Home › Serie A › Lazio @ Bologna
Serie A
Lazio
Lazio
Lazio
Bologna
Bologna
Bologna
Full Game Analysis
Serie A
Ω OMEGA PICK
TOSS-UP
58 TOSS-UP
SPREAD
Bologna Bologna -0.5
"Bologna +130 ML value vs Lazio away struggles, under 2.5 at +3.8 EV on tepid attacks"
EV / $100
+1.2
Win Prob
52%
Edge
+2.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Bologna
60%
TOTAL Under 2.5 2.5
62%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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Lazio

Bologna

AI Pick

VALUE
58
VALUE
Spread
Lazio
Lazio
Expected Value
+1.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Ω TOSS_UP 58% "Bologna +130 ML value vs Lazio away struggles, under 2.5 at +3.8 EV on tepid att"

Market overprices Bologna home favorite status vs Lazio's superior Serie A pedigree (top-4 historically vs Bologna mid-table)

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Lazio @ Bologna

+1.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Bologna 58% TOSS-UP
"Bologna +130 ML value vs Lazio away struggles, under 2.5 at +3.8 EV on tepid attacks"
52% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 52%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +2.0%
Line Movement
Current BOL -0.5 (125 / -170), ML Bologna 130 / Lazio 225, Total 2.5
Movement No movement data
No edge on Bologna ML; Lazio undervalued but insufficient separation from vig
FULL ANALYSIS
Bologna's 12-6-11 record edges Lazio's 10-10-9 but away form unlisted; +130 ML has slim value on home cooking at Dall'Ara. Leaders underwhelm (Orsolini 7G/27, Isaksen 4G/23) projecting sub-2.5 goals in low-xG spot. Zero model data caps conviction but CLV favors home hold.
Kelly Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Bologna -0.5
+1.2 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Bologna
+2.1 EV 60% 0.5u
TOTAL Under 2.5 2.5
+3.8 EV 62% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 56%
Bologna +135
  • Home ML offers +EV at current price but thin edge due to vig and lack of model data
SPREAD PICK
○ 58%
Lazio
  • Market overprices Bologna home favorite status vs Lazio's superior Serie A pedigree (top-4 historically vs Bologna mid-table)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 60%
UNDER 2.5 2.5
  • Serie A averages 2.4 goals/game; low leaders totals (max 7G) project under in neutral matchup
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Bologna home fave overpriced vs Lazio edge, Under 2.5 +2.1 EV on 2.4 Serie A avg but PASS thin margins (N=0)
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