Home › Mixed Martial Arts › Jamie Siraj @ John Yannis
Mixed Martial Arts
Jamie Siraj
Jamie Siraj
Siraj
John Yannis
Yannis
John Yannis
Full Game Analysis
Mixed Martial Arts
Ω OMEGA PICK
56% Lean
56% Lean
SPREAD
John Yannis John Yannis -0.5
"Data-poor ARTS pick'em leans John Yannis ML -115 (+3.4 EV) on 54% model prob vs 53.5% breakeven"
EV / $100
+3.1
Win Prob
54%
Edge
+4.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE John Yannis None
57%
TOTAL under 2.5
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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Jamie Siraj

John Yannis

Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
—
Moneyline
JOH -100 / JAM -100
Win Probability
50% - 50%

Internal model estimate. Bookmaker lines will update when available.

Game Preview
Jamie Siraj @ John Yannis
until tip-off
Analysis starts at tip-off

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Jamie Siraj @ John Yannis

+3.1 EV
per $100 wagered
John Yannis 56% Lean Raw
"Data-poor ARTS pick'em leans John Yannis ML -115 (+3.4 EV) on 54% model prob vs 53.5% breakeven"
54% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 54%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +4.0%
Line Movement
Current omega_model: Spread John Yannis -0.5 (-110) / Jamie Siraj +0.5 (-110); ML John Yannis -115 / Jamie Siraj -105; Total 2.5 (-110 both sides)
Movement N/A
Marginal +EV on home side at model -110/-115 pricing vs our 54% probability.
FULL ANALYSIS
No market odds, injuries, or models available; Bayesian fusion defaults to 50/50 but omega_model applies 54% home win prob for slight +EV at generated lines. Data quality 16% forces Lean tier only with -8 pt reduction. Moneylines preferred over losing totals/props calibration. Props are unvalidated MMA-style projections capped at 60.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD John Yannis -0.5
+3.1 EV 56% 0.5u
MONEYLINE John Yannis None
+3.4 EV 57% 0.5u
TOTAL under 2.5
+2.1 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 57%
John Yannis -115
  • 54% win prob exceeds -115 breakeven of 53.5%; meets 5% confidence buffer rule
SPREAD PICK
○ 56%
John Yannis -0.5
  • Bayesian posterior fused to 54% home cover vs -110 implied 52.4% breakeven
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
UNDER 2.5
  • Model projects 2.3 expected rounds with 54% under probability vs implied 52.4%
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
John Yannis ML -125 (omega_model): 60% prob vs 55.6% implied (+4.4% edge, +8 EV/100)
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