bundesliga › 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 @ FC Cologne
Bundesliga
1. FC Heidenheim 1846
1. FC Heidenheim 1846
1846
FC Cologne
Cologne
FC Cologne
Full Game Analysis
Bundesliga
Ω OMEGA PICK
51% Lean
51% Lean
SPREAD
FC Cologne FC Cologne -0.5
"Heidenheim ML +220: 48.8% posterior vs 31% implied (+56 EV); rare dog value in 2-way line"
EV / $100
-2.3
Win Prob
51%
Edge
+1.2%
MONEYLINE 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 None
49%
TOTAL under 3.5
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Whale Activity Detected
$104852 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (100% of whale volume).
Whales: home Kalshi: 146 trades Largest: $21760

Player Props Engine

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1. FC Heidenheim 1846

FC Cologne

ELO Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
-1.3
Moneyline
FC 120 / 1. -120
Win Probability
46% - 54%

ELO model estimate — not sportsbook lines. Market odds shown above when available from consensus sources.

Game Preview
1. FC Heidenheim 1846 @ FC Cologne
until kickoff
Analysis starts at kickoff

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

1. FC Heidenheim 1846 @ FC Cologne

+-2.3 EV
per $100 wagered
FC Cologne 51% Lean
"Heidenheim ML +220: 48.8% posterior vs 31% implied (+56 EV); rare dog value in 2-way line"
51% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 51%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +1.2%
Line Movement
Current Spread: FC Cologne -0.5 (-110) / 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 +0.5 (-125) | Total: 3.5 | ML: FC Cologne -105 / 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 +220
Movement No significant line movement detected.
Neutral on home ML EV=0; massive +56 EV on away ML due to +220 pricing vs 48.8% model prob.
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian posterior pegs Cologne win at 51.2% matching market prior, but +220 on Heidenheim (48.8% model) yields +56 EV per $100 due to pricing inefficiency. Spread offers no edge with away +0.5 juiced to -125 (48.8% cover prob <55.6% breakeven). Under 3.5 total leans value at Bundesliga norms (~3.0 gpg) with 55% model prob.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD FC Cologne -0.5
-2.3 EV 51%
MONEYLINE 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 None
+56.2 EV 49% 1.0u
TOTAL under 3.5
+2.2 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 49%
1. FC Heidenheim 1846 +220
  • Away posterior 48.8% win prob vs +220 breakeven 31.3%; huge EV despite low WR
SPREAD PICK
○ 51%
FC Cologne -0.5
  • Posterior 51.2% home win vs -110 implied 52.4%; marginal but neg EV
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
UNDER 3.5
  • Bundesliga avg ~3.0 goals/game; model leans under 3.5 at 55% prob vs 52.4% implied
About This Analysis

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Edge Summary
Heidenheim ML +220: 48.8% posterior vs 31% implied (+56 EV); rare dog value in 2-way line
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