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Athletics
Athletics
Athletics
New York Yankees
Yankees
New York Yankees
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
58% Lean
58% Lean
SPREAD
Athletics Athletics +194
"Omega 0.0 spread vs -194 market (-19.6pt edge) + NYY missing Cole/Rodon/Volpe = Athletics ML +159 (+3.8 EV)"
EV / $100
+2.1
Win Prob
46%
Edge
-3.6%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Athletics None
60%
TOTAL over 8.5
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +194.0
Total
24.0
Edge: +15.5
Win Prob
40.4%
ML
147 / -147

Player Props Engine

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Athletics

New York Yankees

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Market Consensus - -211 / 187 ↑ -
Market Consensus -1.5 (-104) - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.5 (-109)
De-Vigged Fair Value 102 / -102 -200 / 200 O/U -102 / 102
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Athletics

No injuries reported

New York Yankees

C
Carlos Rodon
(SP) 15-day IL — Rodon (elbow/hamstring) experienced "some soreness" following his workout Saturday, but manager Aaron Boone said that the soreness is "to be expected," Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
G
Gerrit Cole
(SP) 15-day IL — Cole (elbow) tossed one simulated inning of live batting practice Wednesday, per MLB.com.
15-Day-IL
R
Rafael Montero
(RP) out — Montero continues to have visa issues and hasn't yet arrived at Yankees camp, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
Out
A
Anthony Volpe
(SS) 10-day IL — Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Tuesday on the "Talkin' Yanks" podcast by Jomboy Media that Volpe (shoulder) will take live batting practice Wednesday.
10-Day-IL
T
Travis MacGregor
(SP) day-to-day — MacGregor signed a minor-league contract with the Angels on Monday.
Day-To-Day
C
Clarke Schmidt
(SP) 60-day IL — Schmidt (elbow) is tentatively slated to begin throwing bullpens before the end of March and could face hitters in April or May, per MLB.com.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Athletics @ New York Yankees
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -1.5 (-104)
Total Over 8.5
Key Injuries
Carlos Rodon 15-Day-IL
Gerrit Cole 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Athletics @ New York Yankees

+2.1 EV
per $100 wagered
Athletics 58% Lean
"Omega 0.0 spread vs -194 market (-19.6pt edge) + NYY missing Cole/Rodon/Volpe = Athletics ML +159 (+3.8 EV)"
46% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 46%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -3.6%
Line Movement
Current NYY -194 / O/U 8.5
Movement No movement data
Heavy negative EV on NYY ML (-194 requires 66% win rate to break even, model sees only 46.4%). Athletics ML +159 offers value but lacks Tier 1 confirmation.
Model: 52.3% win rate | n=352 — MLB 184-168 (52.3%, N=352); leans profitable on ML/spread but model vs NYY 8-12
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega line sees dead even matchup (12-12 expected, 0.0 spread) vs market's -194 NYY juice despite Cole/Rodon/Volpe out. Monte Carlo confirms no edge (46.4% home win) but Athletics ML +159 offers +3.8 EV since breakeven 38.6% < model 46.4%. Yesterday's H2H mixed (OAK ML loss, NYY spread win, under push); fade the overjuiced favorite with injury cascade.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Athletics +194
+2.1 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Athletics None
+3.8 EV 60% 0.5u
TOTAL over 8.5
+1.2 EV 55%
MONEYLINE PICK
● 60%
New York Yankees -145
  • 60% model win prob beats -145 breakeven (59.2%) with home advantage
SPREAD PICK
○ 58%
New York Yankees -1.5
  • Yankees superior roster depth despite injuries projects +1.5 run edge in MC sims
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
UNDER 8.0
  • Early season pitching focus + Schlittler 0.00 ERA projects 7.8 combined runs
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Yankees 60% win prob (+2.4 EV ML) home vs depleted Athletics despite injuries, Schlittler dominates
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