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Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks
Diamondbac
Seattle Mariners
Mariners
Seattle Mariners
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +50.0% EV
55% Lean
55% Lean
SPREAD
Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks 1.5
"Over 7.5: Bayesian posterior gives 65.2% probability vs market's 50.0%, a massive +15.2pp edge. Monte Carlo projects 19.9 combined runs."
EV / $100
+2.4
Win Prob
65%
Edge
+5.4%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Arizona Diamondbacks None
55%
TOTAL over 7.5
65%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 15.2% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$2085713 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (72% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 634 trades Kalshi: 941 trades Largest: $147637
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +149.0
Total
22.5
Edge: +15.0
Win Prob
37.1%
ML
170 / -170

Player Props Engine

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Arizona Diamondbacks

Seattle Mariners

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -153 / 128 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -147 / 133 -
Value Line - -159 / 128 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (295) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (147) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 7.5 (100)
De-Vigged Fair Value 158 / -158 -140 / 140 O/U 107 / -107
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Arizona Diamondbacks

N
Nolan Arenado
(3B) day-to-day — Arenado (undisclosed) was scratched from Saturday's lineup against the Mariners.
Day-To-Day
C
Corbin Burnes
(SP) 60-day IL — Burnes (elbow) threw to a hitter Friday for the first time post-surgery, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jordan Lawlar
(LF) 60-day IL — Lawlar (wrist) took live at-bats Friday, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
P
Pavin Smith
(1B) 60-day IL — Manager Torey Lovullo said Tuesday that Smith (elbow) could return from the injured list sometime during Arizona's series against the Dodgers next week, Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic reports.
60-Day-IL
H
Hayden Durke
(RP) Developmental List
developmental list
A
A.J. Puk
(RP) 60-day IL — Diamondbacks general manager Mike Hazen said Monday that Puk (elbow) will need 7-to-8 rehab appearances before returning from the 60-day injured list, Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic reports.
60-Day-IL
A
A.J. Vukovich
(CF) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
L
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
(LF) 10-day IL — Gurriel's hamstring injury is believed to be fairly minor, Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic reports. Manager Torey Lovullo said Saturday the hope is Gurriel will be able to return from the injured list when first eligible.
10-Day-IL
D
Derek Law
(RP) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
S
Spencer Giesting
(SP) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
J
James McCann
(C) 10-day IL — Manager Torey Lovullo said Tuesday that McCann (quad) will likely be sidelined for 4-to-6 weeks, Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic reports.
10-Day-IL
C
Carlos Santana
(1B) 10-day IL — Santana suffered a setback with his right adductor strain Sunday while on a rehab assignment with Triple-A Reno, Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Justin Martinez
(RP) 60-day IL — Martinez (elbow) tossed a bullpen session Friday, Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic reports.
60-Day-IL
C
Cristian Mena
(RP) 60-day IL — The Diamondbacks placed Mena (shoulder) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
B
Blake Walston
(SP) 60-day IL — Arizona placed Walston (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
A
Andrew Saalfrank
(RP) 60-day IL — Saalfrank (shoulder) said Wednesday that he expects to be sidelined 10-16 months, Arizona Sports reports.
60-Day-IL
K
Kyle Amendt
(RP) day-to-day — Amendt was invited to major-league spring training by the Diamondbacks, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.
Day-To-Day

Seattle Mariners

C
Cal Raleigh
(C) 10-day IL — Raleigh (oblique) began taking swings in a batting cage Friday, Adam Jude of The Seattle Times reports
10-Day-IL
M
Miles Mastrobuoni
(3B) 60-day IL — Mastrobuoni (calf) began a rehab assignment Monday with the Mariners' Arizona Complex League affiliate, going 0-for-2 with a 1:1 K:BB.
60-Day-IL
S
Spencer Packard
(OF) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
B
Brendan Donovan
(3B) 10-day IL — Mariners general manager Justin Hollander said Sunday that Donovan will receive a platelet-rich plasma injection for his strained left groin as well as his adductor and is expected to resume baseball activity in 2-to-3 weeks, Daniel Kramer of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
T
Teddy McGraw
(SP) day-to-day — McGraw is working his way back from right elbow issues, Jonathan Mayo of MLB Pipeline reports.
Day-To-Day
L
Logan Evans
(SP) 60-day IL — The Mariners placed Evans (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Monday.
60-Day-IL
C
Carlos Vargas
(RP) 60-day IL — Vargas (lat) has suffered a setback in his recovery, Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times reports.
60-Day-IL
W
Will Wilson
(3B) 10-day IL — The Mariners placed Wilson on the 10-day injured list Saturday due to a fractured left thumb.
10-Day-IL
Game Preview
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Seattle Mariners
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (295)
Total Over 7.5
Key Injuries
Nolan Arenado Day-To-Day
Corbin Burnes 60-Day-IL
Cal Raleigh 10-Day-IL
Miles Mastrobuoni 60-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Seattle Mariners

+2.4 EV
per $100 wagered
Arizona Diamondbacks 55% Lean
"Over 7.5: Bayesian posterior gives 65.2% probability vs market's 50.0%, a massive +15.2pp edge. Monte Carlo projects 19.9 combined runs."
65% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 65%
Book Implied 60%
Edge +5.4%
Line Movement
Current SEA -149 / ARI +124, Total 7.5
Movement No significant movement detected
No situational flags detected
Strong positive EV on the over 7.5. The market total is set at 7.5, but the calibrated gives the over a 65.2% probability. The simulation simulation projects a combined score of 19.9 runs, further confirming the massive edge.
FULL ANALYSIS
The market has this game pegged as a low-scoring affair with a total of 7.5, but the Bayesian fusion model and Monte Carlo simulations both project a combined score of nearly 20 runs. The over 7.5 has a massive +15.2pp edge, making it the strongest play on the board. Sharp money is on the home side, but the +EV analysis shows the best value on the away spread and moneyline. The Diamondbacks are undervalued as +124 underdogs, with the model seeing a near pick-em game. The over is the primary play, with a lean on Arizona's spread and moneyline as secondary options.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp money is heavily favoring the home side on the spread, with a 15.2% divergence and strong signal. Whale activity is also extreme, with $2M+ in volume on the home side. However, the total market shows no directional lean, and the sharpest edge is on the over.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Arizona Diamondbacks 1.5
+2.4 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Arizona Diamondbacks None
+2.4 EV 55% 0.5u
TOTAL over 7.5
+9.0 EV 65% 1u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 55%
Arizona Diamondbacks 124
  • Bayesian posterior gives away side 45.7% win probability vs market's 40.2%, a +5.5pp edge
  • Monte Carlo projects a near pick-em game (47.9% home win)
SPREAD PICK
○ 55%
Arizona Diamondbacks 1.5
  • Bayesian posterior shows away side with +5.5pp edge vs market, and Monte Carlo projects a near pick-em game (47.9% home win)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 65%
OVER 7.5
  • Bayesian posterior gives over 65.2% probability vs market's 50.0%, a massive +15.2pp edge
  • Monte Carlo projects a combined score of 19.9 runs
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Seattle spread +300 vs Bovada is a 50% EV mispricing — Pinnacle fair value is ~+160 while retail is juicing home team, take it before sharp money closes the gap
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