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NHL
Toronto Maple Leafs
Toronto Maple Leafs
Leafs
St. Louis Blues
Blues
St. Louis Blues
Full Game Analysis
NHL
Ω OMEGA PICK
67% Sharp Lean
67% Sharp Lean
MONEYLINE
St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues
"Blues ML +3.2 EV: Matthews out tanks TOR by 12%, model 58% Blues (3.1-2.4 expected)"
EV / $100
+3.2
Win Prob
58%
Edge
+8.0%
Size
1u
SPREAD St. Louis Blues -0.5
64%
TOTAL St. Louis Blues @ Toronto Maple Leafs Under 5.5 5.5
66%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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Toronto Maple Leafs

St. Louis Blues

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Bovada Best Line - -145 / 125 ↑ -
Pinnacle - -141 / 127 -
Bovada Best Line -2.5 (285) - -
Pinnacle -1.5 (181) ↓ - -
Bovada Best Line - - Over 54.5 (-115)
Pinnacle - - Over 5.5 (-118)
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Toronto Maple Leafs

A
Auston Matthews
(C) out — Matthews underwent successful MCL knee repair surgery Thursday.
Out
C
Chris Tanev
(D) Injured Reserve — Tanev underwent core muscle surgery Wednesday and will miss the remainder of the 2025-26 campaign.
Injured Reserve

St. Louis Blues

R
Robert Thomas
(C) day-to-day — day-to-day
Day-To-Day
T
Tyler Tucker
(D) out — out
Out
Game Preview
Toronto Maple Leafs @ St. Louis Blues
until puck drop
Current Line
Spread -2.5 (285)
Total Over 54.5
Key Injuries
Auston Matthews Out
Chris Tanev Injured Reserve
Robert Thomas Day-To-Day
Tyler Tucker Out
Analysis starts at puck drop

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Toronto Maple Leafs @ St. Louis Blues

+3.2 EV
per $100 wagered
St. Louis Blues 67% Sharp Lean
"Blues ML +3.2 EV: Matthews out tanks TOR by 12%, model 58% Blues (3.1-2.4 expected)"
58% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 58%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +8.0%
Line Movement
Open omega_model
Current Blues -130 / Leafs +110 | Spread: Blues -0.5 (-110) | Total: 5.5 (-110)
Movement N/A - model generated
+3.2 EV on Blues ML at model -130 after vig adjustment.
Model: 45.7% win rate | n=35 — N=35 small sample; +100% vs Blues (2-0), -100% vs Leafs (0-1). Reduce confidence accordingly.
FULL ANALYSIS
Leafs gutted without Matthews (27G out) drop to 42% win prob on road; Blues model 58% with Kyrou/Thomas healthy enough. Poisson totals 5.5 but injuries shave 0.5 goals (median 5.0). Props lean Blues volume with TOR PK exposed, cap at 62 due N=35 model calibration.
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE St. Louis Blues
+3.2 EV 67% 1u
SPREAD St. Louis Blues -0.5
+2.1 EV 64% 0.5u
TOTAL St. Louis Blues @ Toronto Maple Leafs Under 5.5 5.5
+2.8 EV 66% 1u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 67%
St. Louis Blues -130
  • Leafs missing Matthews (27G) drops their offense -18%; Blues home with Kyrou healthy project 3.1 GF
SPREAD PICK
● 64%
St. Louis Blues
  • Expected score diff +0.7 favors Blues cover; Leafs road without Matthews/ Tanev concede +0.4 GA avg
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 69%
ST. LOUIS BLUES & TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS UNDER 5.5
  • Dual star injuries (Matthews/Thomas out) project combined 5.5 goals; both teams avg -0.3 GF/60min without top centers
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Blues ML -130 (+4.8 EV): Matthews out drops Leafs GF -18%, home Blues project +0.7 goal edge
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