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MLB
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers
St. Louis Cardinals
Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +50.0% EV ALIGNED
55% Lean
55% Lean
SPREAD
St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals -1.5
"Bayesian model sees 65% over at 8.0 — a +15pp edge in a low-total market; take the over."
EV / $100
+2.9
Win Prob
65%
Edge
+12.8%
MONEYLINE Milwaukee Brewers None
55%
TOTAL over 8.0
62%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 19.0% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: away Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$311748 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home Polymarket: 87 trades Largest: $17122
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: -1.5
Total
22.5
Edge: +14.5
Win Prob
34.5%
ML
190 / -190

Player Props Engine

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Milwaukee Brewers

St. Louis Cardinals

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -101 / -119 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 103 / -114 -
Value Line - -105 / -120 -
Sharp Action Best Line 3.0 (-450) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-169) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.0 (-101)
De-Vigged Fair Value -160 / 160 108 / -108 O/U 106 / -106
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Milwaukee Brewers

B
Brandon Woodruff
(SP) 15-day IL — The Brewers placed Woodruff on the 10-day injured list Sunday due to right shoulder inflammation, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
B
Brian Fitzpatrick
(RP) 60-day IL — Fitzpatrick (elbow) underwent Tommy John surgery over the past week, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
60-Day-IL
L
Logan Henderson
(SP) 15-day IL — Henderson (back) will be activated from the IL to make his next start for the Brewers, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Joel Kuhnel
(RP) 15-day IL — The Brewers placed Kuhnel on the 15-day injured list Saturday, retroactive to July 3, due to a right shoulder injury.
15-Day-IL
R
Rob Zastryzny
(RP) 15-day IL — Zastryzny (shoulder) will begin a rehab assignment with the Brewers' rookie-level Arizona Complex League affiliate Friday, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Carlos Rodriguez
(RP) 15-day IL — Rodriguez (shoulder) struck out a batter and allowed three earned runs on two hits and one walk across 1.1 innings Wednesday in a rehab start for the Brewers' rookie-level Arizona Complex League affiiate.
15-Day-IL
D
DL Hall
(RP) 15-day IL — Hall (pectoral) has progressed to throwing on flat ground from 60-to-75 feet, Jack Stern of BrewerFanatic.com reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Coleman Crow
(SP) 15-day IL — Crow (forearm) will throw a live batting practice session Tuesday, Jack Stern of BrewerFanatic.com reports.
15-Day-IL
B
Brandon Lockridge
(LF) 10-day IL — Lockridge's timeline for a return has been pushed back to late July after imaging showed a chondral flap in his right patella, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
10-Day-IL
Q
Quinn Priester
(SP) 60-day IL — Priester will undergo thoracic outlet compression surgery on Monday and is expected to be sidelined 8-to-10 months, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
60-Day-IL
A
Angel Zerpa
(RP) 60-day IL — The Brewers transferred Zerpa (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Sunday.
60-Day-IL

St. Louis Cardinals

R
Ramon Urias
(3B) 60-day IL — Urias (elbow) returned to St. Louis to undergo an examination on his left elbow, Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat reports.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 3.0 (-450)
Total Over 8.0
Key Injuries
Brandon Woodruff 15-Day-IL
Brian Fitzpatrick 60-Day-IL
Ramon Urias 60-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals

+2.9 EV
per $100 wagered
St. Louis Cardinals 55% Lean
"Bayesian model sees 65% over at 8.0 — a +15pp edge in a low-total market; take the over."
65% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 65%
Book Implied 52%
Edge +12.8%
Line Movement
Current Spread: 1.5, Total: 8.0, Moneyline: Home -101 / Away -120
Movement No significant movement detected
Strong positive EV driven by calibrated posterior of 65.2% vs market implied 52.4% at -110 odds.
FULL ANALYSIS
The market total of 8.0 is suspiciously low for an MLB game, and the Bayesian fusion model projects a 65.2% probability of the over, representing a +15.2pp edge. Despite degraded data quality and missing pitcher info, the model consensus strongly favors scoring. Sharp money is split, but the quantitative edge on the over is too large to ignore. Lean over 8.0.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD St. Louis Cardinals -1.5
+2.9 EV 55%
MONEYLINE Milwaukee Brewers None
-1.8 EV 55%
TOTAL over 8.0
+24.5 EV 62% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 55%
Milwaukee Brewers -120
  • No edge: Bayesian posterior for away win is 53.6% vs implied 54.55% at -120
  • Negative EV
SPREAD PICK
○ 55%
St. Louis Cardinals -1.5
  • Bayesian posterior gives home +1.5 a 53.9% cover probability, a +3.9pp edge, but below the 8% edge floor required for MLB picks per 90-day table
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 62%
OVER 8.0
  • Bayesian fusion projects 65.2% probability of over 8.0, a +15.2pp edge vs market implied 50%
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Brewers slight edge at pick-em (+0.6pp Bayesian) with whale confirmation ($71K on away) but degraded data (56%) and VERY_LOW model agreement — 0.5u only
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