Calgary Flames @ Seattle Kraken

NHL

Calgary Flames

Flames

Seattle Kraken

Kraken

Full Game Analysis

NHL

Ω DDN SI PICK +5.5% EV

57% Lean

MONEYLINE

Seattle Kraken None

"Skip the juiced traps: Over 6.5 at +107 is the only +EV spot (+5.5% vs Pinnacle fair) in a Kraken-Flakes spot both sides key-injured — half unit, take it early."

EV / $100

+0.1

Win Prob

58%

Edge

+0.1%

Size

0.5u

SPREAD Calgary Flames 1.5

64%

TOTAL over 6.5

55%

Full DDN SI Breakdown

Sharp Money Signal

Sharp money favors over side. 1.5% divergence on total with moderate signal. RLM detected on total.

Sharp: over Boost: +1

Whale Activity Detected

$62804 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.

Whales: home Polymarket: 20 trades Kalshi: 160 trades Largest: $4451

Player Props Engine

Calgary Flames

Seattle Kraken

Betting Odds Comparison

Source	Spread	Moneyline	Total
Sharp Action Best Line	-	-137 / 117 ↑	-
Market Consensus	-	-133 / 118	-
Value Line	-	-134 / 112	-
Sharp Action Best Line	-1.5 (180)	-	-
Market Consensus	-1.5 (184) ↓	-	-
Value Line	-1.5 (185) ↓	-	-
Sharp Action Best Line	-	-	Over 6.0 (-117)
Market Consensus	-	-	Over 6.0 (-111)
Value Line	-	-	Over 6.5 (107)
De-Vigged Fair Value	202 / -202	-126 / 126	O/U -104 / 104

Line Movement

Open Current

Injury Report

Calgary Flames

Brennan Othmann

(LW) out — out

Out

Connor Zary

Out

Devin Cooley

(G) Injured Reserve — ir

Injured Reserve

Jonathan Huberdeau

(LW) Injured Reserve — Huberdeau (hip) skated with his teammates Saturday, but he isn't close to returning, Pat Steinberg of QR Calgary 770 AM reports.

Injured Reserve

Samuel Honzek

(LW) Injured Reserve — ir

Injured Reserve

Seattle Kraken

Curtis Douglas

Day-To-Day

Jared McCann

(LW) Injured Reserve — McCann (lower body) will be out for approximately 10 weeks, the team announced Sunday.

Injured Reserve

Jacob Melanson

(RW) Injured Reserve — Melanson's upper-body injury was diagnosed Saturday as an anterior mediastinum hematoma with vascular pseudo aneurysm. He will continue to be evaluated and is out indefinitely.

Injured Reserve

Ryan Lindgren

(D) Injured Reserve — Lindgren (upper body) was placed on injured reserve by the Kraken on Thursday and is expected to miss four to six weeks.

Injured Reserve

Jake O'Brien

Injured Reserve

Game Preview

until puck drop

Current Line

Spread -1.5 (180)

Total Over 6.0

Key Injuries

Brennan Othmann Out

Connor Zary Out

Curtis Douglas Day-To-Day

Jared McCann Injured Reserve

Analysis starts at puck drop

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Recorded picks and reasons

These are the saved selections and explanations from the public results record. The analysis below may have been refreshed later.

Spread: Calgary Flames 1.5 (-218) PENDING · Recorded 2026-11-03T21:39:25.814289 UTC

Away +1.5 cover posterior 65.3% aligns with Market Consensus fair value 66.9% (sharp side away) and equal -25% injury impact both teams, but -218 requires 68.6% to break even — the disc price eats the entire edge.

Moneyline: Seattle Kraken (-135) PENDING · Recorded 2026-11-03T02:12:42.974325 UTC

calibrated 57.5% vs -135 implied 57.4% — home side on cross-market confirmed signal (ML+spread aligned) with identical -25% injury impact on both teams, but effectively no pricing edge.

Total: over 6.5 (+107) PENDING · Recorded 2026-11-04T02:32:32.743452 UTC

+107 Over carries the slate's best +EV spot: Market Consensus fair value 50.9% vs +107 implied 48.3% = +5.5% EV with 1.5% sharp divergence toward the over and RLM confirming.

DDN SI ANALYSIS

Calgary Flames @ Seattle Kraken

+0.1 EV

per $100 wagered

Seattle Kraken 57% Lean

Untested not on slate

"Skip the juiced traps: Over 6.5 at +107 is the only +EV spot (+5.5% vs Pinnacle fair) in a Kraken-Flakes spot both sides key-injured — half unit, take it early."

EV Breakdown

Model Prob 58%

Book Implied 57%

Edge +0.1%

Line Movement

Current Home -1.5 (180/-218), ML Home -135 / Away +114, Total 6.5 (DraftKings)

Movement No significant line movement detected

Moneyline edge is within the 2% no-edge zone — market is efficient. The only real price gap is retail total Over at +107 vs Market Consensus fair value 50.9% (+5.5% EV), though the calibrated total posterior leans under (54.9%) — conflicting signals reduce conviction.

FULL ANALYSIS

Seattle -135 with home ML and spread cross-market confirmed, but posterior 57.5% vs 57.4% implied means every dollar of edge is vig. The Calgary +1.5 at -218 requires 68.6% against a 65.3-66.9% fair range — pure juice trap on the sharp-away side. Only playable spot is Over 6.5 at +107 vs 50.9% Pinnacle fair for +5.5%, and post-pause NHL discipline keeps that a half-unit lean while the Bayesian total posterior still whispers under at 54.9%.

Recommended Sizing

0.5u

Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE

MONEYLINE Seattle Kraken None

+0.1 EV 57% 0.5u

SPREAD Calgary Flames 1.5

-3.6 EV 64% 0.5u

TOTAL over 6.5

+5.5 EV 55% 0.5u

MONEYLINE PICK

○ 57%

Seattle Kraken -135

calibrated 57.5% vs -135 implied 57.4% — home side on cross-market confirmed signal (ML+spread aligned) with identical -25% injury impact on both teams, but effectively no pricing edge

SPREAD PICK

● 64%

Calgary Flames 1.5

Away +1.5 cover posterior 65.3% aligns with Market Consensus fair value 66.9% (sharp side away) and equal -25% injury impact both teams, but -218 requires 68.6% to break even — the disc price eats the entire edge

TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)

○ 55%

OVER 6.5

+107 Over carries the slate's best +EV spot: Market Consensus fair value 50.9% vs +107 implied 48.3% = +5.5% EV with 1.5% sharp divergence toward the over and RLM confirming

About This Analysis

DDN SI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary

Depleted on both nets — McCann/Lindgren out for Seattle, Huberdeau/Zary/Cooley out for Calgary — model says under 5.5, but zero market edge and NHL on pause means PASS sizing.

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